Kingmakers or Cheerleaders? Party Power and the Causal Effects of Endorsements

When parties make endorsements in primary elections, does the favored candidate receive a real boost in his or her vote share, or do parties simply pick the favorites who are already destined to win? To answer this question, we draw on two research designs aimed at isolating the causal effect of Democratic Party endorsements in California’s 2012 primary election. First, we conduct a survey experiment in which we randomly assign a party endorsement, holding all other aspects of a candidate’s background and policy positions constant. Second, we use a unique dataset to implement a regression discontinuity analysis of electoral trends by comparing the vote shares captured by candidates who barely won or barely lost the internal party endorsement contest. We find a constellation of evidence suggesting that endorsements do indeed matter, although this effect appears to be contingent upon the type of candidate and voter: endorsements matter most for candidates in their party’s mainstream, and for voters who identify with that party and for independents. The magnitude of their impact is dramatically smaller than might be estimated from research designs less attuned to recent advances in causal inference

Isochrones of M67 with an Expanded Set of Parameters

We create isochrones of M67 using the Yale Rotating Stellar Evolution Code. In addition to metallicity, parameters that are traditionally held fixed, such as the mixing length parameter and initial helium abundance, also vary. The amount of convective overshoot is also changed in different sets of isochrones. Models are constructed both with and without diffusion. From the resulting isochrones that fit the cluster, the age range is between 3.6 and 4.8 Gyr and the distance is between 755 and 868 pc. We also confirm Michaud et al. (2004) claim that M67 can be fit without overshoot if diffusion is included.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the joint TASC2/KASC9/SPACEINN/HELAS8 conference "Seismology of the Sun and the Distant Stars 2016

Tools for reformulating logical forms into zero-one mixed integer programs (MIPS)

A systematic procedure for transforming a set of logical statements or logical conditions imposed on a model into an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulation or a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) formulation is presented. A reformulation procedure which uses the extended reverse polish representation of a compound logical form is then described. A prototype user interface by which logical forms can be reformulated and the corresponding MIP constructed and analysed within an existing Mathematical Programming modelling system is illustrated. Finally, the steps to formulate a discrete optimisation model in this way are demonstrated by means of an example

The Sizing and Optimization Language (SOL): A computer language to improve the user/optimizer interface

The nonlinear mathematical programming method (formal optimization) has had many applications in engineering design. A figure illustrates the use of optimization techniques in the design process. The design process begins with the design problem, such as the classic example of the two-bar truss designed for minimum weight as seen in the leftmost part of the figure. If formal optimization is to be applied, the design problem must be recast in the form of an optimization problem consisting of an objective function, design variables, and constraint function relations. The middle part of the figure shows the two-bar truss design posed as an optimization problem. The total truss weight is the objective function, the tube diameter and truss height are design variables, with stress and Euler buckling considered as constraint function relations. Lastly, the designer develops or obtains analysis software containing a mathematical model of the object being optimized, and then interfaces the analysis routine with existing optimization software such as CONMIN, ADS, or NPSOL. This final state of software development can be both tedious and error-prone. The Sizing and Optimization Language (SOL), a special-purpose computer language whose goal is to make the software implementation phase of optimum design easier and less error-prone, is presented

Limits on chemical complexity in diffuse clouds: search for CH3OH and HC5N absorption

Context: An unexpectedly complex polyatomic chemistry exists in diffuse clouds, allowing detection of species such as C2H, C3H2, H2CO and NH3 which have relative abundances that are strikingly similar to those inferred toward the dark cloud TMC-1 Aims: We probe the limits of complexity of diffuse cloud polyatomic chemistry. Methods: We used the IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer to search for galactic absorption from low-lying J=2-1 rotational transitions of A- and E-CH3OH near 96.740 GHz and used the VLA to search for the J=8-7 transition of HC5N at 21.3 GHz. Results: Neither CH3OH nor HC5N were detected at column densities well below those of all polyatomics known in diffuse clouds and somewhat below the levels expected from comparison with TMC-1. The HCN/HC5N ratio is at least 3-10 times higher in diffuse gas than toward TMC-1. Conclusions: It is possible to go to the well once (or more) too ofte

User's manual for MacPASCO

A user's manual is presented for MacPASCO, which is an interactive, graphic, preprocessor for panel design. MacPASCO creates input for PASCO, an existing computer code for structural analysis and sizing of longitudinally stiffened composite panels. MacPASCO provides a graphical user interface which simplifies the specification of panel geometry and reduces user input errors. The user draws the initial structural geometry and reduces user input errors. The user draws the initial structural geometry on the computer screen, then uses a combination of graphic and text inputs to: refine the structural geometry; specify information required for analysis such as panel load and boundary conditions; and define design variables and constraints for minimum mass optimization. Only the use of MacPASCO is described, since the use of PASCO has been documented elsewhere

Sets and indices in linear programming modelling and their integration with relational data models

LP models are usually constructed using index sets and data tables which are closely related to the attributes and relations of relational database (RDB) systems. We extend the syntax of MPL, an existing LP modelling language, in order to connect it to a given RDB system. This approach reuses existing modelling and database software, provides a rich modelling environment and achieves model and data independence. This integrated software enables Mathematical Programming to be widely used as a decision support tool by unlocking the data residing in corporate databases

Facilitating a ‘non-judgmental’ skills-based co-design environment

This paper reflects on a pilot study for the design of a series of e-textiles workshops developed for the Nottinghamshire Mind Network community of mental health and wellbeing service users, managers and volunteers. The final workshops will form part of ‘An Internet of Soft Things’ (IoSofT) project, which seeks to develop a Person-Centred Approach (PCA) to design. The workshops should be experienced by participants as a non-judgemental environment, as one of the conditions of the Person-Centred Approach – unconditional positive regard (UPR) (Rogers, 1957). While the research team agree in theory that participants should feel safe and supported, putting non-judgement into practice in a multi - disciplinary environment, in which skills form the basis of workshop activity, has proved to be challenging. The paper introduces the key criteria of the PCA in psychotherapy, and describes the particular challenges that being non-judgemental presented to the textile designers and therapeutic practitioners who designed and facilitated the workshops. It presents an analysis of the design artefacts produced in the course of six workshop sessions (such as the ‘group agreement’), and participant feedback, and discusses the resulting framework that will be applied in the next iteration of workshops to enable participants’ comfort, creativity and autonomy