74 research outputs found

    Anxiety and Learning in Dynamic and Static Clock Game Experiments

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    In clock games, agents receive differently-timed private signals when an asset value is above its fundamental. The price crashes to the fundamental when K of N agents have decided to sell. If selling decisions are private, bubbles can be sustained because people delay selling, after receiving signals, knowing that others will delay too. Our results replicate the main features of the one previous experimental study of clock game (in two subject pools): Selling delays are shorter than predicted, but converge toward equilibrium predictions over repeated trials. We also find that delays are shorter in a dynamic game in which selling decisions unfold over time, compared to a static equivalent in which subjects precommit to selling decisions. A model of learning with growing anxiety after signal arrival can reproduce the empirical observations of shorter-than-predicted delay, smaller delay after later signal arrival, and shorter delays in dynamic games

    Positive Temporal Dependence of the Biological Clock Implies Hyperbolic Discounting

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    Temporal preferences of animals and humans often exhibit inconsistencies, whereby an earlier, smaller reward may be preferred when it occurs immediately but not when it is delayed. Such choices reflect hyperbolic discounting of future rewards, rather than the exponential discounting required for temporal consistency. Simultaneously, however, evidence has emerged that suggests that animals and humans have an internal representation of time that often differs from the calendar time used in detection of temporal inconsistencies. Here, we prove that temporal inconsistencies emerge if fixed durations in calendar time are experienced as positively related (positive quadrant dependent). Hence, what are time-consistent choices within the time framework of the decision maker appear as time-inconsistent to an outsider who analyzes choices in calendar time. As the biological clock becomes more variable, the fit of the hyperbolic discounting model improves. A recent alternative explanation for temporal choice inconsistencies builds on persistent under-estimation of the length of distant time intervals. By increasing the expected speed of our stochastic biological clock for time farther into the future, we can emulate this explanation. Ours is therefore an encompassing theoretical framework that predicts context-dependent degrees of intertemporal choice inconsistencies, to the extent that context can generate changes in autocorrelation, variability, and expected speed of the biological clock. Our finding should lead to novel experiments that will clarify the role of time perception in impulsivity, with critical implications for, among others, our understanding of aging, drug abuse, and pathological gambling

    Loss Aversion in Post-Sale Purchases of Consumer Products and Their Substitutes

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    This paper considers the measurement of consumer loss aversion in product markets. We introduce a test based on a "substitution effect," focusing on how the end of a sale affects sales not of the good itself, but a substitute good. Such an effect cannot be easily confounded with consumer stockpiling. Using a unique dataset from an online hardware retailer, we find evidence consistent with consumer loss aversion. Moreover, we find that less experienced consumers suffer a more prominent loss aversion bias compared to more experienced consumers

    Bayesian Model of Behaviour in Economic Games

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    Classical game theoretic approaches that make strong rationality assumptions have difficulty modeling human behaviour in economic games. We investigate the role of finite levels of iterated reasoning and non-selfish utility functions in a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process model that incorporates game theoretic notions of interactivity. Our generative model captures a broad class of characteristic behaviours in a multi-round Investor-Trustee game. We invert the generative process for a recognition model that is used to classify 200 subjects playing this game against randomly matched opponents

    GeneMANIA: a real-time multiple association network integration algorithm for predicting gene function

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    Abstract Background: Most successful computational approaches for protein function prediction integrate multiple genomics and proteomics data sources to make inferences about the function of unknown proteins. The most accurate of these algorithms have long running times, making them unsuitable for real-time protein function prediction in large genomes. As a result, the predictions of these algorithms are stored in static databases that can easily become outdated. We propose a new algorithm, GeneMANIA, that is as accurate as the leading methods, while capable of predicting protein function in real-time. Results: We use a fast heuristic algorithm, derived from ridge regression, to integrate multiple functional association networks and predict gene function from a single process-specific network using label propagation. Our algorithm is efficient enough to be deployed on a modern webserver and is as accurate as, or more so than, the leading methods on the MouseFunc I benchmark and a new yeast function prediction benchmark; it is robust to redundant and irrelevant data and requires, on average, less than ten seconds of computation time on tasks from these benchmarks. Conclusion: GeneMANIA is fast enough to predict gene function on-the-fly while achieving state-of-the-art accuracy. A prototype version of a GeneMANIA-based webserver is available at http://morrislab.med.utoronto.ca/prototype

    Improved delivery of repaglinide through different polymeric devices

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    Repaglinide (RGL) loaded polymeric drug delivery devices like microcapsules (MC) and transdermal patches (TDP) were formulated and there in vitro-in vivo parameters compared to find out the best route of drug delivery. The formulations were subjected to various studies like hypoglycemic activity, glucose tolerance and pharmacokinetic studies. The formulation TDP1 having drug-polymer ratio 1:1 showed comparatively higher RGL release and better permeation across mice skin. Comparatively higher RGL content was found in TDP1 (99.6 ± 1.8 %) than MC1 (89.2 ± 2.3 %). From the glucose tolerance test, transdermal route effectively maintained the normoglycemic levels in contrast to the oral group, which produced remarkable hypoglycemia. The significantly high area under curve (AUC) values observed with transdermal system also indicate increased bioavailability of drug from these systems compared to oral route. The transdermal system of RGL exhibited better control of hyperglycemia besides more effectively reversing the complications associated with diabetes mellitus than oral administration in mice.Colegio de Farmacéuticos de la Provincia de Buenos Aire