Testing the predective validity of the time trade-off and the Stardard Gamble

This paper tests the consistency of health utility measurements with individual preferences. We compare three methods, the time trade-off, the standard gamble and a version of the standard gamble that corrects for the deviations from expected utility modelled by prospect theory. Individual preferences are measured both through a ranking task and through a choice task. In decisions involving no risk the time trade-off is most consistent with people’s preferences with the standard gamble a close second. In decisions involving risk the corrected standard gamble is most consistent with people’s preferences. Our data do not support the common assumption in health economics that utility is transferable across decision contexts.Health utility measurement, QALYs,stardard gamble, time trade-off, prospect theory.

A new preference reversal in health utility measurement

A central assumption in health utility measurement is that preferences are invariant to the elicitation method that is used. This assumptioin is challenged by preferences reversals. Previous studies have observed prefrence resersals between choise and matching tasks and between choise and ranking tasks. We present a new preference reversal that entirely choise-based. Because choise is the basic primitive of economics and utility theory, this preference reversal is more fundamental and troubling. The preference reversal was observed in two studies regarding health states after stroke. Both studies involved large representative samples from the Spanish population, interwied professionally and face-to-face. Possible explanations for the preference reversal are the anticipation of disappointment and elation is risky choise anda the impact of ethical co0nsiderations about the value of live.Health utility measurement, preference reversal, choice behavior

A New Type of Preference Reversal

The classic preference reversal phenomenon arises in a comparison between a choice and a matching task. We present a new type of preference reversal which is entirely choice-based. Because choice is the basic primitive of economics, the preference reversal we observe is more troubling for economics. The preference reversal was observed in two experiments, both involving large representative samples from the Spanish population. The data were collected by professional interviewers in face-to-face interviews. Possible explanations for the preference reversal are the anticipation of disappointment and elation in risky choice and the impact of ethical considerations.Preference reversal, Choice behavior, Stochastic dominance, Disappointment and elation, Health

A statistical approach to the precipitation of iron as jarosite

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Sequencing Anomalies in Choice Experiments

This paper investigates whether responses to choice experiments (CEs) are subject to sequencing anomalies. While previous research has focussed on the possibility that such anomalies relate to position in the sequence of choice tasks, our research reveals that the particular sequence of tasks matters. Using a novel experimental design that allows us to test our hypotheses using robust nonparametric statistics, we observe sequencing anomalies in CE data similar to those recorded in the dichotomous choice contingent valuation literature. Those sequencing effects operate in both price and commodity dimensions and are observed to compound over a series of choice tasks. Our findings cast serious doubt on the current practice of asking each respondent to undertake several choice tasks in a CE whilst treating each response as an independent observation on that individual’s preferences.Choice experiments; sequencing anomalies; ordering effects; dichotomous choice contingent valuation; non-parametric testing.

Explosion of smoothness for conjugacies between multimodal maps

Let $f$ and $g$ be smooth multimodal maps with no periodic attractors and no neutral points. If a topological conjugacy $h$ between $f$ and $g$ is $C^{1}$ at a point in the nearby expanding set of $f$, then $h$ is a smooth diffeomorphism in the basin of attraction of a renormalization interval of $f$. In particular, if $f:I \to I$ and $g:J \to J$ are $C^r$ unimodal maps and $h$ is $C^{1}$ at a boundary of $I$ then $h$ is $C^r$ in $I$.Comment: 22 page

Trump, a Nationalist and a Populist Leader

In November 2016 against most expectations even among some Republican Party s members and despite his lack of political experience as he had never held any public office Donald Trump won the presidential election in the USA through a campaign conducted against the political elite During the campaign he presented himself as an outsider as someone who would upend the corrupt political elite installed in Washington and that had no real touch with the citizens An elite that was fuelled by money and often forgot the national interests Trump was right when he believed that voters were expected to show their dissatisfaction at the polls This essay reflects on the reasons underlying his victory and aims at proving that nationalism and populism were among them It also tries to demonstrate that nationalism and populism are still present in Trump s policies An unorthodox President who till the moment is merely following through on his campaign promises and rules over the Un-united States of Americ

Populism in Latin America and in the European Union: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

Populism is usually seen in an ambivalent perspective as it is conceived both as a threat for the representative democracy and as an opportunity for the renewal of the democratic institutions This essay intends to show the evolution of the populist phenomenon in Latin America since its initial phase in the 30s of the 20th century until the neo-populist or even postpopulist conjuncture and the populist dynamics occurring in the European Union It will be a comparative study because a comparison helps to understand one reality vis-a-vis another through similarities and differences The interrogation in the title points to the starting point of this research is there continuity or influence between the populist realities in the two continental block