102 research outputs found

    Modeling and evaluating conditional quantile dynamics in VaR forecasts

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    We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage Ï„\tau, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models are evaluated via simulation, determining the merits of the asymmetric Mean Absolute Deviation as a loss function to rank forecast performances. The empirical application on the Fama-French 25 value-weighted portfolios with a moving forecast window shows substantial improvements in forecasting conditional quantiles by keeping the predicted quantile unchanged unless the empirical frequency of violations falls outside a data-driven interval around Ï„\tau.Comment: 37 pages, 5 figures, 8 table

    Open-aqueduct LOVA, LIAS, iNPH: a comparative clinical-radiological study exploring the "grey zone" between different forms of chronic adulthood hydrocephalus

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    The definition of chronic adult hydrocephalus encompasses different pathological entities with overlapping characteristics, including long-standing overt ventriculomegaly in adults (LOVA), late-onset idiopathic aqueductal stenosis (LIAS) and idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH). The aim of our study was to identify preoperative clinical and radiological features peculiar of these diseases providing some pathophysiology inferences on these forms of hydrocephalus

    Benefit-risk profile of cytoreductive drugs along with antiplatelet and antithrombotic therapy after transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke in myeloproliferative neoplasms

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    We analyzed 597 patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) who presented transient ischemic attacks (TIA, n = 270) or ischemic stroke (IS, n = 327). Treatment included aspirin, oral anticoagulants, and cytoreductive drugs. The composite incidence of recurrent TIA and IS, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and cardiovascular (CV) death was 4.21 and 19.2%, respectively at one and five years after the index event, an estimate unexpectedly lower than reported in the general population. Patients tended to replicate the first clinical manifestation (hazard ratio, HR: 2.41 and 4.41 for recurrent TIA and IS, respectively); additional factors for recurrent TIA were previous TIA (HR: 3.40) and microvascular disturbances (HR: 2.30); for recurrent IS arterial hypertension (HR: 4.24) and IS occurrence after MPN diagnosis (HR: 4.47). CV mortality was predicted by age over 60 years (HR: 3.98), an index IS (HR: 3.61), and the occurrence of index events after MPN diagnosis (HR: 2.62). Cytoreductive therapy was a strong protective factor (HR: 0.24). The rate of major bleeding was similar to the general population (0.90 per 100 patient-years). In conclusion, the long-term clinical outcome after TIA and IS in MPN appears even more favorable than in the general population, suggesting an advantageous benefit-risk profile of antithrombotic and cytoreductive treatment

    A Prognostic Model to Predict Ruxolitinib Discontinuation and Death in Patients with Myelofibrosis

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    Most patients with myelofibrosis (MF) discontinue ruxolitinib (JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor) in the first 5 years of therapy due to therapy failure. As the therapeutic possibilities of MF are expanding, it is critical to identify patients predisposed to early ruxolitinib monotherapy failure and worse outcomes. We investigated predictors of early ruxolitinib discontinuation and death on therapy in 889 patients included in the "RUX-MF" retrospective study. Overall, 172 patients were alive on ruxolitinib after ≥5 years (long-term ruxolitinib, LTR), 115 patients were alive but off ruxolitinib after ≥5 yrs (short-term RUX, STR), and 123 patients died while on ruxolitinib after <5 yrs (early death on ruxolitinib, EDR). The cumulative incidence of the blast phase was similar in LTR and STR patients (p = 0.08). Overall survival (OS) was significantly longer in LTR pts (p = 0.002). In multivariate analysis, PLT < 100 × 109/L, Hb < 10 g/dL, primary MF, absence of spleen response at 3 months and ruxolitinib starting dose <10 mg BID were associated with higher probability of STR. Assigning one point to each significant variable, a prognostic model for STR (STR-PM) was built, and three groups were identified: low (score 0-1), intermediate (score 2), and high risk (score ≥ 3). The STR-PM may identify patients at higher risk of failure with ruxolitinib monotherapy who should be considered for alternative frontline strategies

    Predictors of Response to Hydroxyurea and Switch to Ruxolitinib in HU-Resistant Polycythaemia VERA Patients: A Real-World PV-NET Study

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    In polycythemia vera (PV), the prognostic relevance of an ELN-defined complete response (CR) to hydroxyurea (HU), the predictors of response, and patients' triggers for switching to ruxolitinib are uncertain. In a real-world analysis, we evaluated the predictors of response, their impact on the clinical outcomes of CR to HU, and the correlations between partial or no response (PR/NR) and a patient switching to ruxolitinib. Among 563 PV patients receiving HU for ≥12 months, 166 (29.5%) achieved CR, 264 achieved PR, and 133 achieved NR. In a multivariate analysis, the absence of splenomegaly (p = 0.03), pruritus (p = 0.002), and a median HU dose of ≥1 g/day (p < 0.001) remained associated with CR. Adverse events were more frequent with a median HU dose of ≥1 g/day. Overall, 283 PR/NR patients (71.3%) continued HU, and 114 switched to ruxolitinib. In the 449 patients receiving only HU, rates of thrombosis, hemorrhages, progression, and overall survival were comparable among the CR, PR, and NR groups. Many PV patients received underdosed HU, leading to lower CR and toxicity rates. In addition, many patients continued HU despite a PR/NR; however, splenomegaly and other symptoms were the main drivers of an early switch. Better HU management, standardization of the criteria for and timing of responses to HU, and adequate intervention in poor responders should be advised
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