Trajectories of objectively measured physical activity in free-living older men.

BACKGROUND: The steep decline in physical activity (PA) among the oldest old is not well understood; there is little information about the patterns of change in PA and sedentary behaviour (SB) in older people. Longitudinal data on objectively measured PA data can give insights about how PA and SB change with age. METHODS: Men age 70-90 yr, from a United Kingdom population-based cohort wore a GT3X accelerometer over the hip annually on up to three occasions (56%, 50%, and 51% response rates) spanning 2 yr. Multilevel models were used to estimate change in activity. Men were grouped according to achieving ≥150 min·wk of MVPA in bouts of ≥10 min (current guidelines) at two or three time points. RESULTS: A total of 1419 ambulatory men had ≥600 min wear time on ≥3 d at ≥2 time points. At baseline, men took 4806 steps per day and spent 72.5% of their day in SB, 23.1% in light PA, and 4.1% in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). Mean change per year was -341 steps, +1.1% SB, -0.7% light PA, and -0.4% MVPA each day (all P 30 min increased from 5.1 by 0.1 per year (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, the steep decline in total PA occurred because of reductions in MVPA, while light PA is relatively spared and sedentary time and long sedentary bouts increase

Serum uric acid as a potential marker for heart failure risk in men on antihypertensive treatment: The British Regional Heart Study.

The role of serum uric acid (SUA) as a prognostic marker for incident heart failure (HF) in hypertensive subjects is uncertain. We have prospectively examined the relationship between SUA and incident HF in 3440 men aged 60-79years separately in those on and not on antihypertensive treatment who were followed up for a mean period of 15years. Men on SUA lowering drugs and those with history of HF or myocardial infarction were excluded. There were 260 incident HF cases. The men were divided into three groups of SUA concentrations/levels (410μmol/L). Raised SUA was associated with significantly increased risk of HF in men on antihypertensive treatment (N=949) but not in those without (N=2491) (p=0.003 for interaction). In men on antihypertensive treatment those with hyperuricemia (>410μmol/L) had the most adverse biological risk profile for HF including the highest rates of atrial fibrillation and renal dysfunction and the highest mean level of BMI, c-reactive protein and cardiac function (cardiac troponin T). Treated hypertensive men with SUA levels>410μmol/L showed an increase in risk of HF of more than twofold compared to those on treatment with levels <350μmol/L even after adjustment for lifestyle characteristics and biological risk factors [adjusted hazard ratio 2.26 (1.23,4.15)]. SUA improved prediction of HF beyond routine conventional risk factors (p=0.02 for improvement in c-statistics). SUA as a marker of increased xanthine oxidase activity may be a useful prognostic marker for HF risk in older men on antihypertensive treatment

High Diet Quality Is Associated with a Lower Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in Older Men

Although diet quality is implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, few studies have investigated the relation between diet quality and the risks of CVD and mortality in older adults. This study examined the prospective associations between dietary scores and risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men. A total of 3328 men (aged 60–79 y) from the British Regional Heart Study, free from CVD at baseline, were followed up for 11.3 y for CVD and mortality. Baseline food-frequency questionnaire data were used to generate 2 dietary scores: the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), based on WHO dietary guidelines, and the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), based on a Mediterranean-style dietary intake, with higher scores indicating greater compliance with dietary recommendations. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses assessed associations between quartiles of HDI and EDI and risk of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, CVD events, and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. During follow-up, 933 deaths, 327 CVD deaths, 582 CVD events, and 307 CHD events occurred. Men in the highest compared with the lowest EDI quartile had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR:0.75; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), CVD mortality (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), and CHD events(HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45,0.97; P-trend = 0.05) but not CVD events (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.05;P-trend = 0.16) after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and cardiovascular risk factors. The HDI was not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. The EDI appears to be more useful than the HDI for assessing diet quality in relation to CVD and morality risk in older men. Encouraging older adults to adhere to the guidelines inherent in the EDI criteria may have public health benefit

Dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men.

Dietary patterns are a major risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, few studies have examined this relationship in older adults. We examined prospective associations between dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in 3226 older British men, aged 60-79 years and free from CVD at baseline, from the British Regional Heart Study. Baseline FFQ data were used to generate thirty-four food groups. Principal component analysis identified dietary patterns that were categorised into quartiles, with higher quartiles representing higher adherence to the dietary pattern. Cox proportional hazards examined associations between dietary patterns and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. We identified three interpretable dietary patterns: 'high fat/low fibre' (high in red meat, meat products, white bread, fried potato, eggs), 'prudent' (high in poultry, fish, fruits, vegetables, legumes, pasta, rice, wholemeal bread, eggs, olive oil) and 'high sugar' (high in biscuits, puddings, chocolates, sweets, sweet spreads, breakfast cereals). During 11 years of follow-up, 899 deaths, 316 CVD-related deaths, 569 CVD events and 301 CHD events occurred. The 'high-fat/low-fibre' dietary pattern was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality only, after adjustment for confounders (highest v. lowest quartile; hazard ratio 1·44; 95 % CI 1·13, 1·84). Adherence to a 'high-sugar' diet was associated with a borderline significant trend for an increased risk of CVD and CHD events. The 'prudent' diet did not show a significant trend with cardiovascular outcomes or mortality. Avoiding 'high-fat/low-fibre' and 'high-sugar' dietary components may reduce the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in older adults

Hearing impairment and incident disability and all-cause mortality in older British community-dwelling men.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: hearing impairment is common in older adults and has been implicated in the risk of disability and mortality. We examined the association between hearing impairment and risk of incident disability and all-cause mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: prospective cohort of community-dwelling older men aged 63-85 followed up for disability over 2 years and for all-cause mortality for 10 years in the British Regional Heart Study. METHODS: data were collected on self-reported hearing impairment including hearing aid use, and disability assessed as mobility limitations (problems walking/taking stairs), difficulties with activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL). Mortality data were obtained from the National Health Service register. RESULTS: among 3,981 men, 1,074 (27%) reported hearing impairment. Compared with men with no hearing impairment, men who could hear and used a hearing aid, and men who could not hear despite a hearing aid had increased risks of IADL difficulties (age-adjusted OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.29-2.70; OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.53-4.93, respectively). The associations remained after further adjustment for covariates including social class, lifestyle factors, co-morbidities and social engagement. Associations of hearing impairment with incident mobility limitations, incident ADL difficulties and all-cause mortality were attenuated on adjustment for covariates. CONCLUSION: this study suggests that hearing problems in later life could increase the risk of having difficulties performing IADLs, which include more complex everyday tasks such as shopping and light housework. However, further studies are needed to determine the associations observed including the underlying pathways

Associations between fibrin D-dimer, markers of inflammation, incident self-reported mobility limitation, and all-cause mortality in older men

Objectives To examine the independent relationships between fibrin D-dimer, interleukin 6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and fibrinogen and incident mobility limitation and mortality. Design Prospective. Setting General practice in 24 British towns. Participants Men aged 60 to 79 without prevalent heart failure followed up for an average of 11.5 years (N = 3,925). Measurements All-cause mortality (n = 1,286) and self-reported mobility disability obtained at examination in 1998 to 2000 and in a postal questionnaire 3 to 5 years later in 2003. Results High D-dimer (top vs lowest tertile: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–2.05) and IL-6 (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.01–2.02) levels (but not CRP or fibrinogen) were associated with greater incident mobility limitation after adjustment for confounders and prevalent disease status. IL-6, CRP, fibrinogen, and D-dimer were significantly associated with total mortality after adjustment for confounders. Only D-dimer and IL-6 predicted total mortality independent of each other and the other biomarkers. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.16 (95% CI = 1.10–1.22) for a standard deviation increase in log D-dimer and 1.10 (95% CI = 1.04–1.18) for a standard deviation increase in log IL-6. D-dimer was independently related to vascular and nonvascular mortality, and IL-6 was independently related to vascular mortality. Risks of mobility limitation and mortality were greatest in those with a combination of high D-dimer and IL-6 levels. Conclusion D-dimer and IL-6 are associated with risk of mobility limitation and mortality in older men without heart failure. The findings suggest that coagulation leads to functional decline and mortality s that inflammation does not explain

Adiposity in early, middle and later adult life and cardiometabolic risk markers in later life; findings from the British regional heart study.

OBJECTIVES: This research investigates the associations between body mass index (BMI) at 21, 40-59, 60-79 years of age on cardiometabolic risk markers at 60-79 years. METHODS: A prospective study of 3464 British men with BMI measured at 40-59 and 60-79 years, when cardiometabolic risk was assessed. BMI at 21 years was ascertained from military records, or recalled from middle-age (adjusted for reporting bias); associations between BMI at different ages and later cardiometabolic risk markers were examined using linear regression. Sensitive period, accumulation and mobility life course models were devised for high BMI (defined as BMI≥75th centile) and compared with a saturated BMI trajectory model. RESULTS: At ages 21, 40-59 and 60-79 years, prevalences of overweight (BMI≥25 kg/m2) were 12%, 53%, 70%, and obesity (≥30 kg/m2) 1.6%, 6.6%, and 17.6%, respectively. BMI at 21 years was positively associated with serum insulin, blood glucose, and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 1.5% (95%CI 0.8,2.3%), 0.4% (0.1,0.6%), 0.3% (0.1,0.4%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively, but showed no associations with blood pressure or blood cholesterol. However, these associations were modest compared to those between BMI at 60-79 years and serum insulin, blood glucose and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 8.6% (8.0,9.2%), 0.7% (0.5,0.9%), and 0.5% (0.4,0.7%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively. BMI at 60-79 years was also associated with total cholesterol and blood pressure. Associations for BMI at 40-59 years were mainly consistent with those of BMI at 60-79 years. None of the life course models fitted the data as well as the saturated model for serum insulin. A sensitive period at 50 years for glucose and HbA1c and sensitive period at 70 years for blood pressure were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of men who were thin compared to more contemporary cohorts, BMI in later life was the dominant influence on cardiovascular and diabetes risk. BMI in early adult life may have a small long-term effect on diabetes risk

Objectively measured physical activity, sedentary behaviour and all-cause mortality in older men: does volume of activity matter more than pattern of accumulation?

OBJECTIVES: To understand how device-measured sedentary behaviour and physical activity are related to all-cause mortality in older men, an age group with high levels of inactivity and sedentary behaviour. METHODS: Prospective population-based cohort study of men recruited from 24 UK General Practices in 1978-1980. In 2010-2012, 3137 surviving men were invited to a follow-up, 1655 (aged 71-92 years) agreed. Nurses measured height and weight, men completed health and demographic questionnaires and wore an ActiGraph GT3x accelerometer. All-cause mortality was collected through National Health Service central registers up to 1 June 2016. RESULTS: After median 5.0 years' follow-up, 194 deaths occurred in 1181 men without pre-existing cardiovascular disease. For each additional 30 min in sedentary behaviour, or light physical activity (LIPA), or 10 min in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), HRs for mortality were 1.17 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.25), 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.90) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.96), respectively. Adjustments for confounders did not meaningfully change estimates. Only LIPA remained significant on mutual adjustment for all intensities. The HR for accumulating 150 min MVPA/week in sporadic minutes (achieved by 66% of men) was 0.59 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.81) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.33 to 1.00) for accumulating 150 min MVPA/week in bouts lasting ≥10 min (achieved by 16% of men). Sedentary breaks were not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In older men, all activities (of light intensity upwards) were beneficial and accumulation of activity in bouts ≥10 min did not appear important beyond total volume of activity. Findings can inform physical activity guidelines for older adults

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied).We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell’s concordance index, and Royston’s discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using aweighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from casecontrol studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Ian R. White, Simon G. Thompson, Angela M. Wood and the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (Debbie A. Lawlor