6 research outputs found

    Emerging Economies Crises: Lessons from the 1990’

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    The paper examines the financial crises of the 1990s. They represent a new kind of crises, as they do not seem to conform to the so-called first generation and second generation literature on currency crises. The outburst of the Asian crises brought a new challenge for economic policy. The attention has been placed on the self-fulfilling character of the speculative attacks and microeconomic weaknesses. The first part of the paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on financial crises, the second part addresses some lessons for emerging economies. The authors consider the policies to manage financial crises and reduce the risks associated with them.financial crises, emerging markets, contagion

    Behavioural patterns as determinants of market movements: evidence from an emerging market

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    This article aims to empirically support the hypothesis that behavioural patterns are key determinants of market movements. We developed a model for predicting market psychology which is based on the application of a self-organizing network algorithm. The estimated model is applied to a mechanical trading system, which independently adopts investment decisions based on the current daily data. The model was tested on the data for daily trading on the Slovenian stock market as an example of an emerging capital market. The performance of the model supports the suggested hypothesis.

    Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Capital Market of a Small Transition Economy - Does It Hold?

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    A wavelet analysis of long-range dependence based on the Hurst exponent is presented in this paper. Numerical comparisons are made against traditional estimators of the exponent based on R/S analysis. The estimator is used to perform an analysis of the long-range dependence in the capital market of a small transition economy (Slovenia). Results of the study suggest that the efficient market hypothesis may not hold for the observed capital market. Furthermore, results also suggest that the estimation of the exponent is sensitive to the frequencies of the data employed and to the sample period. Additionally, the format of the time series has an important impact on the results

    The power of market mood -- Evidence from an emerging market

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    This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.Behavioral patterns Stock market Self-organizing map Investment decision
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