Forecasting mortality patterns of thalassaemia major patients in Iraq by using VAR model and reasons for this mortality

The vector autoregression model (VAR) is a natural extension of the univariate autoregressive model dynamic multivariable time series. It is one of the most successful, flexible, and easy to use models for the analysis of multivariable time series. The VAR model has proved to be particularly useful describing the dynamic behaviour of economic and financial time series and forecasting. Often it provides superior forecasts to those of time-series models and univariate and detailed forecasts, based on the theory of simultaneous equation models. Expectations of VAR models are very flexible because they can be conditioned on possible paths for the future in the form of specific variables. In addition to describing the data and forecasting, the VAR model is used to deduce structural and policy analysis. This study used the VAR model for forecasting the number of deaths in patients with thalassemia in Maysan province in southern Iraq, and also addressed the causes of these deaths. There was a strong relationship between mortality in thalassemia patients and an increase in the proportion of iron and the highest number of deaths was recorded for patients who had a very high proportion of iron. It was „the most important cause of mortality (Cardiac disease, infections, the liver, the spleen)

Wavelet Theory: Applications of the Wavelet

In this Chapter, continuous Haar wavelet functions base and spline base have been discussed. Haar wavelet approximations are used for solving of differential equations (DEs). The numerical solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and fractional differential equations (FrDEs) using Haar wavelet base and spline base have been discussed. Also, Haar wavelet base and collocation techniques are used to approximate the solution of Lane-Emden equation of fractional-order showing that the applicability and efficacy of Haar wavelet method. The numerical results have clearly shown the advantage and the efficiency of the techniques in terms of accuracy and computational time. Wavelet transform studied as a mathematical approach and the applications of wavelet transform in signal processing field have been discussed. The frequency content extracted by wavelet transform (WT) has been effectively used in revealing important features of 1D and 2D signals. This property proved very useful in speech and image recognition. Wavelet transform has been used for signal and image compression

Pancreatic surgery outcomes: multicentre prospective snapshot study in 67 countries

Background: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide.Methods: This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters.Results: A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 percent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien-Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 percent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 percent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle-compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries.Conclusion: Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761)