Occupational Transitions: A Cohort Analysis Of Transitions Between Occupation Classes 1981 To 2006

This paper is limited to presenting an initial look at the New Zealand Linked Census. The intention here is limited to describing the NZ Linked Census, providing an example of how this new dataset can be used in the wider context of labour market themes, and promoting the dataset as a powerful tool for new and ground breaking longitudinal research

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments

Occupational Transitions: A Cohort Analysis Of Transitions Between Occupation Classes 1981 To 2006

This paper is limited to presenting an initial look at the New Zealand Linked Census. The intention here is limited to describing the NZ Linked Census, providing an example of how this new dataset can be used in the wider context of labour market themes, and promoting the dataset as a powerful tool for new and ground breaking longitudinal research

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments

Moving for Employment Reasons

While most models of population migration assume that members of the labour force migrate to enhance returns to their labour, major surveys in the USA (PSID and CPS), in the UK (BHPS) and Australia (HILDA) all show that only around 10 percent of all individuals who change residence are motivated primarily by employment reasons. Of those moving between local labour markets only about 30 percent say they are motivated by employment reasons. We explore this apparent paradox by drawing on evidence from the Dynamics of Motivation and Migration Survey (DMM), which recorded the reasons people of working age, changed their permanent residence in New Zealand over the two-year period 2005 and 2006. The need to solve the employment problem before moving means that reasons offered retrospectively for moving usually reflect a wish to adjust consumption even in the case of those moving between local labour markets. For most people of working age employment remains a necessary condition rather than sufficient reason for moving and this is why the pattern of net flows among local markets appear to support theories of migration change even though few people say they move for employment reasons

“Becoming someone”? Nepalesiske unge under uddannelse i Danmark

I de seneste år er der kommet mange unge nepalesiske studerende til Danmark. Nepalesernes tilværelse i Danmark afhænger af forbindelser til både familien i Nepal og deres værdifulde landområder, medfølgende ægtefæller, et uddannelsesprogram fra USA, og erhvervsarbejde i den danske servicebranche. Samtidig er de også et led i den danske stats stræben efter at promovere Danmark som et videnssamfund og en attraktiv international uddannelsesdestination. Alt dette skaber både muligheder og udfordringer for de unge nepalesere i Danmark.I de seneste år er der kommet mange unge nepalesiske studerende til Danmark. Nepalesernes tilværelse i Danmark afhænger af forbindelser til både familien i Nepal og deres værdifulde landområder, medfølgende ægtefæller, et uddannelsesprogram fra USA, og erhvervsarbejde i den danske servicebranche. Samtidig er de også et led i den danske stats stræben efter at promovere Danmark som et videnssamfund og en attraktiv international uddannelsesdestination. Alt dette skaber både muligheder og udfordringer for de unge nepalesere i Danmark. &nbsp