Russian capacity to develop its offshore hydrocarbon resources in the Kara Sea: Arctic and global implications

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2016Increasing seasonal ice free Arctic waters and market demand to expand hydrocarbon extraction to previously undeveloped offshore regions has accelerated an Arctic priority in national strategies and international forums. It is proposed that geo-strategically, the sheer size of the Kara Sea hydrocarbon fields is of a predictive magnitude great enough to impact the progression or regression of the Russian economy; and thereby have a predictive value on the capacity for Russian unilateral foreign policy decisions. Rosneft has released figures of a potential 30 to 40 billion barrels of recoverable undiscovered oil reserves in the South Kara Sea basin and significantly more in the more remote northern waters, representing the largest unexploited hydrocarbon potential remaining for the Russian Federation. There are also undercurrents of skepticism that the Russians may not achieve offshore production at the pace and or scale they envision. Though the direct economic contributions to the global economy of exploitation of Kara Sea hydrocarbons is likely not a game changer, the technological sophistication it will require and the level of cooperation and integration needed between the most advanced Western corporate techniques and Russian partners, could well be for Russian central state stability. In this context, hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea region lends itself to interdisciplinary study as a means to assess Russia's relative strategic stability. The research incorporated two primary tools to assess the drivers impacting successful Russian hydrocarbon development of its Kara Sea resources. The first was a survey-interview of experts and the second was the creation of scenario narratives (assisted by a workshop of Arctic experts and stakeholders). The four scenarios were designed to explore the complexity of the interplay of the drivers of hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea, with the objective, of identifying plausible future decision points for planners and policy makers.7.2.2 Kara Industrial Security Region (KISR)Chapter 1 Introduction -- 1.0 Current context of hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea -- 1.1 Significance of the study -- 1.2 Statement of the problem and purpose -- 1.3 Research questions -- 1.4 Tools, methods and research structure -- 1.5 Limitations, delimitations, assumptions and worldview -- Chapter 2 General context -- 2.0 Overview -- 2.1 Centrality of hydrocarbons to Russian strategic stability -- 2.1.1 Russian dependency on extractive export earnings -- 2.1.2 Russia's Arctic strategy and energy production -- 2.1.3 The Kara Sea: strategic maritime region for the Russian Federation -- 2.2 Context of Kara Sea hydrocarbons -- 2.2.1 Specifics of Kara Sea Rosneft-ExxonMobil JV -- 2.2.2 Major projects in the Kara Sea region and their inter-relationship -- 2.2.3 Timelines and their impact: exploration to production -- 2.2.4 The Northern Sea Route -- 2.2.5 Yamal and the Sabetta Port Project -- 2.2.6 Maritime character of the Kara Sea -- 2.2.6.1 Impact of climate change -- 2.2.7 Regional social impacts on hydrocarbon development -- 2.2.8 Character of governance -- 2.2.9 Environmental standards in Russia -- Chapter 3 Global influences on Russian hydrocarbon development -- 3.0 Overview -- 3.1 Russia and the oil and gas industry -- 3.1.1 Historical precedent: the fall of the Soviet Union -- 3.1.2 Confusion, privatization and reassertion of control -- 3.1.3 Energy as a geopolitical weapon? -- 3.2 Current and future global demand -- 3.2.1 Price of hydrocarbons and relation to demand -- 3.2.2 Difference in oil and gas markets -- 3.2.2.1 Impact of non-traditional recovery -- 3.2.3 Transportation costs -- 3.2.4 Regulatory environment for IOCs in Russia -- 3.2.5 Corporate social responsibility -- 3.2.5.1. If disaster strikes -- 3.3 Arctic strategies -- 3.3.1 Russian Arctic strategy: cooperative security or strategic zero sum game? -- 3.3.1.1 Russian strategy and international cooperation -- 3.3.1.1.1 Russian cooperation in the Arctic -- 3.3.1.2 Russian concepts of security in their Arctic strategy -- 3.3.2 US Arctic strategy -- 3.3.3 Norwegian Arctic strategy -- 3.3.3.1 Effectiveness and limits to region building -- 3.4 Sanctions and direct policy action -- Chapter 4 Methods, tools and research component -- 4.0 Overview -- 4.1 Qualitative methods -- 4.2 Complexity -- 4.3 Scenarios method -- 4.3.1 Origin of the scenario method -- 4.3.2 Quantitative and mixed method scenarios -- 4.4 Other tools used: survey-interviews and workshops -- 4.4.1 Survey-interview -- 4.4.2 Workshop -- Chapter 5 Expert survey-interview project -- 5.0 Overview -- 5.1 Survey-interview method and design -- 5.2 Survey-interview results -- 5.2.1 Self-characterization by participants -- 5.2.1.1 Highlights of self-identified expertise -- 5.2.2 Substantive questions -- 5.2.2.1 Tabulated results and (substantive questions 5-15) -- 5.3 Consolidated observations - key findings -- 5.4 Conclusions from survey-interview -- Chapter 6 Circumpolar offshore Arctic hydrocarbon scenario development -- 6.1 Scenario workshop -- 6.2 Workshop results -- 6.3 Workshop conclusion and refinement of drivers -- 6.3.1 Wildcards -- 6.3.2 Framing and defining linear endpoints -- 6.3.3 Matrix development: assessing the critical uncertainties -- 6.3.4 Framing of narrative quadrants -- Chapter 7 Scenario narratives -- 7.1 Scenarios: alternative futures for hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea -- 7.2 Future for Kara Sea offshore hydrocarbon extraction -- 7.2.1 Western Arctic Maritime Union (WAMU) -- 7.2.3 Special Export Zone Kara (SEZK) -- 7.2.4 Arctic Shelf Ecological Park (ASEP) -- 7.3 Findings of narrative exercise -- Chapter 8 Conclusions -- 8.0 Overview -- 8.1 Outcomes -- 8.1.1 The global crude oil market is a highly significant driver -- 8.1.2 Impact of punitive sanctions -- 8.1.3 Will IOCs return? Are they necessary for Russian strategic objectives? -- 8.1.4 Significance of Kara Sea success on Russia's capacity as a state -- 8.1.5 Circumpolar impacts: environmental sound development? -- 8.1.6 Arctic and strategic policy implications -- 8.2 Final assessment -- References -- Appendices

Comorbidity of self-harm and disordered eating in young people:Evidence from a UK population-based cohort

BACKGROUND: Self-harm and eating disorders are often comorbid in clinical samples but their co-occurrence in the general population is unclear. Given that only a small proportion of individuals who self-harm or have disordered eating present to clinical services, and that both self-harm and eating disorders are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, it is important to study these behaviours at a population level. METHODS: We assessed the co-occurrence of self-harm and disordered eating behaviours in 3384 females and 2326 males from a UK population-based cohort: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Participants reported on their self-harm and disordered eating behaviours (fasting, purging, binge-eating and excessive exercise) in the last year via questionnaire at 16 and 24 years. At each age we assessed how many individuals who self-harm also reported disordered eating, and how many individuals with disordered eating also reported self-harm. RESULTS: We found high comorbidity of self-harm and disordered eating. Almost two-thirds of 16-year-old females, and two-in-five 24-year old males who self-harmed also reported some form of disordered eating. Young people with disordered eating reported higher levels of self-harm at both ages compared to those without disordered eating. LIMITATIONS: We were not able to measure whether participants identified their disordered eating as a method of self-harm. CONCLUSIONS: Self-harm and disordered eating commonly co-occur in young people in the general population. It is important to screen for both sets of difficulties to provide appropriate treatment

Processing CCD Images to Detect Transits of Earth-Sized Planets: Maximizing Sensitivity While Achieving Reasonable Downlink Requirements

We have performed end-to-end laboratory and numerical simulations to demonstrate the capability of differential photometry under realistic operating conditions to detect transits of Earth-sized planets orbiting solar-like stars. Data acquisition and processing were conducted using the same methods planned for the proposed Kepler Mission. These included performing aperture photometry on large-format CCD images of an artificial star fields obtained without a shutter at a readout rate of 1 megapixel/sec, detecting and removing cosmic rays from individual exposures and making the necessary corrections for nonlinearity and shutterless operation in the absence of darks. We will discuss the image processing tasks performed `on-board' the simulated spacecraft, which yielded raw photometry and ancillary data used to monitor and correct for systematic effects, and the data processing and analysis tasks conducted to obtain lightcurves from the raw data and characterize the detectability of transits. The laboratory results are discussed along with the results of a numerical simulation carried out in parallel with the laboratory simulation. These two simulations demonstrate that a system-level differential photometric precision of 10-5 on five- hour intervals can be achieved under realistic conditions

Evaluating a multicomponent survivorship programme for men with prostate cancer in Australia: A single cohort study

Objective: To evaluate the implementation of a multicomponent survivorship programme for men with prostate cancer and their carers. Design: A single cohort study, guided by the RE-AIM framework. Setting: Multiple health services in Australia. Participants: Men with prostate cancer and their carers, and health professionals. Intervention: A 12-month telehealth programme that provided centralised and coordinated decision and information support, exercise and nutrition management, specialised clinical support and practical support to men and their carers. Data collection: Multiple sources of data including participant-reported health outcomes and experience of care, qualitative interviews, records of the programme were collected at different time points. Results: Reach: Of 394 eligible men at various stages of survivorship, 142 consented (36% consent rate) and 136 (96%) completed the programme. Adoption: All men participated in general care coordination and more than half participated in exercise and/or nutrition management interventions. Participation in the specialised support component (ie, psychosocial and sexual health support, continence management) was low despite the high level of need reported by men. Effectiveness: Overall, the men reported improvements in their experience of care. Implementation: Factors such as addressing service gaps, provision of specialised services, care coordination, adoption of needs-based and telehealth-based approaches were identified as enablers to the successful implementation of the programme. Issues such as insufficient integration with existing services, lack of resources and high caseload of the intervention team, men\u27s reluctance to discuss needs and lack of confidence with technology were barriers in implementing the programme. Conclusion: Survivorship interventions are relevant to men regardless of the stage of their disease and treatments undertaken. It is possible to provide access to a comprehensive model of survivorship care to promote the health and quality of life for men with prostate cancer. Trial registration number: This study was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12617000174381)

An integrated multicomponent care model for men affected by prostate cancer: A feasibility study of TrueNTH Australia

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of implementing an integrated multicomponent survivorship care model for men affected by prostate cancer. Methods: Using a single arm prospective cohort study design, men with prostate cancer were recruited from two regional public hospitals in Australia for a 6-months program that provided information and decision support, exercise and nutrition management, specialised clinical support, and practical support through localised and central care coordination. Carers of the men were also invited to the program. Data were collected from multiple sources to evaluate: (1) recruitment capability and participant characteristics; (2) appropriateness and feasibility of delivering the specific intervention components using an electronic care management tool; and (3) suitability of data collection procedures and proposed outcome measures. Results: Of the 105 eligible men, 51 (consent rate 49%) participated in the program. Of the 31 carers nominated by the men, 13 consented (consent rate 42%). All carers and 50 (98%) men completed the program. Most (92%) men were newly diagnosed with localised prostate cancer. All men attended initial screening and assessment for supportive care needs; a total of 838 episodes of contact/consultation were made by the intervention team either in person (9%) or remotely (91%). The intervention was implemented as proposed with no adverse events. The proposed outcome measures and evaluation procedures were found to be appropriate. Conclusions: Our results support the feasibility of implementing this integrated multicomponent care model for men affected by prostate cancer

The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study: Effects of Fuel Reduction Methods on Forest Vegetation Structure and Fuels

Changes in vegetation and fuels were evaluated from measurements taken before and after fuel reduction treatments (prescribed. re, mechanical treatments, and the combination of the two) at 12 Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) sites located in forests with a surface. re regime across the conterminous United States. To test the relative effectiveness of fuel reduction treatments and their effect on ecological parameters we used an information-theoretic approach on a suite of 12 variables representing the overstory (basal area and live tree, sapling, and snag density), the understory (seedling density, shrub cover, and native and alien herbaceous species richness), and the most relevant fuel parameters for wild. re damage (height to live crown, total fuel bed mass, forest floor mass, and woody fuel mass). In the short term (one year after treatment), mechanical treatments were more effective at reducing overstory tree density and basal area and at increasing quadratic mean tree diameter. Prescribed. re treatments were more effective at creating snags, killing seedlings, elevating height to live crown, and reducing surface woody fuels. Overall, the response to fuel reduction treatments of the ecological variables presented in this paper was generally maximized by the combined mechanical plus burning treatment. If the management goal is to quickly produce stands with fewer and larger diameter trees, less surface fuel mass, and greater herbaceous species richness, the combined treatment gave the most desirable results. However, because mechanical plus burning treatments also favored alien species invasion at some sites, monitoring and control need to be part of the prescription when using this treatment

Methods Used in Economic Evaluations of Chronic Kidney Disease Testing — A Systematic Review

Background: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is high in general populations around the world. Targeted testing and screening for CKD are often conducted to help identify individuals that may benefit from treatment to ameliorate or prevent their disease progression. Aims: This systematic review examines the methods used in economic evaluations of testing and screening in CKD, with a particular focus on whether test accuracy has been considered, and how analysis has incorporated issues that may be important to the patient, such as the impact of testing on quality of life and the costs they incur. Methods: Articles that described model-based economic evaluations of patient testing interventions focused on CKD were identified through the searching of electronic databases and the hand searching of the bibliographies of the included studies. Results: The initial electronic searches identified 2,671 papers of which 21 were included in the final review. Eighteen studies focused on proteinuria, three evaluated glomerular filtration rate testing and one included both tests. The full impact of inaccurate test results was frequently not considered in economic evaluations in this setting as a societal perspective was rarely adopted. The impact of false positive tests on patients in terms of the costs incurred in re-attending for repeat testing, and the anxiety associated with a positive test was almost always overlooked. In one study where the impact of a false positive test on patient quality of life was examined in sensitivity analysis, it had a significant impact on the conclusions drawn from the model. Conclusion: Future economic evaluations of kidney function testing should examine testing and monitoring pathways from the perspective of patients, to ensure that issues that are important to patients, such as the possibility of inaccurate test results, are properly considered in the analysis

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting K dwarf TOI-1246

Multi-planet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V=11.6, K=9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31 d, 5.90 d, 18.66 d, and 37.92 d. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97±0.06 R⊕,2.47±0.08 R⊕,3.46±0.09 R⊕, 3.72±0.16 R⊕), and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1±1.1M⊕, 8.8±1.2M⊕, 5.3±1.7M⊕, 14.8±2.3M⊕). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (Pe/Pd=2.03) and exhibit transit timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only six systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70±0.24 to 3.21±0.44g/cm3, implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 ± 3.6 M⊕. This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e with a candidate period of 93.8 d, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature

The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting Sub-Neptunes Orbiting K Dwarf TOI-1246

Multiplanet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V = 11.6, K = 9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31, 5.90, 18.66, and 37.92 days. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97 +/- 0.06 R (circle plus), 2.47 +/- 0.08 R (circle plus), 3.46 +/- 0.09 R (circle plus), and 3.72 +/- 0.16 R (circle plus)) and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1 +/- 1.1 M (circle plus), 8.8 +/- 1.2 M (circle plus), 5.3 +/- 1.7 M (circle plus), and 14.8 +/- 2.3 M (circle plus)). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (P (e)/P ( d ) = 2.03) and exhibit transit-timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only five systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70 +/- 0.24 to 3.21 +/- 0.44 g cm(-3), implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 +/- 3.6 M (circle plus). This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e, with a candidate period of 93.8 days, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature