Health conspiracy theories: a scoping review of drivers, impacts, and countermeasures

Background Health-related conspiracy theories undermine trust in healthcare, exacerbate health inequities, and contribute to harmful health behaviors such as vaccine hesitancy and reliance on unproven treatments. These theories disproportionately impact marginalized populations, further widening health disparities. Their rapid spread, amplified by social media algorithms and digital misinformation networks, exacerbates public health challenges, highlighting the urgency of understanding their prevalence, key drivers, and mitigation strategies. Methods This scoping review synthesizes research on health-related conspiracy theories, focusing on their prevalence, impacts on health behaviors and outcomes, contributing factors, and counter-measures. Using Arksey and O’Malley’s framework and the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, a systematic search of six databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus) was conducted. Studies were screened using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, with thematic synthesis categorizing findings across diverse health contexts. Results The review revealed pervasive conspiracy beliefs surrounding HIV/AIDS, vaccines, pharmaceutical companies, and COVID-19, linked to reduced vaccine uptake, increased mistrust in health authorities, and negative mental health outcomes such as anxiety and depression. Key drivers included sociopolitical distrust, cognitive biases, low scientific literacy, and the unchecked proliferation of misinformation on digital platforms. Promising countermeasures included inoculation messaging, media literacy interventions, and two-sided refutational techniques. However, their long-term effectiveness remains uncertain, as few studies assess their sustained impact across diverse sociopolitical contexts. Conclusion Health-related conspiracy theories present a growing public health challenge that undermines global health equity. While several interventions show potential, further research is needed to evaluate their effectiveness across diverse populations and contexts. Targeted efforts to rebuild trust in healthcare systems and strengthen critical health literacy are essential to mitigate the harmful effects of these conspiracy beliefs.publishedVersio

Examining criticism of WHO’s COVID-19 response: a scoping review

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant weaknesses in global health governance, with the World Health Organization (WHO) facing widespread criticism. This scoping review aims to systematically examine and categorize critiques of WHO’s pandemic response across multiple stakeholders. Using Arksey and O’Malley’s framework and the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, a systematic search of six databases (CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, PsycINFO, and PubMed) was conducted. Peer-reviewed research studies were screened using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, and thematic synthesis categorized the findings across six key themes: delays in response, communication failures, vaccine equity, global coordination, governance limitations, and trust and transparency. Included studies reported that the WHO’s effectiveness was limited by delayed emergency declarations, inconsistent public health messaging, inequitable vaccine distribution, and constrained authority over global health measures. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, donor-driven funding structures, and the exclusion of key stakeholders (e.g., Taiwan) further challenged global coordination. These issues affected public trust and highlighted structural inefficiencies in international health governance. The findings point to calls for reforms, including enhanced autonomy in crisis response, more transparent communication strategies, equitable resource distribution, and strengthened mechanisms for global collaboration. This review contributes to the understanding of how health governance, public trust, and equity are interrelated, providing a foundation to inform efforts to enhance WHO’s leadership in future health crises.publishedVersio

The global burden of childhood and adolescent cancer in 2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Accurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0–19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings Globally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6–12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3–97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7–2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1–82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3–50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26·5% (26·5–26·5) of global childhood cancer DALYs. Interpretation The GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern.The work in this paper was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC), and St Baldrick's FoundationpublishedVersio

Predictive Clinical Factors of Pain-Related Quality of Recovery Following Elective Gastrointestinal and Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery: An Observational Study in Norway

Purpose: This observational cohort study aimed to identify predictive factors associated with pain-related quality of recovery among patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal and hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery. Patients and Methods: This study involved a secondary analysis of the data collected from five hospitals across all healthcare regions in Norway to validate the Norwegian version of the Quality of Recovery-15 (QoR-15NO). The sample consisted of 268 adult patients who underwent elective gastrointestinal and hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery between September 2021 and May 2022. Data were collected using QoR-15NO upon admission for surgery and on the first postoperative day, and surgery severity was classified using the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool. A linear mixed model and multivariate linear regression were used to investigate associations between postoperative scores and possible predictive clinically relevant factors. Results: The results of this study showed that postoperative pain was significantly associated with age, gender, severity of surgery, and changes from pre- to postoperative status. Younger patients, compared to older patients (b=0.23, 95% CI: [0.03, 0.41]), female patients (b=−0.61, 95% CI: [−1.19, −0.04]), patients undergoing minor and intermediate surgeries compared to major surgeries (b=0.96, 95% CI: [0.00, 1.92]) all reported higher levels of postoperative pain. There was a significant decline in QoR post-surgery due to increased pain severity (b=−1.91, 95% CI: [−2.33, −1.50]; p <0.001). No clinically significant associations were found between ASA physical status, surgery duration, and pain-related QoR. Conclusion: This study identified age, gender, and surgery severity as key predictors of postoperative pain. Younger and female patients and those undergoing minor surgeries are at higher risk for severe postoperative pain. Proactive approaches for minor surgeries and tailored pain management for younger patients and females might enhance recovery and postoperative pain outcomes. Thus, future research should focus on the long-term effects of individualized pain management and additional strategies for high-risk patient groups.publishedVersio

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.publishedVersio

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationpublishedVersio

Prevalence of Fatigue and Associated Factors Among Cancer Patients Attending Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background: Fatigue is a subjective and distressing symptom in cancer patients and has profound effects on daily life. The rates of fatigue during treatment are reported to be 25– 90%. Its causes are secondary to their treatment course, cancer itself and associated factors. Purpose: To assess the prevalence of fatigue and associated factors among cancer patients at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2019. Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study design was conducted on cancer patients undergoing treatment in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital. A sample of 278 was selected using systematic random sampling technique and Brief Fatigue Inventory questionnaire was used for data collection. The data were entered into EPI data version 3.1 and transferred to SPSS version 24 for analysis. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression were conducted to summarize the data. The significant statistical test was determined at 95% confidence interval and at p< 0.05. Results: The mean age of the participants was 44.9 ± 14 years. The prevalence of fatigue identified by this study was 208 (74.8%). Age, stage of cancer, presence of infection, type of cancer, and type of treatment had shown a significant association with fatigue [AOR = 3.15, 95% CI: (1.35– 7.34)], [AOR = 0.02, 95% CI: (0.003– 0.172)], [AOR = 4.15, 95% CI: (1.06– 16.07)], [AOR = 5.19, 95% CI: (1.59– 16.90)], [AOR = 0.18, 95% CI: (0.07– 0.462)] respectively. Conclusion: The prevalence of fatigue in cancer patients in this study was high. Risk factors were age of the patients, stage of cancer, presence of infection, cervical cancer and radiation therapy.publishedVersio

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates— with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex- location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause- of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.publishedVersio

Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly.publishedVersio

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6519000 children (95% UI 5 254000–7733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, withincountry geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52230 diarrhoeal deaths (36910–68860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers’ understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage.publishedVersio