Enhancing the Behaviorial Fidelity of Synthetic Entities with Human Behavior Models

Human-behavior models (HBMs) and artificial intelligence systems are called on to fill a wide variety of roles in military simulations. Each of the off the shelf human behavior models available today focuses on a specific area of human cognition and behavior. While this makes these HBMs very effective in specific roles, none are single-handedly capable of supporting the full range of roles necessary in an urban military scenario involving asymmetric opponents and potentially hostile civilians. The research presented here explores the integration of three separate human behavior models to support three different roles for synthetic participants in a single simulated scenario. The Soar architecture, focusing on knowledge-based, goal-directed behavior, supports a fire team of U.S. Army Rangers. PMFServ, focusing on a physiologically/stress constrained model of decision-making based on emotional utility, supports civilians that may become hostile. Finally, AI.Implant, focusing on individual and crowd navigation, supports a small group of opposing militia. Due to the autonomy and wide range of behavior supported by the three human behavior models, the scenario is more flexible and dynamic than many military simulations and commercial computer games

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Light disturbance with multifocal contact lens and monovision for presbyopia

Dysphotopsia affects a significant number of patients, particularly after visual correction with multifocal optical designs. Purpose Evaluate light distortion (LD) in two modalities of contact lens (CL) wear: multifocal (MF) and monofocal (MV). Methods This was a randomized, double-masked, crossover study involving 20 presbyopic patients. Patients were randomized first into either MF or MV for 15 days of use with a 1 week wash-out period between each lens type. The LD was evaluated with the Light Distortion Analyzer (LDA, University of Minho) under monocular and binocular conditions. The light distortion index (LDI, %), among other parameters were analyzed. Subjective quality of vision was assessed with the Quality of Vision (QoV). Results The LD showed an increase in all parameters in both CL modalities being significant for MV in the non-dominant eye (p < 0.030, for all LD parameters). For the MF, there was also a significant increase in LDI (p = 0.016) and in BFCrad (p = 0.022) in the non-dominant eye. After 15 days of MF lens wear, there was a significant decrease in all LD parameters (p < 0.002) in the dominant eye. Binocularly, a significant improvement from 1 to 15 days was observed for LDI (p = 0.009) and BFCrad (p = 0.0013) with MF. The QoV questionnaire showed no significant changes with neither CL. Conclusions. Adaptation to light disturbances induced by MF CL is more effective compared to MV. Practitioners will have greater success if they prepare their patients for the adaptation required as their vision will get better and have less of an issue with light disturbanceThis study has been funded in part by an individual research grant (FCT −SFRH/BPD/92365/2013 to Fernandes, P) and projects PTDC/SAU-BEB/098392/2008 and PTDC/SAU-BEB/098391/2008 funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the European Social Fund and by FEDER through the COMPETE Program and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) in the framework of the Strategic Project UID/FIS/04650/2013info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The lives and deaths of positrons in the interstellar medium

We reexamine in detail the various processes undergone by positrons in the ISM from their birth to their annihilation using the most recent results of positron interaction cross sections with H, H2 and He. The positrons' lives are divided into two phases: the 'in-flight' phase and the thermal phase. The first phase is treated with a Monte Carlo simulation that allows us to determine the fraction of positrons that form positronium and annihilate as well as the characteristics of the annihilation emission as a function of the medium conditions. The second phase is treated with a binary reaction rate approach, with cross sections adopted from experimental measurement or theoretical calculations. An extensive search and update of the knowledge of positron processes was thus undertaken. New reaction rates and line widths have been obtained. We investigate the treatment of the complicated interactions between positrons and interstellar dust grains. New reaction rates and widths of the line resulting from the annihilation inside and outside of the grain have been obtained. The final results of our calculations showed that dust is only important in the hot phase of the ISM, where it dominates all other processes. Combining the new calculations, we have constructed annihilation spectra for each phase of the ISM, considering various grain contents, as well as an overall combined spectrum for the ISM as a whole.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures. accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

C3 Glomerulopathy and related disorders in children

Background and objectives: Membranoproliferative Glomerulonephritis (MPGN) and C3 Glomerulopathy are rare and overlapping disorders associated with dysregulation of the alternative complement pathway. Specific aetiological data for paediatric MPGN/C3 glomerulopathy are lacking, and outcome data are based upon retrospective studies without aetiological data. Design, setting, participants, and measurements: Eighty prevalent pediatric patients with MPGN/C3 glomerulopathy underwent detailed phenotyping and long-term follow-up within the National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR). Risk factors for kidney survival were determined using COX proportional hazards model. Kidney and transplant graft survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Central histology review determined 39 C3 glomerulopathy, 31 immune-complex MPGN and 10 immune-complex glomerulonephritis (GN) cases. Patients were aged 2-15 (median 9 (IQR 7-11) years. Median complement C3 and C4 levels were 0.31g/L and 0.14g/L respectively; acquired (anti-complement autoantibodies) or genetic alternative pathway abnormalities were detected in 46% and 9% patients respectively, across all groups including immune-complex GN. Median follow-up was 5.18 (IQR 2.13-8.08) years. Eleven patients (14%) progressed to kidney failure with 9 transplants performed in 8 patients, 2 of which failed due to recurrent disease. Presence of >50% crescents on initial biopsy was the sole variable associated with kidney failure in multivariable analysis (Hazard Ratio 6.2, p = 0.045; 95% CI 1.05 to 36.6). Three distinct C3 glomerulopathy prognostic groups were identified according to presenting eGFR and >50% crescents on initial biopsy. Conclusions: Crescentic disease was a key risk factor associated with kidney failure in a national cohort of pediatric MPGN/C3 glomerulopathy and immune-complex GN. Presenting eGFR and crescentic disease help define prognostic groups in pediatric C3 glomerulopathy. Acquired abnormalities of the alternative pathway were commonly identified but not a risk factor for kidney failure

SLCO5A1 and synaptic assembly genes contribute to impulsivity in juvenile myoclonic epilepsy

Elevated impulsivity is a key component of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), bipolar disorder and juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME). We performed a genome-wide association, colocalization, polygenic risk score, and pathway analysis of impulsivity in JME (n = 381). Results were followed up with functional characterisation using a drosophila model. We identified genome-wide associated SNPs at 8q13.3 (P = 7.5 × 10−9) and 10p11.21 (P = 3.6 × 10−8). The 8q13.3 locus colocalizes with SLCO5A1 expression quantitative trait loci in cerebral cortex (P = 9.5 × 10−3). SLCO5A1 codes for an organic anion transporter and upregulates synapse assembly/organisation genes. Pathway analysis demonstrates 12.7-fold enrichment for presynaptic membrane assembly genes (P = 0.0005) and 14.3-fold enrichment for presynaptic organisation genes (P = 0.0005) including NLGN1 and PTPRD. RNAi knockdown of Oatp30B, the Drosophila polypeptide with the highest homology to SLCO5A1, causes over-reactive startling behaviour (P = 8.7 × 10−3) and increased seizure-like events (P = 6.8 × 10−7). Polygenic risk score for ADHD genetically correlates with impulsivity scores in JME (P = 1.60 × 10−3). SLCO5A1 loss-of-function represents an impulsivity and seizure mechanism. Synaptic assembly genes may inform the aetiology of impulsivity in health and disease

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

IMPACT-Global Hip Fracture Audit: Nosocomial infection, risk prediction and prognostication, minimum reporting standards and global collaborative audit. Lessons from an international multicentre study of 7,090 patients conducted in 14 nations during the COVID-19 pandemic

AIMS: This international study aimed to assess: 1) the prevalence of preoperative and postoperative COVID-19 among patients with hip fracture, 2) the effect on 30-day mortality, and 3) clinical factors associated with the infection and with mortality in COVID-19-positive patients. METHODS: A multicentre collaboration among 112 centres in 14 countries collected data on all patients presenting with a hip fracture between 1(st) March-31(st) May 2020. Demographics, residence, place of injury, presentation blood tests, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, management, ASA grade, length of stay, COVID-19 and 30-day mortality status were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 7090 patients were included, with a mean age of 82.2 (range 50-104) years and 4959 (70%) being female. Of 651 (9.2%) patients diagnosed with COVID-19, 225 (34.6%) were positive at presentation and 426 (65.4%) became positive postoperatively. Positive COVID-19 status was independently associated with male sex (odds ratio (OR) 1.38, p=0.001), residential care (OR 2.15, p<0.001), inpatient fall (OR 2.23, p=0.003), cancer (OR 0.63, p=0.009), ASA grade 4-5 (OR 1.59, p=0.008; OR 8.28, p<0.001), and longer admission (OR 1.06 for each increasing day, p<0.001). Patients with COVID-19 at any time had a significantly lower chance of 30-day survival versus those without COVID-19 (72.7% versus 92.6%, p<0.001). COVID-19 was independently associated with an increased 30-day mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) 2.83, p<0.001). Increasing age (HR 1.03, p=0.028), male sex (HR 2.35, p<0.001), renal disease (HR 1.53, p=0.017), and pulmonary disease (HR 1.45, p=0.039) were independently associated with a higher 30-day mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 when adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients during the first wave of the pandemic was 9%, and was independently associated with a three-fold increased 30-day mortality risk. Among COVID-19-positive patients, those who were older, male, with renal or pulmonary disease had a significantly higher mortality risk

Genetic determinants of risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension:international genome-wide association studies and meta-analysis

Background: Rare genetic variants cause pulmonary arterial hypertension, but the contribution of common genetic variation to disease risk and natural history is poorly characterised. We tested for genome-wide association for pulmonary arterial hypertension in large international cohorts and assessed the contribution of associated regions to outcomes. Methods: We did two separate genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a meta-analysis of pulmonary arterial hypertension. These GWAS used data from four international case-control studies across 11 744 individuals with European ancestry (including 2085 patients). One GWAS used genotypes from 5895 whole-genome sequences and the other GWAS used genotyping array data from an additional 5849 individuals. Cross-validation of loci reaching genome-wide significance was sought by meta-analysis. Conditional analysis corrected for the most significant variants at each locus was used to resolve signals for multiple associations. We functionally annotated associated variants and tested associations with duration of survival. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint in survival analyses. Findings: A locus near SOX17 (rs10103692, odds ratio 1·80 [95% CI 1·55–2·08], p=5·13 × 10 –15 ) and a second locus in HLA-DPA1 and HLA-DPB1 (collectively referred to as HLA-DPA1/DPB1 here; rs2856830, 1·56 [1·42–1·71], p=7·65 × 10 –20 ) within the class II MHC region were associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension. The SOX17 locus had two independent signals associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension (rs13266183, 1·36 [1·25–1·48], p=1·69 × 10 –12 ; and rs10103692). Functional and epigenomic data indicate that the risk variants near SOX17 alter gene regulation via an enhancer active in endothelial cells. Pulmonary arterial hypertension risk variants determined haplotype-specific enhancer activity, and CRISPR-mediated inhibition of the enhancer reduced SOX17 expression. The HLA-DPA1/DPB1 rs2856830 genotype was strongly associated with survival. Median survival from diagnosis in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension with the C/C homozygous genotype was double (13·50 years [95% CI 12·07 to &gt;13·50]) that of those with the T/T genotype (6·97 years [6·02–8·05]), despite similar baseline disease severity. Interpretation: This is the first study to report that common genetic variation at loci in an enhancer near SOX17 and in HLA-DPA1/DPB1 is associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Impairment of SOX17 function might be more common in pulmonary arterial hypertension than suggested by rare mutations in SOX17. Further studies are needed to confirm the association between HLA typing or rs2856830 genotyping and survival, and to determine whether HLA typing or rs2856830 genotyping improves risk stratification in clinical practice or trials. Funding: UK NIHR, BHF, UK MRC, Dinosaur Trust, NIH/NHLBI, ERS, EMBO, Wellcome Trust, EU, AHA, ACClinPharm, Netherlands CVRI, Dutch Heart Foundation, Dutch Federation of UMC, Netherlands OHRD and RNAS, German DFG, German BMBF, APH Paris, INSERM, Université Paris-Sud, and French ANR. </p