The Effects of Disaggregate Oil Shocks on the Aggregate Expected Skewness of the United States

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables in the quarterly period of 1975:Q1 to 2022:Q2. We find that positive oil supply and global economic activity shocks increase the expected macroeconomic skewness in a statistically significant way, with the effects being relatively more pronounced in the lower regime of the aggregate skewness factor, i.e., when the US is witnessing downside risks. Interestingly, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks contain no predictive ability for the overall expected skewness. With skewness being a metric for policymakers to communicate their beliefs about the path of future risks, our results have important implications for policy decisions.</p

The impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from a large panel of 45 countries

Using local projection methods, this paper employs monthly panel data from 1989 to 2017 to examine both linear and nonlinear impulse responses of macroeconomic uncertainty to structural shocks to global oil production, aggregate demand, oil-market-specific demand and speculative demand in a large group of 45 economies. We find that both oil supply and demand shocks are important drivers of uncertainty. There is strong evidence that the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty are regime-dependent and contingent on the states of investor sentiments and perceived volatility in financial markets. The responses of economic uncertainty to oil shocks, especially demand-side shocks, appear to experience a dramatic change in the post-Global Financial Crisis period

Facile Approach to the Fabrication of a Micropattern Possessing Nanoscale Substructure

On the basis of the combined technologies of photolithography and reaction-induced phase separation (RIPS), a facile approach has been successfully developed for the fabrication of a micropattern possessing nanoscale substructure on the thin film surface. This approach involves three steps. In the first step, a thin film was prepared by spin coating from a solution of a commercial random copolymer, polystyrene-r-poly(methyl methacrylate) (PS-r-PMMA) and a commercial crosslinker, trimethylolpropane triacrylate (TMPTA). In the second step, photolithograph was performed with the thin film using a 250 W high-pressure mercury lamp to produce the micropattern. Finally, the resulting micropattern was annealed at 200 °C for a certain time, and reaction-induced phase separation occurred. After soaking in chloroform for 4 h, nanoscale substructure was obtained. The whole processes were traced by atomic force microscopy (AFM), X-ray photoelectron spectrometry (XPS), and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and the results supported the proposed structure

The Effects of Disaggregate Oil Shocks on the Aggregate Expected Skewness of the United States

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables in the quarterly period of 1975:Q1 to 2022:Q2. We find that positive oil supply and global economic activity shocks increase the expected macroeconomic skewness in a statistically significant way, with the effects being relatively more pronounced in the lower regime of the aggregate skewness factor, i.e., when the US is witnessing downside risks. Interestingly, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks contain no predictive ability for the overall expected skewness. With skewness being a metric for policymakers to communicate their beliefs about the path of future risks, our results have important implications for policy decisions.</p

Movements in real estate uncertainty in the United States: the role of oil shocks

In this paper, we analyse the role played by disaggregated oil shocks in driving real estate uncertainty (REU) over the monthly period of 1975:02 to 2017:12, based on impulse response functions generated from the local projection method. We find that the oil-specific consumption demand shock is statistically the strongest predictor of higher future REU, followed by the significant negative impact from the aggregate supply shock, especially for long-run REU. While the oil inventory demand shock has a short-lived positive impact on REU, global economic activity shock virtually plays no role in driving the same. Our results have important implications for policymakers and investors

Disaggregated oil shocks and stock-market tail risks: Evidence from a panel of 48 economics

We analyse the impact of oil supply, global economic activity, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil-inventory demand shocks on equity-market tail risks of a panel of 48 developed and emerging economies over the monthly period from 1975:01 to 2017:12. We find that, oil supply, global economic activity, and oil-inventory demand shocks reduce tail risks, but oil-specific consumption demand shock increases tail risks, with these effects stronger in oil-exporting economies. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers

Additional file 1 of Survival and analysis of prognostic factors for severe burn patients with inhalation injury: based on the respiratory SOFA score

Additional file 1: Supplementary material 1. Receiver operating characteristic curve diagnostic value for prognostic factors for severe burn patients with inhalation injury

The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?

This study analyses the effects of oil price volatility on financial stress with various measures for a large panel of countries. The study places a special focus on comparing the pattern of these effects during the Great Recession period and the COVID-19 recession period. Using the local projection approach, the paper finds that oil price volatility has a positive and persistent effect on financial stress. However, the magnitude and the degree of persistency of oil price volatility impacts on financial stress are much greater for the Great Recession period than for the COVID-19 recession period. A possible explanation for this result would be that COVID-19 is better thought of as a “natural disaster” in which companies under stress were not being mismanaged. Another explanation would be that active intervention by the government through monetary and fiscal channels reduces the sensitivity of financial instability to oil price volatility during the COVID-19 period

Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth

This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs

Data for: Regional renewable energy development in China: A multidimensional assessment

China provincial economic, energy and environmental data