82 research outputs found

    Implicit Guarantees and Risk Taking: Evidence from Money Market Funds

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    A firm's termination generates bankruptcy costs. This may create incentives for a firm's owner to bail out a firm in bankruptcy and to curb the firm's risk taking outside bankruptcy. We analyze the role of such implicit guarantees in the context of financial institutions that sponsor money market mutual funds. Our identification strategy exploits a large, exogenous expansion in risk-taking opportunities of money market funds during the period of August 2007 to August 2008. We find that a fund's response to the expansion depends on its sponsor's ability to provide implicit guarantees: Funds sponsored by financial institutions with higher equity take on less risk than those sponsored by financial institutions with lower equity. Moreover, fund sponsors with higher equity are more likely to provide financial support to their funds during a market-wide run in September 2008. The difference in risk taking disappears once implicit guarantees by fund sponsors are replaced with an explicit government guarantee. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit guarantees may reduce, rather than increase, risk taking

    Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data

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    We estimate the elasticity of exports to credit using matched customs and firm-level bank credit data from Peru. To account for non-credit determinants of exports, we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from banks differentially affected by capital-flow reversals during the 2008 financial crisis. We find that credit shocks affect the intensive margin of exports, but have no significant impact on entry or exit of firms to new product and destination markets. Our results suggest that credit shortages reduce exports through raising the variable cost of production, rather than the cost of financing sunk entry investments.

    Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data

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    This paper presents evidence on the effect of credit supply shocks on exports. Capital flow reversals in Peru during the 2008 financial crisis induced a decline in the supply of credit by domestic banks with high share of foreign-currency denominated liabilities. We use this variation to estimate the elasticity of exports to bank credit. We use matched customs and firm-level bank credit data to control for non-credit related factors that may also affect the level of exports: we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from different banks. Exports react strongly to changes in the supply of credit in the intensive margin, irrespectively of the firms' export volume. In the extensive margin, the negative credit supply shock increases the probability of exiting a product-destination export market, but does not significantly affect the number of firms entering an export market. The magnitude of the respective elasticities, as well as their heterogeneity across firm and export flow observable characteristics, are estimated.

    Implicit Guarantees and Risk Taking: Evidence from Money Market Funds

    Get PDF
    A firm's termination generates bankruptcy costs. This may create incentives for a firm's owner to bail out a firm in bankruptcy and to curb the firm's risk taking outside bankruptcy. We analyze the role of such implicit guarantees in the context of financial institutions that sponsor money market mutual funds. Our identification strategy exploits a large, exogenous expansion in risk-taking opportunities of money market funds during the period of August 2007 to August 2008. We find that a fund's response to the expansion depends on its sponsor's ability to provide implicit guarantees: Funds sponsored by financial institutions with higher equity take on less risk than those sponsored by financial institutions with lower equity. Moreover, fund sponsors with higher equity are more likely to provide financial support to their funds during a market-wide run in September 2008. The difference in risk taking disappears once implicit guarantees by fund sponsors are replaced with an explicit government guarantee. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit guarantees may reduce, rather than increase, risk taking.

    Informational Rents, Macroeconomic Rents, and Efficient Bailouts

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    We analyze government interventions to alleviate debt overhang among banks. Interventions generate two types of rents. Informational rents arise from opportunistic participation based on private information while macroeconomic rents arise from free riding. Minimizing informational rents is a security design problem and we show that warrants and preferred stocks are the optimal instruments. Minimizing macroeconomic rents requires the government to condition implementation on sufficient participation. Informational rents always impose a cost, but if macroeconomic rents are large, efficient recapitalizations can be profitable.

    When Safe Proved Risky: Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

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    Commercial paper is one of the largest money market instruments and has long been viewed as a safe haven for investors seeking low risk. However, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the commercial paper market experienced twice the modern-day equivalent of a bank run with investors unwilling to refinance maturing commercial paper. We analyze the supply of and demand for commercial paper and show that, in contrast to previous turbulent episodes, the crisis centered on commercial paper issued by, or guaranteed by, financial institutions. We describe the importance of Federal Reserve’s interventions in restoring stability of the market. Finally, we propose three possible explanations for the sharp decline of the commercial paper market: substitution to alternative sources of financing by commercial paper issuers, adverse selection, and institutional constraints among money market funds.

    Specialization in bank lending: evidence from exporting firms

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    We develop a novel approach for measuring bank specialization using granular data on borrower activities and apply it to Peruvian exporters and their banks. We find that borrowers seek credit from banks that specialize in their export destinations,both when expanding exports and when exporting to new countries. Firms experiencing country-specific export demand shocks adjust borrowing disproportionately from specialized banks. Specialized bank credit supply shocks affect exports disproportionately to countries of specialization. Our results demonstrate that firm credit demand is bank- and activity-specific, which reduces banking competition and affects the transmission and amplification of shocks through the banking secto

    Financial Globalization and the Transmission of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market

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    This paper analyzes whether equity holdings of international lenders affect the transmission of credit supply shocks from developed countries to emerging markets. I exploit the 1998 Russian debt default as an exogenous credit supply shock to international lenders and trace out the impact on bank lending in Peru. I find that after the shock international lenders with equity holdings in Peruvian banks increased financing to banks in Peru, while international lenders without equity holdings reduced financing to banks in Peru. This effect could be driven either by differential credit supply from international lenders or by heterogeneity in credit demand across banks. I control for credit demand by examining firms that have loans from both banks with international equity holders and banks without international equity holders and find evidence for the credit supply explanation. The change in credit supply has real effects: I find a lower bankruptcy rate among firms borrowing from banks with international equity holders than among firms borrowing from banks without international equity holders. These results suggest that equity holdings of international lenders mitigate the transmission of credit supply shocks to emerging markets

    Specialization in bank lending: evidence from exporting firms

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    We develop an empirical approach for identifying specialization in bank lending using granular data on borrower activities. We illustrate the approach by characterizing bank specialization by export market, combining bank, loan, and export data for all firms in Peru. We find that all banks specialize in at least one export market, that specialization affects a firm’s choice of new lenders and how to finance exports, and that credit supply shocks disproportionately affect a firm’s exports to markets where the lender specializes in. Thus, bank market-specific specialization makes credit difficult to substitute, with consequences for competition in credit markets and the transmission of credit shocks to the econom
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