General theory of the modified Gutenberg-Richter law for large seismic moments

The Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution of earthquake sizes is one of the most famous example illustrating self-similarity. It is well-known that the Gutenberg-Richter distribution has to be modified for large seismic moments, due to energy conservation and geometrical reasons. Several models have been proposed, either in terms of a second power law with a larger b-value beyond a cross-over magnitude, or based on a ``hard'' magnitude cut-off or a ``soft'' magnitude cut-off using an exponential taper. Since the large scale tectonic deformation is dominated by the very largest earthquakes and since their impact on loss of life and properties is huge, it is of great importance to constrain as much as possible the shape of their distribution. We present a simple and powerful probabilistic theoretical approach that shows that the Gamma distribution is the best model, under the two hypothesis that the Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution holds in absence of any condition (condition of criticality) and that one or several constraints are imposed, either based on conservation laws or on the nature of the observations themselves. The selection of the Gamma distribution does not depend on the specific nature of the constraint. We illustrate the approach with two constraints, the existence of a finite moment release rate and the observation of the size of a maximum earthquake in a finite catalog. Our predicted ``soft'' maximum magnitudes compare favorably with those obtained by Kagan [1997] for the Flinn-Engdahl regionalization of subduction zones, collision zones and mid-ocean ridges.Comment: 24 pages, including 3 tables, in press in Bull. Seism. Soc. A

Acoustic fluidization for earthquakes?

Melosh [1996] has suggested that acoustic fluidization could provide an alternative to theories that are invoked as explanations for why some crustal faults appear to be weak. We show that there is a subtle but profound inconsistency in the theory that unfortunately invalidates the results. We propose possible remedies but must acknowledge that the relevance of acoustic fluidization remains an open question.Comment: 13 page

Statistical Physics of Rupture in Heterogeneous Media

The damage and fracture of materials are technologically of enormous interest due to their economic and human cost. They cover a wide range of phenomena like e.g. cracking of glass, aging of concrete, the failure of fiber networks in the formation of paper and the breaking of a metal bar subject to an external load. Failure of composite systems is of utmost importance in naval, aeronautics and space industry. By the term composite, we refer to materials with heterogeneous microscopic structures and also to assemblages of macroscopic elements forming a super-structure. Chemical and nuclear plants suffer from cracking due to corrosion either of chemical or radioactive origin, aided by thermal and/or mechanical stress. Despite the large amount of experimental data and the considerable effort that has been undertaken by material scientists, many questions about fracture have not been answered yet. There is no comprehensive understanding of rupture phenomena but only a partial classification in restricted and relatively simple situations. This lack of fundamental understanding is indeed reflected in the absence of reliable prediction methods for rupture, based on a suitable monitoring of the stressed system. Not only is there a lack of non-empirical understanding of the reliability of a system, but also the empirical laws themselves have often limited value. The difficulties stem from the complex interplay between heterogeneities and modes of damage and the possible existence of a hierarchy of characteristic scales (static and dynamic). The paper presents a review of recent efforts from the statistical physics community to address these points.Comment: Enlarged review and updated references, 21 pages with 2 figure

Mechanism for Powerlaws without Self-Organization

A recent claim has been made in the journal Nature that there must be a self-regulation in the waiting times to see hospital consultants on the ground that the relative changes in the size of waiting lists follow a power law. In agreement with simulations of Frecketon and Sutherland, we explain the general non-self-regulating mechanism underlying this result and derive the exact value -2 of the exponent found empirically and numerically. In addition, we provide links with related phenomena encountered in many other fields.Comment: Latex document of 3 pages, no figures, in press in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

``String'' formulation of the Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve

We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string must obey in order to account for the condition of absence of arbitrage opportunities. This condition takes a form similar to a fluctuation-dissipation theorem, albeit on the same quantity (the forward rate), linking the bias to the covariance of variation fluctuations. We provide the general structure of the models that obey this constraint in the framework of stochastic partial (possibly non-linear) differential equations. We derive the general solution for the pricing and hedging of interest rate derivatives within this framework, albeit for the linear case (we also provide in the appendix a simple and intuitive derivation of the standard European option problem). We also show how the ``string'' formulation simplifies into a standard N-factor model under a Galerkin approximation.Comment: 24 pages, European Physical Journal B (in press