27 research outputs found

    Graphs illustrating the model predictions of the effect of spatial heterogeneity given the baseline input values in Tables (1, 2, 3).

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    <p>The mean predicted numbers of appropriate treatments if a protocol based on the Vientiane epidemiology is applied nationally is plotted in Graph (a) for a range of values for national and regional variation. The 2.5% and 97.5% prediction intervals are plotted in Graphs (c) and (e). The mean additional numbers of appropriate treatments (i.e. the potential impact) predicted if a spatially explicit treatment protocol based on the incidence not only in Vientiane but also in three sentinel provinces were applied is plotted in Graph (b) for the same range of national and regional variation. The 2.5% and 97.5% prediction intervals are plotted in Graphs (c) and (f).</p

    Model fits to data and validation.

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    <p>Model predictions are shown as red lines and surveillance data in black (subgroups) or blue (summary). <b>A</b> Model validated with to surveillance data for Kampot Operational District (OD) (2004–2010). The malaria control strategies used are shown. <b>B–E</b> Model fitted to data from the field study (2004–2007). <b>B–C</b> Reductions in <i>P. falciparum</i> asexual stage parasite (<b>B</b>) and gametocyte (<b>C</b>) prevalences in 17 villages in Kampong Speu OD. The strategy used was treatment with ACT plus single dose adjunctive primaquine for three years and a single MDA with ACT and multiple rounds of primaquine MDA. <b>D</b> Reduction in <i>P. falciparum</i> asexual parasite prevalence in 3 villages in Kampot OD with MDA and treatment as above, although with lower coverage, followed by a second MDA of ACT plus single dose adjunctive primaquine with higher coverage (dotted line) at 42 days. <b>E</b> Reduction in <i>P. falciparum</i> asexual parasite prevalence in 4 villages in Kampong Speu OD with the same strategy as <b>D</b> but with the second MDA (dotted line) at 1 year.</p

    Summary of structure of mathematical model.

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    <p><b>A</b> shows the basic model unit with parasite life cycle stages in the human host, antimalarial drug action and immunity. <b>B</b> shows the unit in <b>A</b> repeated three times to track parasites resistant to artemisinins and ACT partner drug. <b>C</b> shows multiple repetitions of <b>B</b> to reproduce the various strategies used in the trial. In A, ‘blood stage’ refers to individuals with asexual stage parasites in the peripheral blood but no gametocytes and ‘infectious stage’ is individuals with gametocytes.</p
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