Vision 2023: Turkey’s National Technology Foresight Program – a contextualist description and analysis

This paper describes and analyses Vision 2023 Turkish National Technology Foresight Program. The paper is not about a mere description of the activities undertaken. It analyses the Program from a contextualist perspective, where the Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing how the factors in these contexts led to the particular decisions taken and approaches adopted when the exercise was organized, designed and practiced. With the description and analysis of the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program, the paper suggests that each Foresight exercise should be considered in its own context. The exercise should be organized, designed and practiced by considering the effects of the external contexts (national, regional and/or corporate) and organizational factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.Foresight, contextualism, Vision 2023, Turkey, Science and Technology Policy

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today's complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-maker

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning : lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch)Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers

Ready for the future? Universities' capabilities to strategically manage their intellectual capital

Purpose This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions. The objective is to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector. It also aims to focus on how it may be possible for universities to address the challenges of major change management programmes by implementing foresight and intellectual capital management models. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews recent literature both on conceptual issues and experiences in relation to foresight and intellectual capital. The paper presents an ongoing project focused on the development of a vision for the future of the higher education system in Romania and a frame to differentiate Romanian universities. Findings A proposal of an integrated use of foresight and intellectual capital management for universities is suggested. The case study presented illustrates how foresight provides an excellent approach to address the question of how to develop a shared vision of the future and jointly define a strategy to best adapt an organization to the new context, and intellectual capital management models play a role in strategic management, resource allocation and monitoring of objectives and organization performance. Practical implications The issues addressed in the paper could provide the starting point for better integration of strategic management in higher education institutions. Originality/value The paper explores two concepts closely related but that have not been analysed together: the relationship between Intellectual capital approaches and foresight

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes – and grand challenges in particular –, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes – and grand challenges in particular –, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges

Systems thinking for foresight

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