7 research outputs found

    Propensity for individuals carrying pneumococcal serotypes in three serogroups (VT1, VT2 and NVT) among 16 age groups to develop disease.

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    <p>The ratios are obtained from the scenario using 0.5 as the competition parameter, C3, and the IPD cases adjusted using the point estimate of the adjustment for the increasing trend in such cases (shaded areas show the ratios estimated using the lower and upper boundaries of its 95% CIs).</p

    Flow diagram showing the relationship between different states representing carriage of different groups of pneumococcal serotypes in the models used.

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    <p>Flow diagram showing the relationship between different states representing carriage of different groups of pneumococcal serotypes in the models used.</p

    Flow diagram showing how vaccination status of individuals is tracked in the model, based on the number of doses received and waning of vaccine protection.

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    <p>Individuals who receive one dose while above the age of one year are fully protected. Those who receive their first dose under the age of one year are only partially protected. Those who receive 2 or more doses receive full protection. Those who lose vaccine protection move to the next less well protected group.</p

    Model projections of the long-term effects of either stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination or replacing PCV7 with PCV13 on April 2010 on the number of IPD cases caused by VT1, VT2, and NVT serotype groups in England and Wales over 35 years since the introduction of PCV7.

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    <p>C3 (representing the protective effect of carrying VT2 serotypes against infection with NVT) takes the values 0, 0.5, and 1 in different scenarios. Filled circles show results with C3 = 0.5 and the error bars represent results with C3 = 0 or 1. Scenarios are presented in terms of IPD data being adjusted by high, low and medium estimates for the secular trend in IPD prior to PCV7 introduction.</p

    Annual proportional changes in the number of overall IPD cases among age groups aged <2 and ≥65 from two PCV baseline years (epidemiological year 2005/06 for the PCV7 baseline and epidemiological year 2009/10 for the PCV13 baseline).

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    <p>Annual proportional changes in the number of overall IPD cases among age groups aged <2 and ≥65 from two PCV baseline years (epidemiological year 2005/06 for the PCV7 baseline and epidemiological year 2009/10 for the PCV13 baseline).</p

    Model estimates of the amount of prevented cases by introducing PCV13 compared to discontinuing PCV7.

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    <p>The analysis is shown for both the cumulative difference in cases between 2009/10 to 2029/30 and the difference 20 years after the change in policy (2029/30).</p

    Proportional changes in the number of overall IPD cases following either stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination or replacing PCV7 with PCV13 on April 2010.

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    <p>PCV7 is replaced with PCV13 six years after PCV7 introduction. C3 (representing the protective effect of carrying VT2 serotypes against infection with NVT) takes the values 0, 0.5, and 1 in different scenarios. Filled circles show results with C3 = 0.5 and the error bars represent results with C3 = 0 or 1. IPD data were adjusted based on the high, low and medium estimates for the secular trend in IPD prior to PCV7 introduction (corresponding to the upper and lower limits of the error bars as well as the points).</p
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