Weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasting for the US Southwest: A survey

As part of a regional integrated assessment of climate vulnerability, a survey was conducted from June 1998 to May 2000 of weather, climate, and hydrologic forecasts with coverage of the US Southwest and an emphasis on the Colorado River Basin. The survey addresses the types of forecasts that were issued, the organizations that provided them, and techniques used in their generation. It reflects discussions with key personnel from organizations involved in producing or issuing forecasts, providing data for making forecasts, or serving as a link for communicating forecasts. During the survey period, users faced a complex and constantly changing mix of forecast products available from a variety of sources. The abundance of forecasts was not matched in the provision of corresponding interpretive materials, documentation about how the forecasts were generated, or reviews of past performance. Potential existed for confusing experimental and research products with others that had undergone a thorough review process, including official products issued by the National Weather Service. Contrasts between the state of meteorologic and hydrologic forecasting were notable, especially in the former's greater operational flexibility and more rapid incorporation of new observations and research products. Greater attention should be given to forecast content and communication, including visualization, expression of probabilistic forecasts and presentation of ancillary information. Regional climate models and use of climate forecasts in water supply forecasting offer rapid improvements in predictive capabilities for the Southwest. Forecasts and production details should be archived, and publicly available forecasts should be accompanied by performance evaluations that are relevant to users

Factors affecting seasonal forecast use in Arizona water management: A case study of the 1997-98 El Niño

The 1997-98 El Niño was exceptional, not only because of its magnitude, but also because of the visibility and use of its forecasts. The 3 to 9 mo advance warning of a wet winter with potential flooding in the US Southwest, easily accessible by water management agencies, was unprecedented. Insights about use of this information in operational water management decision processes were developed through a series of semi-structured in-depth interviews with key personnel from a broad array of agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply, with jurisdictions ranging from urban to rural and local to regional. Interviews investigated where information was acquired, how it was interpreted and how it was incorporated into specific decisions and actions. In addition, technical and institutional barriers to forecast use are explored. Study findings emphasize (1) the need for special handling of tailored forecast products on a regional scale, (2) the need for systematic regional forecast evaluation and (3) the potential for climate information to directly affect water management decisions through integrating climate forecasts into water supply outlooks where appropriate

Symmetries and Triplet Dispersion in a Modified Shastry-Sutherland Model for SrCu_2(BO_3)_2

We investigate the one-triplet dispersion in a modified Shastry-Sutherland Model for SrCu_2(BO_3)_2 by means of a series expansion about the limit of strong dimerization. Our perturbative method is based on a continuous unitary transformation that maps the original Hamiltonian to an effective, energy quanta conserving block diagonal Hamiltonian H_{eff}. The dispersion splits into two branches which are nearly degenerated. We analyse the symmetries of the model and show that space group operations are necessary to explain the degeneracy of the dispersion at k=0 and at the border of the magnetic Brillouin zone. Moreover, we investigate the behaviour of the dispersion for small |k| and compare our results to INS data.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures accepted by J. Phys.: Condens. Matte

On the Origin of the Non-Fermi Liquid Behavior of SrRuO_{3}

Motivated by the unusual features observed in the transport properties of the ferromagnetic "bad metal" $SrRuO_{3}$, we construct a model incorporating essential features of the realistic structure of this nearly cubic material. In particular, we show how the $t_{2g}$orbital {\it orientation} in the perfectly cubic structure determines the peculiar structure of the hybridization matrix, and demonstrate how the local non-Fermi liquid features arise when interactions are switched on. we discuss the effect of the slight deviation from the cubic structure (at low-$T$) qualitatively. The model provides a consistent explanation of the features observed recently in the optical response of $SrRuO_{3}$.Comment: 4 pages. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Coherent Dark States of Rubidium 87 in a Buffer Gas using Pulsed Laser Light

The coherent dark resonance between the hyperfine levels F=1, m=0 and F=2, m=0 of the rubidium ground state has been observed experimentally with the light of a pulsed mode-locked diode laser operating at the D1 transition frequency. The resonance occurs whenever the pulse repetition frequency matches an integer fraction of the rubidium 87 ground state hyperfine splitting of 6.8 GHz. Spectra have been taken by varying the pulse repetition frequency. Using cells with argon as a buffer gas a linewidth as narrow as 149 Hz was obtained. The rubidium ground state decoherence cross section 1.1*10^(-18) cm^2 for collisions with xenon atoms has been measured for the first time with this method using a pure isotope rubidium vapor cell and xenon as a buffer gas.Comment: 3 pages, 5 figures, 1 misprint correcte