IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF CORRELATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE OPTIMUM PORTFOLIOS

To implement mean variance analysis one needs a technique for forecasting correlation coefficients. In this article we investigate the ability of several techniques to forecast correlation coefficients between securities. We find that separately forecasting the average level of pairwise correlations and individual pair-wise differences from the average improves forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, forming homogenous groups of firms on the basis of industry membership or firm attributes (eg. Size) improves forecast accuracy. Accuracy is evaluated in two ways: First, in terms of the error in estimating future correlation coefficients. Second, in the characteristics of portfolios formed on the basis of each forecasting technique. The ranking of forecasting techniques is robust across both methods of evaluation and the better techniques outperform prior suggestions in the literature of financial economics

Molecular hydrogen beyond the optical edge of an isolated spiral galaxy

We know little about the outermost portions of galaxies because there is little light coming from them. We do know that in many cases atomic hydrogen (HI) extends well beyond the optical radius \cite{Casertano91}. In the centers of galaxies, however, molecular hydrogen (H2) usually dominates by a large factor, raising the question of whether H2 is abundant also in the outer regions but hitherto unseen.Here we report the detection of emission from carbon monoxide (CO), the most abundant tracer of H2, beyond the optical radius of the nearby galaxy NGC 4414. The molecular clouds probably formed in the regions of relatively high HI column density and in the absence of spiral density waves. The relative strength of the lines from the two lowest rotational levels indicates that both the temperature and density of the H2 are quite low compared to conditions closer to the center. The inferred surface density of the molecular material continues the monotonic decrease from the inner regions. We conclude that while molecular clouds can form in the outer region of this galaxy, there is little mass associated with them.Comment: 3 Nature page

Kepler eclipsing binary stars. VII. the catalogue of eclipsing binaries found in the entire Kepler data set

The primary Kepler Mission provided nearly continuous monitoring of ~200,000 objects with unprecedented photometric precision. We present the final catalog of eclipsing binary systems within the 105 deg2 Kepler field of view. This release incorporates the full extent of the data from the primary mission (Q0-Q17 Data Release). As a result, new systems have been added, additional false positives have been removed, ephemerides and principal parameters have been recomputed, classifications have been revised to rely on analytical models, and eclipse timing variations have been computed for each system. We identify several classes of systems including those that exhibit tertiary eclipse events, systems that show clear evidence of additional bodies, heartbeat systems, systems with changing eclipse depths, and systems exhibiting only one eclipse event over the duration of the mission. We have updated the period and galactic latitude distribution diagrams and included a catalog completeness evaluation. The total number of identified eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems in the Kepler field of view has increased to 2878, 1.3% of all observed Kepler targets

Gender differences in the association between adiposity and probable major depression: a cross-sectional study of 140,564 UK Biobank participants

<b>Background</b><p></p> Previous studies on the association between adiposity and mood disorder have produced contradictory results, and few have used measurements other than body mass index (BMI). We examined the association between probable major depression and several measurements of adiposity: BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-hip-ratio (WHR), and body fat percentage (BF%).<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> We conducted a cross-sectional study using baseline data on the sub-group of UK Biobank participants who were assessed for mood disorder. Multivariate logistic regression models were used, adjusting for potential confounders including: demographic and life-style factors, comorbidity and psychotropic medication.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> Of the 140,564 eligible participants, evidence of probable major depression was reported by 30,145 (21.5%). The fully adjusted odds ratios (OR) for obese participants were 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12, 1.20) using BMI, 1.15 (95% CI 1.11, 1.19) using WC, 1.09 (95% CI 1.05, 1.13) using WHR and 1.18 (95% CI 1.12, 1.25) using BF% (all p <0.001). There was a significant interaction between adiposity and gender (p = 0.001). Overweight women were at increased risk of depression with a dose response relationship across the overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m2), obese I (30.0-34.9 kg/m2), II (35.0-39.9 kg/m2) and III (≥40.0 kg/m2) categories; fully adjusted ORs 1.14, 1.20, 1.29 and 1.48, respectively (all p < 0.001). In contrast, only obese III men had significantly increased risk of depression (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.08, 1.54, p = 0.006).<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b><p></p> Adiposity was associated with probable major depression, irrespective of the measurement used. The association was stronger in women than men. Physicians managing overweight and obese women should be alert to this increased risk

Intermediate and extreme mass-ratio inspirals — astrophysics, science applications and detection using LISA

Black hole binaries with extreme (gtrsim104:1) or intermediate (~102–104:1) mass ratios are among the most interesting gravitational wave sources that are expected to be detected by the proposed laser interferometer space antenna (LISA). These sources have the potential to tell us much about astrophysics, but are also of unique importance for testing aspects of the general theory of relativity in the strong field regime. Here we discuss these sources from the perspectives of astrophysics, data analysis and applications to testing general relativity, providing both a description of the current state of knowledge and an outline of some of the outstanding questions that still need to be addressed. This review grew out of discussions at a workshop in September 2006 hosted by the Albert Einstein Institute in Golm, Germany

Risky business: factor analysis of survey data – assessing the probability of incorrect dimensionalisation

This paper undertakes a systematic assessment of the extent to which factor analysis the correct number of latent dimensions (factors) when applied to ordered categorical survey items (so-called Likert items). We simulate 2400 data sets of uni-dimensional Likert items that vary systematically over a range of conditions such as the underlying population distribution, the number of items, the level of random error, and characteristics of items and item-sets. Each of these datasets is factor analysed in a variety of ways that are frequently used in the extant literature, or that are recommended in current methodological texts. These include exploratory factor retention heuristics such as Kaiser’s criterion, Parallel Analysis and a non-graphical scree test, and (for exploratory and confirmatory analyses) evaluations of model fit. These analyses are conducted on the basis of Pearson and polychoric correlations.We find that, irrespective of the particular mode of analysis, factor analysis applied to ordered-categorical survey data very often leads to over-dimensionalisation. The magnitude of this risk depends on the specific way in which factor analysis is conducted, the number of items, the properties of the set of items, and the underlying population distribution. The paper concludes with a discussion of the consequences of overdimensionalisation, and a brief mention of alternative modes of analysis that are much less prone to such problems

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation : Data From ROCKET AF

M. Kaste on työryhmän ROCKET AF Steering Comm jäsen.Background-Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all-cause mortality may guide interventions. Methods and Results-In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all-cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention-to-treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS(2) score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow-up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.70, P= 75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51-1.90, P Conclusions-In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, approximate to 7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereasPeer reviewe

Virtual interactive musculoskeletal system (VIMS) in orthopaedic research, education and clinical patient care

The ability to combine physiology and engineering analyses with computer sciences has opened the door to the possibility of creating the "Virtual Human" reality. This paper presents a broad foundation for a full-featured biomechanical simulator for the human musculoskeletal system physiology. This simulation technology unites the expertise in biomechanical analysis and graphic modeling to investigate joint and connective tissue mechanics at the structural level and to visualize the results in both static and animated forms together with the model. Adaptable anatomical models including prosthetic implants and fracture fixation devices and a robust computational infrastructure for static, kinematic, kinetic, and stress analyses under varying boundary and loading conditions are incorporated on a common platform, the VIMS (Virtual Interactive Musculoskeletal System). Within this software system, a manageable database containing long bone dimensions, connective tissue material properties and a library of skeletal joint system functional activities and loading conditions are also available and they can easily be modified, updated and expanded. Application software is also available to allow end-users to perform biomechanical analyses interactively. Examples using these models and the computational algorithms in a virtual laboratory environment are used to demonstrate the utility of these unique database and simulation technology. This integrated system, model library and database will impact on orthopaedic education, basic research, device development and application, and clinical patient care related to musculoskeletal joint system reconstruction, trauma management, and rehabilitation

A genome-wide association study of the longitudinal course of executive functions

Executive functions are metacognitive capabilities that control and coordinate mental processes. In the transdiagnostic PsyCourse Study, comprising patients of the affective-to-psychotic spectrum and controls, we investigated the genetic basis of the time course of two core executive subfunctions: set-shifting (Trail Making Test, part B (TMT-B)) and updating (Verbal Digit Span backwards) in 1338 genotyped individuals. Time course was assessed with four measurement points, each 6 months apart. Compared to the initial assessment, executive performance improved across diagnostic groups. We performed a genome-wide association study to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with performance change over time by testing for SNP-by-time interactions using linear mixed models. We identified nine genome-wide significant SNPs for TMT-B in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other on chromosome 5. These were associated with decreased performance on the continuous TMT-B score across time. Variant rs150547358 had the lowest P value = 7.2 × 10(−10) with effect estimate beta = 1.16 (95% c.i.: 1.11, 1.22). Implementing data of the FOR2107 consortium (1795 individuals), we replicated these findings for the SNP rs150547358 (P value = 0.015), analyzing the difference of the two available measurement points two years apart. In the replication study, rs150547358 exhibited a similar effect estimate beta = 0.85 (95% c.i.: 0.74, 0.97). Our study demonstrates that longitudinally measured phenotypes have the potential to unmask novel associations, adding time as a dimension to the effects of genomics