Family-led rehabilitation after stroke in India: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Most people with stroke in India have no access to organised rehabilitation services. The effectiveness of training family members to provide stroke rehabilitation is uncertain. Our primary objective was to determine whether family-led stroke rehabilitation, initiated in hospital and continued at home, would be superior to usual care, in a low resource setting. Methods: The Family-led Rehabilitation after Stroke in India (ATTEND) trial was a prospectively randomised open trial with blinded endpoints (PROBE) conducted across 14 hospitals in India. Patients (and their caregivers) were randomised to intervention or usual care by site Coordinators, using a secure web-based system, with minimisation by site and stroke severity. The intervention group received additional structured rehabilitation training, commenced in hospital and continued at home for up to 2 months. The primary outcome was death or dependency, defined by scores 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]) as assessed by blinded observers at six months. Secondary outcomes included any serious adverse event, hospital length of stay, activities of daily living, health-related quality of life, anxiety and depression, and caregiver strain. All analyses were intention to treat. Registration: Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI/2013/04/003557); Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12613000078752); and Universal Trial Number (U1111-1138-6707) Findings: A total of 1,250 patients were randomised (623 intervention and 627 control) between 13 January 2014 and 12 February 2016. At six months, 285 of 607 (47·0%) participants in the intervention group were dead or dependent compared to 287 of 605 (47·4%) in the control group (odds ratio 0·98; 95% confidence Interval 0·78 to 1·23, P = 0·87). No significant differences were observed in any of the secondary or safety outcomes. Interpretation: Family-led rehabilitation did not reduce death or dependency after stroke

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Family-led rehabilitation after stroke in India (ATTEND): a randomised controlled trial

Background: Most people with stroke in India have no access to organised rehabilitation services. The effectiveness of training family members to provide stroke rehabilitation is uncertain. Our primary objective was to determine whether family-led stroke rehabilitation, initiated in hospital and continued at home, would be superior to usual care, in a low resource setting. Methods: The Family-led Rehabilitation after Stroke in India (ATTEND) trial was a prospectively randomised open trial with blinded endpoints (PROBE) conducted across 14 hospitals in India. Patients (and their caregivers) were randomised to intervention or usual care by site Coordinators, using a secure web-based system, with minimisation by site and stroke severity. The intervention group received additional structured rehabilitation training, commenced in hospital and continued at home for up to 2 months. The primary outcome was death or dependency, defined by scores 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]) as assessed by blinded observers at six months. Secondary outcomes included any serious adverse event, hospital length of stay, activities of daily living, health-related quality of life, anxiety and depression, and caregiver strain. All analyses were intention to treat. Registration: Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI/2013/04/003557); Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12613000078752); and Universal Trial Number (U1111-1138-6707) Findings: A total of 1,250 patients were randomised (623 intervention and 627 control) between 13 January 2014 and 12 February 2016. At six months, 285 of 607 (47·0%) participants in the intervention group were dead or dependent compared to 287 of 605 (47·4%) in the control group (odds ratio 0·98; 95% confidence Interval 0·78 to 1·23, P = 0·87). No significant differences were observed in any of the secondary or safety outcomes. Interpretation: Family-led rehabilitation did not reduce death or dependency after stroke

Lipid-lowering pretreatment and outcome following intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischaemic stroke: a post hoc analysis of the Enhanced Control Of Hypertension And Thrombolysis Stroke Study trial

Background: Debate exists as to whether statin pretreatment confers an increased risk of 90- day mortality and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (sICH) in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT). We assessed the effects of undifferentiated lipid-lowering pretreatment on outcomes and interaction with low-dose versus standard-dose alteplase in a post hoc subgroup analysis of ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study). Methods: 3284 thrombolysis-eligible AIS patients (mean age 66.6 years; 38% women), with information on lipid-lowering pretreatment, were randomly assigned to low-dose (0.6mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9mg/kg) intravenous alteplase within 4.5 hours of symptom onset. 615 (19%) patients received statin or other lipid-lowering pretreatment. The primary clinical outcome was combined endpoint of death or disability (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores 2-6) at 90 days. Results: Compared with patients with no lipid-lowering pretreatment, those with lipidlowering pretreatment were significantly older, more likely to be non-Asian and more likely to have a medical history including vascular co-morbidity. After propensity analysis assessment and adjustment for important baseline variables at the time of randomisation, as well as imbalances in management during the first seven days of hospital admission, there were no significant differences in mortality (odds ratio (OR), 0.85; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.58-1.25, P=0.42), or in overall 90-day death and disability (OR 0.85, 95%CI 0.67-1.09, P=0.19), despite a significant decrease in sICH among those with lipid lowering pretreatment according to the ECASS-2 definition (OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.28-0.83, P=0.009). No differences in key efficacy or safety outcomes were seen in patients with and without lipid-lowering pretreatment between low- and standard-dose alteplase arms. 5 Conclusions: Lipid-lowering pretreatment is not associated with adverse outcome in AIS patients treated with intravenous alteplase, whether assessed by 90-day death and disability or death alone

Applicability of ENCHANTED trial results to current acute ischemic stroke patients eligible for intravenous thrombolysis in England and Wales: Comparison with the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme registry

© 2019 World Stroke Organization. Background: Randomized controlled trials provide high-level evidence, but the necessity to include selected patients may limit the generalisability of their results. Methods: Comparisons were made of baseline and outcome data between patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) recruited into the alteplase-dose arm of the international, multi-center, Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke study (ENCHANTED) in the United Kingdom (UK), and alteplase-treated AIS patients registered in the UK Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP) registry, over the study period June 2012 to October 2015. Results: There were 770 AIS patients (41.2% female; mean age 72 years) included in ENCHANTED at sites in England and Wales, which was 19.5% of alteplase-treated AIS patients registered in the SSNAP registry. Trial participants were significantly older, had lower baseline neurological severity, less likely Asian, and had more premorbid symptoms, hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Although ENCHANTED participants had higher rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage than those in SSNAP, there were no differences in onset-to-treatment time, levels of disability (assessed by the modified Rankin scale) at hospital discharge, and mortality over 90 days between groups. Conclusions: Despite the high level of participation, equipoise over the dose of alteplase among UK clinician investigators favored the inclusion of older, frailer, milder AIS patients in the ENCHANTED trial. Clinical trial registration: Clinical Trial Registration-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01422616

Risk of emergency hospital admission in children associated with mental disorders and alcohol misuse in the household: an electronic birth cohort study

Background: Mental disorders and alcohol misuse are common in families but their effects on the physical health of children are not known. We investigated the risk of emergency hospital admissions during childhood associated with living with an adult who has a mental health disorder, or who had an alcohol-related hospital admission. Methods: We did this cohort study in a total population electronic child cohort in Wales, UK, which includes all children who live in Wales or with a mother who is resident in Wales. We used Cox regression to model time to first emergency hospital admission during the first 14 years of life associated with living with an adult who has a mental health disorder, or who had an alcohol-related hospital admission. We adjusted our results for social deprivation and perinatal risk factors.Findings: We included data for 253 717 children with 1 015 614 child-years of follow-up. Living with an adult with a mental disorder was associated with an increased risk of emergency admission for all causes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·17, 95% CI 1·16–1·19), for injuries and external causes (1·14, 1·11–1·18), and childhood victimisation (1·55, 1·44–1·67). Children living with a household member who had an alcohol-related hospital admission had a significantly higher risk of emergency admissions for injuries and external causes (aHR 1·13, 95% CI 1·01–1 ·26) and victimisation (1·39, 1·00–1·94), but not for all-cause emergency admissions (1·01, 0·93–1·09).Interpretation: The increased risk of emergency admissions in children associated with mental disorders and alcohol misuse in the household supports the need for policy measures to provide support to families that are affected.Funding: Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, Alcohol Research UK, Public Health Wales

Decline in subarachnoid haemorrhage volumes associated with the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, decreased volumes of stroke admissions and mechanical thrombectomy were reported. The study\u27s objective was to examine whether subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm coiling interventions demonstrated similar declines. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective, observational study across 6 continents, 37 countries and 140 comprehensive stroke centres. Patients with the diagnosis of SAH, aneurysmal SAH, ruptured aneurysm coiling interventions and COVID-19 were identified by prospective aneurysm databases or by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes. The 3-month cumulative volume, monthly volumes for SAH hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm coiling procedures were compared for the period before (1 year and immediately before) and during the pandemic, defined as 1 March-31 May 2020. The prior 1-year control period (1 March-31 May 2019) was obtained to account for seasonal variation. FINDINGS: There was a significant decline in SAH hospitalisations, with 2044 admissions in the 3 months immediately before and 1585 admissions during the pandemic, representing a relative decline of 22.5% (95% CI -24.3% to -20.7%, p\u3c0.0001). Embolisation of ruptured aneurysms declined with 1170-1035 procedures, respectively, representing an 11.5% (95%CI -13.5% to -9.8%, p=0.002) relative drop. Subgroup analysis was noted for aneurysmal SAH hospitalisation decline from 834 to 626 hospitalisations, a 24.9% relative decline (95% CI -28.0% to -22.1%, p\u3c0.0001). A relative increase in ruptured aneurysm coiling was noted in low coiling volume hospitals of 41.1% (95% CI 32.3% to 50.6%, p=0.008) despite a decrease in SAH admissions in this tertile. INTERPRETATION: There was a relative decrease in the volume of SAH hospitalisations, aneurysmal SAH hospitalisations and ruptured aneurysm embolisations during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings in SAH are consistent with a decrease in other emergencies, such as stroke and myocardial infarction

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation