Selection effects in forensic science

In this report we consider the following question: does a forensic expert need to know exactly how the evidential material was selected? We set up a few simple models of situations in which the way evidence is selected may influence its value in court. Although reality is far from a probabilistic model, and one should be very careful when applying theoretical results to real life situations, we believe that the results in our models indicate how the selection of evidence affects its value. We conclude that selection effects in forensic science can be quite important, and that from a statistical point of view, improvements can be made to court room practice

A probabilistic approach to Zhang's sandpile model

The current literature on sandpile models mainly deals with the abelian sandpile model (ASM) and its variants. We treat a less known - but equally interesting - model, namely Zhang's sandpile. This model differs in two aspects from the ASM. First, additions are not discrete, but random amounts with a uniform distribution on an interval $[a,b]$. Second, if a site topples - which happens if the amount at that site is larger than a threshold value $E_c$ (which is a model parameter), then it divides its entire content in equal amounts among its neighbors. Zhang conjectured that in the infinite volume limit, this model tends to behave like the ASM in the sense that the stationary measure for the system in large volumes tends to be peaked narrowly around a finite set. This belief is supported by simulations, but so far not by analytical investigations. We study the stationary distribution of this model in one dimension, for several values of $a$ and $b$. When there is only one site, exact computations are possible. Our main result concerns the limit as the number of sites tends to infinity, in the one-dimensional case. We find that the stationary distribution, in the case $a \geq E_c/2$, indeed tends to that of the ASM (up to a scaling factor), in agreement with Zhang's conjecture. For the case $a=0$, $b=1$ we provide strong evidence that the stationary expectation tends to $\sqrt{1/2}$.Comment: 47 pages, 3 figure