115 research outputs found

    Shock interactions with heavy gaseous elliptic cylinders: Two leeward-side shock competition modes and a heuristic model for interfacial circulation deposition at early times

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    We identify two different modes, types I and II, of the interaction for planar shocks accelerating heavy prolate gaseous ellipses. These modes arise from different interactions of the incident shock (IS) and transmitted shock (TS) on the leeward side of the ellipse. A time ratio t_T/t_I(M,Ī·,Ī»,γ_0,γ_b), which characterizes the mode of interaction, is derived heuristically. Here, the principal parameters governing the interaction are the Mach number of the shock (M), the ratio of the density of the ellipse to the ambient gas density, (Ī·>1), γ_0, γ_b (the ratios of specific heats of the two gases), Ī» (the aspect ratio). Salient events in shock–ellipse interactions are identified and correlated with their signatures in circulation budgets and on-axis space–time pressure diagrams. The two modes yield different mechanisms of the baroclinic vorticity generation. We present a heuristic model for the net baroclinic circulation generated on the interface at the end of the early-time phase by both the IS and TS and validate the model via numerical simulations of the Euler equations. In the range 1.2⩽M⩽3.5, 1.54⩽η⩽5.04, and Ī»=1.5 and 3.0, our model predicts the baroclinic circulation on the interface within a band of ±10% in comparison to converged numerical simulations

    SketchSeeker : Finding Similar Sketches

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    Searching is an important tool for managing and navigating the massive amounts of data available in today’s information age. While new searching methods have be-come increasingly popular and reliable in recent years, such as image-based searching, these methods are more limited than text-based means in that they don’t allow generic user input. Sketch-based searching is a method that allows users to draw generic search queries and return similar drawn images, giving more user control over their search content. In this thesis, we present Sketchseeker, a system for indexing and searching across a large number of sketches quickly based on their similarity. The system includes several stages. First, sketches are indexed according to efficient and compact sketch descriptors. Second, the query retrieval subsystem considers sketches based on shape and structure similarity. Finally, a trained support vector machine classifier provides semantic filtering, which is then combined with median filtering to return the ranked results. SketchSeeker was tested on a large set of sketches against existing sketch similarity metrics, and it shows significant improvements in both speed and accuracy when compared to existing known techniques. The focus of this thesis is to outline the general components of a sketch retrieval system to find near similar sketches in real time

    Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

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    We construct and verify a statistical method to nowcast influenza activity from a time-series of the frequency of reports concerning influenza related topics. Such reports are published electronically by both public health organizations as well as newspapers/media sources, and thus can be harvested easily via web crawlers. Since media reports are timely, whereas reports from public health organization are delayed by at least two weeks, using timely, open-source data to compensate for the lag in %E2%80%9Cofficial%E2%80%9D reports can be useful. We use morbidity data from networks of sentinel physicians (both the Center of Disease Control's ILINet and France's Sentinelles network) as the gold standard of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. The time-series of media reports is obtained from HealthMap (http://healthmap.org). We find that the time-series of media reports shows some correlation ( 0.5) with ILI activity; further, this can be leveraged into an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX model) to nowcast ILI activity. We find that the ARMAX models have more predictive skill compared to autoregressive (AR) models fitted to ILI data i.e., it is possible to exploit the information content in the open-source data. We also find that when the open-source data are non-informative, the ARMAX models reproduce the performance of AR models. The statistical models are tested on data from the 2009 swine-flu outbreak as well as the mild 2011-2012 influenza season in the U.S.A

    Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

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    Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation

    An approach for estimating the uncertainty in ParaDiS predictions.

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