Assessing Monetary Policy Efficiency in the ASEAN-5 Countries

This paper investigates whether or not monetary policy has been conducted efficiently in five selected ASEAN economies. It derives a utility-consistent social loss function, as a metric for welfare, to assess monetary policy efficiency in a small open economy model. An optimal monetary policy that minimises the social loss function is solved using information on structural parameters estimated for a model that represents each of the selected ASEAN-5 countries. The results are largely consistent with common wisdom in the literature, where policies based on credible commitment give the best welfare outcome. The paper further examines the welfare implications of the currently adopted simple monetary policy feedback rule for each of the sample economies. This exercise points out that there is room for improving the performance of monetary policy in each country, and it should be explored further. It also suggests the possibility that monetary authorities in the sample countries may be optimising over an objective function that di§er from the social welfare function derived in the paper.ASEAN, monetary policy, optimal policy rules, social welfare function

Approximating Monetary Policy: Case Study for the ASEAN-5

Empirical studies on the process of monetary policy making in a number of advanced economies have shown that a simple policy reaction function (PRF) performs well in explaining the setting of monetary policy. This paper examines an application of a simple PRF in an attempt to broaden the understanding of monetary policy making processes in five developing ASEAN countries. As found to be the case in the more advanced economies, a simple PRF is also found to perform well in explaining the setting of monetary policy in these countries. Moreover, the findings uncover the main drivers behind the conduct of monetary policy and provide a relatively consistent explanation about the monetary policy episodes in the sample economies.Monetary policy, policy reaction function, ASEAN

ASEAN Monetary Cooperation: issues and prospects

Among other things, the 1997–98 East Asian financial crisis has led to questioning within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) about whether the region needs a common currency. This paper aims to discuss the underlying economic issues and prospects, from both a theoretical and a practical point view. The analysis focuses only on the five largest ASEAN nations. Standard criteria suggested by the theory of Optimal Currency Areas are reviewed and applied to the region. The paper then provides a discussion on possible steps that can be pursued to realize currency union

ASEAN Monetary Cooperation : Issues and Prospects

Among other things, the 199798 East Asian financial crisis has led to questioning within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) about whether the region needs a common currency. This paper aims to discuss the underlying economic issues and prospects, from both a theoretical and a practical point view. The analysis focuses only on the five largest ASEAN nations. Standard criteria suggested by the theory of Optimal Currency Areas are reviewed and applied to the region. The paper then provides a discussion on possible steps that can be pursued to realise currency union.ASEAN, Monetary cooperation, exchange rates

Economic Growth And Government Size In Indonesia: Some Lessons For The Local Authorities

The relationship between economic growth and government spending (the size of the government involvement in economic activity) is an interesting issue that has been a subject of controversy and debate. The direction of how government size associates with economic growth has so far been inconclusive. This paper attempts to examine the relationship between both variables for the case of Indonesia. The issue would be of interest for it provides room to examine the impact of government size on economic growth in the country. Furthermore, in the light of the undergoing process of fiscal decentralization in Indonesia, it also provides some lessons for the local authorities in the provincial and district level. To investigate the relationship, a sample of time series data from 1969 to 1999 on Indonesia is being used. The result of the econometric estimation suggests that economic growth is negatively associated with government size both in the long run and in the short run. Some possible explanations and interpretations on the finding are provided for this tendency of growth impeding nature of the relative government size in the economy. Then, some lessons for the local authorities in managing their own budget are being drawn as a note of cautions.economic growth, government spending

Reliability of Structural Shocks Estimates from a Bivariate SVAR Model - The Case of Southeast Asian Countries

In order to assess the symmetry in the nature of structural shocks for a bloc of countries to form a currency union, long-run identifying restrictions to simple bivariate models are often used. This study attempts to assess the reliability of the estimated structural shocks produced from applications of these kinds of models by looking at their consistency in representing the designated shocks. The case examined covers some countries in the Southeast Asian bloc. The finding suggests that the commingling shocks problems exist. Exercise using larger models and higher frequency data is then advisable.Structural Shocks Estimates, Bivariate SVAR Model, South East Asia

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues.Monetary policy effectiveness; exchange rate; stock prices; crisis; Asian economies

Population Aging and Aggregate Consumption in Developing Asia

One of developing Asia's foremost structural economic challenges is the need to rebalance demand and growth toward domestic sources in the face of one of its most significant structural shifts - the demographic transition to an older population. The scope for investment-led growth may be quite limited, so the key to growth is stronger domestic demand, and the key to stronger domestic demand is greater consumption. We examined the impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the share of consumption in the gross domestic products of 31 developing Asian economies and 122 from outside the region from 1998 to 2007. In addition, we tested for a possible difference in its effect in the Asian economies relative to the rest of the sample. The analysis suggests a positive relationship between population aging and consumption though evidence for developing Asia was weaker than that for the rest of the sample. This implies that the aging population may not be contributing as significantly to robust consumption and domestic demand as it does in the rest of the world. In order to rebalance their economies, developing Asian governments must therefore continue to pursue a wide range of policies to promote stronger domestic demand

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Small Open Economies: More or Less Effective During the Global Financial Crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 1% fall in stock market indices. The effect on exchange rates is notably weaker in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with a managed float. For the OECD countries, there is no robust evidence of a change in the effect of policy during the global financial crisis. For the non-OECD countries, there is some evidence of a stronger effect of policy on stock markets during the crisis, although further research is needed to investigate whether this is a result of measurement issues

Contingent claims analysis of sovereign debt sustainability in Asian emerging markets

Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile "distance to distress" measure suggests that any of these countries may fall victim to a sudden loss in market confidence. For example, the value of Indonesia's sovereign assets dropped to just two standard deviations above its repayment obligations during the 2013 Fed taper tantrum, causing capital outflows and currency depreciation. Generally, we find that contingent claims analysis and market-based risk measures well complement conventional debt sustainability analysis for Asia