On the Estimation of the Distribution of Power Generated at a Wind Farm using Forecast Data

New regulations on the supply of electrical energy in Ireland have introduced a system of suppliers bidding proposals for the cost of supply for each 30 minute period of the following day. In order to effectively bid and hedge against adverse events, it is necessary to assess the uncertainty of supply from wind energy farms. Hence, the aim of this study group was to estimate the distribution of power supply from a given set of wind farms a day in advance given forecast data

Correlated Equilibria in Competitive Staff Selection Problem

This paper deals with an extension of the concept of correlated strategies to Markov stopping games. The Nash equilibrium approach to solving nonzero-sum stopping games may give multiple solutions. An arbitrator can suggest to each player the decision to be applied at each stage based on a joint distribution over the players' decisions. This is a form of equilibrium selection. Examples of correlated equilibria in nonzero-sum games related to the staff selection competition in the case of two departments are given. Utilitarian, egalitarian, republican and libertarian concepts of correlated equilibria selection are used.Comment: The idea of this paper was presented at Game Theory and Mathematical Economics, International Conference in Memory of Jerzy Los(1920 - 1998), Warsaw, September 200

Li I enhancement during a long-duration stellar flare

We report the possible detection of a Li I 6708 AA line enhancement during an unusual long-duration optical flare in the recently discovered, X-ray/EUV selected, chromospherically active binary 2RE J0743+224. The Li I equivalent width (EW) variations follow the temporal evolution of the flare and large changes are observed in the intensity of the line. The maximum Li I enhancement occurs just after the maximum chromospheric emission observed in the flare. A significant increase of the 6Li/7Li isotopic ratio is also detected. No significant simultaneous variations are detected in other photospheric lines. Neither line blends nor starspots seem to be the primary cause of the observed Li I line variation. From all this we suggest that this Li I enhancement is produced by spallation reactions during the flare.Comment: Latex file with 5 pages, 2 figures tar'ed gzip'ed. Full postscript (text and figures) available at http://www.ucm.es/OTROS/Astrof/pub_dmg.html To be published in A&A, Lette

MHD simulations of the formation and propagation of protostellar jets to observational length scales

We present 2.5-D global, ideal MHD simulations of magnetically and rotationally driven protostellar jets from Keplerian accretion discs, wherein only the initial magnetic field strength at the inner radius of the disc, $B_{\rm i}$, is varied. Using the AMR-MHD code AZEUS, we self-consistently follow the jet evolution into the observational regime ($>10^3\,\mathrm{AU}$) with a spatial dynamic range of $\sim6.5\times10^5$. The simulations reveal a three-component outflow: 1) A hot, dense, super-fast and highly magnetised 'jet core'; 2) a cold, rarefied, trans-fast and highly magnetised 'sheath' surrounding the jet core and extending to a tangential discontinuity; and 3) a warm, dense, trans-slow and weakly magnetised shocked ambient medium entrained by the advancing bow shock. The simulations reveal power-law relationships between $B_{\rm i}$ and the jet advance speed, $v_{\rm jet}$, the average jet rotation speed, $\langle v_\varphi\rangle$, as well as fluxes of mass, momentum, and kinetic energy. Quantities that do not depend on $B_{\rm i}$ include the plasma-$\beta$ of the transported material which, in all cases, seems to asymptote to order unity. Jets are launched by a combination of the 'magnetic tower' and 'bead-on-a-wire' mechanisms, with the former accounting for most of the jet acceleration---even for strong fields---and continuing well beyond the fast magnetosonic point. At no time does the leading bow shock leave the domain and, as such, these simulations generate large-scale jets that reproduce many of the observed properties of protostellar jets including their characteristic speeds and transported fluxes.Comment: 26 pages, 16 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Correlated equilibria in competitive staff selection problem

This paper deals with an extension of the concept of correlated strategies to Markov stopping games. The idea of this paper was presented at Game Theory and Mathematical Economics, International Conference in Memory of Jerzy Łoś (1920 - 1998), Warsaw, September 2004. The Nash equilibrium approach to solving nonzero-sum stopping games may give multiple solutions. An arbitrator can suggest to each player the decision to be applied at each stage based on a joint distribution over the players' decisions. This is a form of equilibrium selection. Examples of correlated equilibria in nonzero-sum games related to the staff selection competition in the case of two departments are given. Utilitarian, egalitarian, republican and libertarian concepts of correlated equilibria selection are used.correlated equilibria, Nash equilibria, non-zero sum game, secretary problem

A Model of Partnership Formation with Friction and Multiple Criteria

We present a model of partnership formation based on two discrete character traits. There are two classes of individual. Each individual observes a sequence of potential partners from the other class. The traits are referred to as attractiveness and character, respectively. All individuals prefer partners of high attractiveness and similar character. Attractiveness can be measured instantly. However, in order to observe the character of an individual, a costly interview (or date) is required. On observing the attractiveness of a prospective partner, an individual must decide whether he/she wishes to proceed to the interview stage. During the interview phase, the prospective pair observe each other's character and then decide whether they wish to form a pair. Mutual acceptance is required for both an interview to occur and a pair to form. An individual stops searching on nding a partner. A set of criteria based on the concept of a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium is used to define an equilibrium of this game. It is argued that under such a general formulation there may be multiple equilibria. For this reason, we define a specific formulation of the game, the so called symmetric version, which has a unique symmetric equilibrium. The form of this equilibrium has some similarities to the block separating equilibrium derived for classical models of two-sided mate choice and job search problems, but is essentially different.mutual mate choice, game theory, common preferences, homotypic preferences, subgame perfect equilibrium

The Paternalistic Relationship: Authenticity and credibility as a source of healthy relationships

This article explores the how the Paternalistic Leadership model can be viewed as part of a relationship-based paradigm of leadership, and can incorporate concepts such as credibility and authenticity. The review highlights the need to understand paternalistic leadership as an approach to establishing productive relationships within a cultural context, with implications for researchers and practitioners in both collectivist and individualistic cultures

Outside the fence,\u27 the threat to the U.S. Aviation Industry

The purpose of this thesis was to examine the threat to the Aviation Industry from within the United States. The overall investigation starts with one assumption “that there will at some time in the near future be a covert operative group that desires to attack or engage the United States in war on its home land.” The principles of war will be analyzed resulting in covert cell guidance specifically; “economy of force” will require the covert units to be as small as possible to affect as many nodes as possible. Endurance will require the covert team to restrict any tactics that would be high risk, and would prohibit the use of suicide tactics. There has also been a redefinition of warfare in the last several years. What has emerged is a form of unrestricted warfare. The covert cell may abide by the principles of war while engaging the U.S. in unrestricted warfare. These assumptions lead to a center of gravity determination and terrorism as the possible action for the desired effect. Attack and weapon selection analysis results in the selection of the 50 caliber sniper rifle with armor-piercing incendiary ammunition as the most probable attack tactic executed against urban airport environments. Possible solution analysis of acoustic, mid wave infrared and optical augmentation systems reveals the advantages of each of these approaches. The conclusion is that open system architecture should be used to tailor the sensor suite around each airport based on the vital area locations with respect to the urban layout and the best sniping positions. This will lead to a multi- layer and multi-system defensive posture around each airport significantly reducing the risk of a drawn out terror campaign which involves the airline industry