EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MODELS: A CRITICAL REVIEW AND NEW AGENDA FOR FUTURE DIRECTION

This paper suggests a new agenda for constructing early warning models (EWMs) to enhance their effectiveness in predicting financial crises. The central argument of the new agenda aims to eradicate the weaknesses of existing EWMs, since their failure to predict the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 demonstrates the need to improve their efficiency. We document the history of EWMs and propose a new agenda as follows: 1) the accurate measurement of a financial crisis, 2) implementation of a fourthgeneration crisis model to capture the dynamic nature of the financial crisis, and 3) the inclusion of interconnectedness/contagion variables as explanatory variables for the financial crisis.This paper suggests a new agenda for constructing early warning models (EWMs) to enhance their effectiveness in predicting financial crises. The central argument of the new agenda aims to eradicate the weaknesses of existing EWMs, since their failure to predict the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 demonstrates the need to improve their efficiency. We document the history of EWMs and propose a new agenda as follows: 1) the accurate measurement of a financial crisis, 2) implementation of a fourthgeneration crisis model to capture the dynamic nature of the financial crisis, and 3) the inclusion of interconnectedness/contagion variables as explanatory variables for the financial crisis

The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey

Through a survey of the literature on the economics of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, this study explores the effects of the pandemic and proposes potential policy directions to mitigate its effects. Our survey reveals that adverse economic effects have been observed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in addition to fatalities. Furthermore, the survey indicates the need for greater coordination at national and international levels. This study concludes by suggesting coordination among monetary, macroprudential, and fiscal policies (trio) to mitigate the adverse economic effects of COVID-19. Finally, this study explores potential directions for future research

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth?

This chapter examines the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Central Asian countries. Using quarterly data from 1990 to 2018 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Approach to cointegration, the study finds: 1) there is a robust long-run relationship that runs from infrastructure investment to economic growth in the case of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan; 2) in the case of the Kyrgyz Republic, economic growth drives infrastructure investment; 3) there is a bi-directional relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Uzbekistan; and 4) in the short run, infrastructure investment leads to a reduction in economic growth in Tajikistan

A Survey of Literature on Measurement of Financial Integration: Need, Challenges, and Classification

Through a survey of literature in the measurement of financial integration (FI), this study explores the historical footprints on the measurement of financial integration, key issues, and challenges. We document the evolution of measurements during 1980–2018 and extend the measurement classification with specific criteria associated with the measurements. Furthermore, this study identifies the strength and weaknesses of existing measurements and highlights the need and criteria for choosing an appropriate measure. Finally, our study concludes that as one of the pillars of globalization, appropriate quantification of FI is a major challenge and crucial for monitoring the level and effect of FI for an economy

Role of Sulphur Fertilization in Legume Crops: A Comprehensive Review

Sulphur (S) is an indispensable macronutrient for plant growth and development, and its role in enhancing the productivity and quality of legume crops has garnered increased attention in agricultural research. This comprehensive review explores the multifaceted significance of sulphur fertilization in legumes, shedding light on the pivotal role it plays in optimizing crop performance. From its involvement in amino acid synthesis and protein formation to its impact on chlorophyll production and antioxidant defense mechanisms, sulphur is a key player in the intricate web of plant metabolic processes. The review delves into the intricate molecular mechanisms that underlie sulphur assimilation and its impact on various physiological functions in legumes. Additionally, it investigates the influence of sulphur on legume crop quality parameters, emphasizing its effect on protein content and amino acid profiles, as well as its role in improving crop resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses. The symbiotic relationships between legumes and nitrogen-fixing rhizobia further complicate the sulphur scenario, making it imperative to dissect the dynamic interplay between these crucial elements. With a backdrop of changing agricultural practices, environmental concerns, and the increasing demand for sustainable food production, this review addresses the challenges and opportunities in sulphur fertilization. It also highlights the need for precise nutrient management strategies to harness the full potential of sulphur in legume crop production. In conclusion, this comprehensive review serves as a valuable resource for researchers, agronomists, and policymakers, offering insights into the pivotal role of sulphur fertilization in enhancing the productivity, quality, and sustainability of legume crops in an ever-evolving agricultural landscape