Risk response incorporating risk preferences in international construction projects

Purpose The objective of this research is to develop a decision method that can generate appropriate risk response strategies for international construction project managers (PMs) and allow these strategies to reflect their different risk preferences.  Design/methodology/approach The optimal model approach is adopted. A credibility-based fuzzy chance constrained programming (CFCCP) model is developed, which simultaneously minimizes the expected losses of risk events and total costs of risk response. To solve this multi-objective model, a fuzzy interactive solution method is used. Moreover, the model performance is demonstrated by a real international industrial plant project. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the model is conducted.  Findings The result of the sensitivity analysis indicates that PMs with a greater risk aversion can lead to a higher mitigation ratio of expected losses of risk events and a higher total cost of risk response.  Practical implications This research provides contractors with an effective decision-making model to develop a project risk response plan, and it will assist contractors to minimize risk losses and enhance the project performance in the international construction market.  Originality/value Previous studies overlook the risk preference, which is an important behavioral factor influencing decisions in risk response strategy selection. This research proposed a novel risk response strategy selection decision method that considers different attitudes toward risk among decision makers.</p

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Ferromagnetic skyrmion annihilation process by an optical vortex with OAM l = +4

Fabrication of Tunable, Stable, and Predictable Superhydrophobic Coatings on Foam Ceramic Materials

Superhydrophobic foam ceramic materials can be used as distillation column internals, and surface wettability has a remarkable influence on column trays. There are no existing methods for industrial fabrication of superhydrophobic surfaces on foam ceramic materials. This paper presents a facile method for fabricating stable superhydrophobic or hydrophobic coatings on the outside and inside of foam SiC materials with submicrometer silica particles, for dip-coating, and alkylchlorosilane, for surface reaction. Scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, dynamic light scattering methods, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy were employed to study the physical and chemical details. The contact angle of coatings can be tuned to 155°, 140°, 125°, and 95° by adapting coating times and particle size. Superhydrophobic surfaces presented excellent stability under various conditions. In addition, a theoretical prediction strategy by surface microscopic morphology and surface chemical composition based on the Cassie–Baxter model was also presented. Briefly, this paper presents the possibility for large-scale preparation of superhydrophobic coatings on foam ceramic materials

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Optical vortex driven antiferromagnetic skyrmion motion

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Optical vortex driven skyrmion motion in a narrow annular plate

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Ferromagnetic skyrmion rotation driven by the optical vortex with OAM l = +5

Prognostic Value of Procalcitonin in Adult Patients with Sepsis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

<div><p>Procalcitonin (PCT) has been widely investigated for its prognostic value in septic patients. However, studies have produced conflicting results. The purpose of the present meta-analysis is to explore the diagnostic accuracy of a single PCT concentration and PCT non-clearance in predicting all-cause sepsis mortality. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and the Cochrane Library. Articles written in English were included. A 2 × 2 contingency table was constructed based on all-cause mortality and PCT level or PCT non-clearance in septic patients. Two authors independently evaluated study eligibility and extracted data. The diagnostic value of PCT in predicting prognosis was determined using a bivariate meta-analysis model. We used the Q-test and <i>I</i>² index to test heterogeneity. Twenty-three studies with 3,994 patients were included. An elevated PCT level was associated with a higher risk of death. The pooled relative risk (RR) was 2.60 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.05–3.30) using a random-effects model (<i>I</i>² = 63.5%). The overall area under the summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curve was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73–0.80), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67–0.82) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52–0.74), respectively. There was significant evidence of heterogeneity for the PCT testing time (<i>P</i> = 0.020). Initial PCT values were of limited prognostic value in patients with sepsis. PCT non-clearance was a prognostic factor of death in patients with sepsis. The pooled RR was 3.05 (95% CI, 2.35–3.95) using a fixed-effects model (<i>I</i>² = 37.9%). The overall area under the SROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.83), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58–0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.55–0.90), respectively. Elevated PCT concentrations and PCT non-clearance are strongly associated with all-cause mortality in septic patients. Further studies are needed to define the optimal cut-off point and the optimal definition of PCT non-clearance for accurate risk assessment.</p></div

Subgroup analysis.

<p>PCT = procalcitonin; ICU = intensive care unit; ED = emergency department; SEN = sensitivity; SPE = specificity; DOR = diagnostic odds ratio; PLR = positive likelihood ratio; NLR = negative likelihood ratio; AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval.</p><p>Subgroup analysis.</p

Forest plot of procalcitonin concentration to predict mortality in sepsis.

<p>The overall pooled RR was 2.60 (95% CI, 2.05–3.30).</p

Characteristics of studies associating PCT non-clearance with mortality.

<p>PCT = procalcitonin; ICU = intensive care unit; SICU = surgical intensive care unit; ED = emergency department; HW = hospital ward; PR = prospective recruitment; CR = consecutive recruitment; RR = retrospective recruitment; RCT = random control trial; MPR = multiple-center prospective recruitment; MRCT = multiple-center random control trial; SEN = sensitivity; SPE = specificity; CI = confidence interval.</p><p>Characteristics of studies associating PCT non-clearance with mortality.</p