L’ analyse empirique de l’impact de la politique monétaire sur la bourse des valeurs au Maroc : Un essai à l’aide d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif (VAR)

The global importance of central banks in navigating financial crises and economic fluctuations has been underscored (Lorenzoni, 2015). The pivotal role of the institution overseeing monetary policy in shaping both the term structure of interest rates and stock market dynamics is evident. Economic theory posits a direct link between money and prices, with an increase in the money supply leading to proportional inflation, and vice versa (Dées, 2019). Keynesian perspectives, emphasizing nominal rigidities and long-term money neutrality, assert that a rising money supply influences the real economy through interest rate reduction. This dual impact of money on economic agents remains underexplored quantitatively in the Moroccan context. This study aims to fill this gap by introducing a novel quantitative framework. Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with simultaneous equations, the research assesses the short and long-term causality between central bank decisions, expressed as cyclical variables, and the stock market's performance. The analysis aims to elucidate the directional impact of monetary policy on asset returns and prices in the Moroccan context

Evaluation de l'impact de la politique monétaire sur la volatilité des cours boursiers : Réexamen de la relation sous-jacente à court et à long terme

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility in Morocco. The study is based on the analysis of monthly data covering the period from 2002 to 2020, collected from the Moroccan Central Bank (BAM) and the Casablanca Stock Exchange (BVC). The objective is to understand how the decisions of the Central Bank influence financial markets and the national economy. The analysis relies on advanced econometric methods, including tests for determining the optimal lag and cointegration. The results reveal that the monetary policy conducted by BAM has a significant impact on long-term stock market volatility. Variations in interbank interest rates, M3 money supply, private sector credit (CSP), and inflation rate (INF) are associated with sustained fluctuations in the MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange. The study also identifies the transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy influences stock markets. Changes in interbank interest rates directly impact business investment decisions, affecting profitability and stock prices. Additionally, M3 money supply and private sector credit CSP act as indirect channels by influencing economic activity and investor demand for equities.   Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stock Price Volatility, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). JEL Classification : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Paper type: Empirical research.Ce papier se penche sur l'impact de la politique monétaire sur la volatilité des cours boursiers au Maroc. L'étude repose sur l'analyse de données mensuelles couvrant la période de 2002 à 2020, collectées auprès de la Banque centrale marocaine (BAM) et de la Bourse des valeurs de Casablanca (BVC). L'objectif est de comprendre comment les décisions de la Banque centrale influencent les marchés financiers et l'économie nationale. L'analyse repose sur des méthodes économétriques avancées, notamment les tests de détermination du retard optimal et de cointégration. Les résultats révèlent que la politique monétaire exercée par la BAM a un impact significatif sur la volatilité des cours boursiers à long terme. Les variations des taux d'intérêt interbancaires, de la masse monétaire M3, du crédit au secteur privé (CSP) et du taux d'inflation (INF) sont associées à des fluctuations durables de l'indice MASI de la Bourse de Casablanca. L'étude identifie également les mécanismes de transmission par lesquels la politique monétaire influence les marchés boursiers. Les variations des taux d'intérêt interbancaires ont un impact direct sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises, ce qui influe sur la rentabilité et les cours boursiers. De plus, la masse monétaire M3 et le crédit au secteur privé CSP agissent comme des canaux indirects en influençant l'activité économique et la demande d'investisseurs en actions   Mots clés : Politique monétaire, volatilité des prix boursiers, VECM. Classification JEL : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Type de l’article : Recherche appliquée

Evaluation de l'impact de la politique monétaire sur la volatilité des cours boursiers : Réexamen de la relation sous-jacente à court et à long terme

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on stock market volatility in Morocco. The study is based on the analysis of monthly data covering the period from 2002 to 2020, collected from the Moroccan Central Bank (BAM) and the Casablanca Stock Exchange (BVC). The objective is to understand how the decisions of the Central Bank influence financial markets and the national economy. The analysis relies on advanced econometric methods, including tests for determining the optimal lag and cointegration. The results reveal that the monetary policy conducted by BAM has a significant impact on long-term stock market volatility. Variations in interbank interest rates, M3 money supply, private sector credit (CSP), and inflation rate (INF) are associated with sustained fluctuations in the MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange. The study also identifies the transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy influences stock markets. Changes in interbank interest rates directly impact business investment decisions, affecting profitability and stock prices. Additionally, M3 money supply and private sector credit CSP act as indirect channels by influencing economic activity and investor demand for equities.   Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stock Price Volatility, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). JEL Classification : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Paper type: Empirical research.Ce papier se penche sur l'impact de la politique monétaire sur la volatilité des cours boursiers au Maroc. L'étude repose sur l'analyse de données mensuelles couvrant la période de 2002 à 2020, collectées auprès de la Banque centrale marocaine (BAM) et de la Bourse des valeurs de Casablanca (BVC). L'objectif est de comprendre comment les décisions de la Banque centrale influencent les marchés financiers et l'économie nationale. L'analyse repose sur des méthodes économétriques avancées, notamment les tests de détermination du retard optimal et de cointégration. Les résultats révèlent que la politique monétaire exercée par la BAM a un impact significatif sur la volatilité des cours boursiers à long terme. Les variations des taux d'intérêt interbancaires, de la masse monétaire M3, du crédit au secteur privé (CSP) et du taux d'inflation (INF) sont associées à des fluctuations durables de l'indice MASI de la Bourse de Casablanca. L'étude identifie également les mécanismes de transmission par lesquels la politique monétaire influence les marchés boursiers. Les variations des taux d'intérêt interbancaires ont un impact direct sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises, ce qui influe sur la rentabilité et les cours boursiers. De plus, la masse monétaire M3 et le crédit au secteur privé CSP agissent comme des canaux indirects en influençant l'activité économique et la demande d'investisseurs en actions   Mots clés : Politique monétaire, volatilité des prix boursiers, VECM. Classification JEL : C58, E32, E42, E44, E47 Type de l’article : Recherche appliquée

A Novel Strategic Caching and Availability Optimization for Wireless Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Communication Networks

The rowing complexity in the 5G technology has created a necessity for UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)-assisted cellular networks as base stations. This is helpful for a wider coverage with higher transmission rates as it addresses three critical issues, i.e. location, performance and bandwidth. Besides, the integration of caching into conventional UAV infrastructure has received significant attentions since it can bring contents and memory storage closer to a mobile device. In a dynamic resource caching for wireless mobile networks, drone’s settings contain important options for supporting a wide variety of applications and services, including the network access fee, quality of service (QoS) , number of cached contents, cache access fee and beaconing duration. A theoretic model based on game theory is developed to study the effect of competition among UAVs that have caching and sharing revenue model. Note that an optimal usage of UAV capabilities would thus lead to a cost-effective strategy for energy consumption and QoS requirements

Barremian intracontinental rift and Aptian Atlantic transgression in the northern boundary of the Central High Atlas (Morocco)

International audienceThe northern boundary of the Central High Atlas was affected by a transgression during the Aptian that reached the junction zone between the Middle and the High Atlas. In this sector (Naour-Aghbala) which corresponds to the presumed closure zone of this Aptian Atlantic marine trough, the sedimentary record reveals a strong dependence on the regional structural framework. The Barremian continental sedimentation is concentrated in an elongated W-E highly subsiding zone, limited to the south by the polyphase Aghbala-Afourer Fault Zone (AAFZ), which corresponds to the contact between the main Atlasic Belt and its northern boundary (Beni Mellal Atlas). The Aptian deposits preserve similar littoral marine characters from West to East without showing any confined facies, which could evoke the eastern limit of the gulf. On the other hand, towards the North, the Aptian layers rapidly change from marine to lagoonal then to continental facies. The paleogeographic boundary of the Aptian shoreline, oriented E-W, is locally controlled by the North El Ksiba Fault (NKF) in the North. The Aptian Atlantic transgression, closely linked to the narrow Barremian graben, shows a wide northward extension of the marine sedimentary area. The Barremian graben highlighted in the Aghbala-Naour area represents only a segment of a major east-west intracontinental rift that continued eastward with the more recent frontal thrust of the eastern Moroccan High Atlas. This faulted structure was the penetration axis of a double transgression: from the Tethys to the East and from the Atlantic Ocean to the West on the emerged Atlasic domain