Univariate analysis of the step and slope per annum changes in pregnancy outcomes from 1 January 2006 referent to the underlying trend.

<p>Data are step changes at 1 January 2006, and slope changes after 1 January 2006.</p>a<p>Includes current, never, and former smokers and unknown smoking status.</p

Time trend in the number of infants delivered small for gestational age per 1,000 live births.

<p>Time trend smoothed using the Stata loess smoother with bandwidth = 0.1.</p

Time trend in the number of infants delivered preterm per 1,000 live births.

<p>Time trend smoothed using the Stata loess smoother with bandwidth = 0.1.</p

Calibration plot for updated IVFpredict and Templeton models.

<p>Based on 130,960 IVF cycles. Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistics: p<0.001. Solid line, updated IVFpredict model; dashed line, updated Templeton model; dotted, diagonal line, perfect prediction (reference).</p

Characteristics of study participants by test result.

<p>Characteristics of study participants by test result.</p

Inclusion/exclusion criteria and formation of the validation sample.

<p>Inclusion/exclusion criteria and formation of the validation sample.</p

Net reclassification index for IVFpredict compared with the Templeton model.

<p>* Not including 3 cycles with equal prognosis in the updated IVFpredict and Templeton models.</p><p>Net reclassification index for IVFpredict compared with the Templeton model.</p

Characteristics of patients and treatment in the validation sample, consisting of 130,960 IVF cycles.

<p>Characteristics of patients and treatment in the validation sample, consisting of 130,960 IVF cycles.</p

Calibration plot for the IVFpredict and Templeton models.

<p>Based on 130,960 IVF cycles. Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistics: p<0.001. Solid line, IVFpredict model; dashed line, Templeton model; dotted, diagonal line, perfect prediction (reference).</p

Brier scores and decomposition for IVFpredict and Templeton models, from 130,960 IVF cycles.

<p>Scaled modified Brier score = 1 + Scaled reliability—Scaled uncertainty.</p><p>Brier scores and decomposition for IVFpredict and Templeton models, from 130,960 IVF cycles.</p