Representing moisture fluxes and phase changes in glacier debris cover using a reservoir approach

Due to the complexity of treating moisture in supraglacial debris, surface energy balance models to date have neglected moisture infiltration and phase changes in the debris layer. The latent heat flux (QL) is also often excluded due to the uncertainty in determining the surface vapour pressure. To quantify the importance of moisture on the surface energy and climatic mass balance (CMB) of debris-covered glaciers, we developed a simple reservoir parameterization for the debris ice and water content, as well as an estimation of the latent heat flux. The parameterization was incorporated into a CMB model adapted for debris-covered glaciers. We present the results of two point simulations, using both our new “moist” and the conventional “dry” approaches, on the Miage Glacier, Italy, during summer 2008 and fall 2011. The former year coincides with available in situ glaciological and meteorological measurements, including the first eddy-covariance measurements of the turbulent fluxes over supraglacial debris, while the latter contains two refreeze events that permit evaluation of the influence of phase changes. The simulations demonstrate a clear influence of moisture on the glacier energy and mass-balance dynamics. When water and ice are considered, heat transmission to the underlying glacier ice is lower, as the effective thermal diffusivity of the saturated debris layers is reduced by increases in both the density and the specific heat capacity of the layers. In combination with surface heat extraction by QL, subdebris ice melt is reduced by 3.1% in 2008 and by 7.0% in 2011 when moisture effects are included. However, the influence of the parameterization on the total accumulated mass balance varies seasonally. In summer 2008, mass loss due to surface vapour fluxes more than compensates for the reduction in ice melt, such that the total ablation increases by 4.0 %. Conversely, in fall 2011, the modulation of basal debris temperature by debris ice results in a decrease in total ablation of 2.1 %. Although the parameterization is a simplified representation of the moist physics of glacier debris, it is a novel attempt at including moisture in a numerical model of debris-covered glaciers and one that opens up additional avenues for future research

Implementation of a Continuing Education Module on Triage Practices for Pediatric Emergency Room Nurses

BACKGROUND: More than 35 million U.S. children visit the emergency department (ED) each year. Triage is the family’s first interaction with the healthcare team and a crucial component of care that directs the course of the ED visit. The use of standardized triage protocols, like the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) algorithm, is shown to improve overall patient health outcomes in the pediatric ED. For triage algorithms to be safe and effective, continuing education for pediatric ED nurses is important. LOCAL PROBLEM: Patients at a local pediatric emergency department are being inaccurately triaged - assigned a higher or lower acuity level than their condition warrants. This leads to patient decompensation while waiting to be seen by a provider, increased department wait times, and decreased family satisfaction. METHODS: The Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model for improvement was used to guide project development and implementation. Patient charts were audited using an EMR scoring tool developed by the project team reflecting anticipated resources, initial vital signs, and patient condition change during ED course. INTERVENTIONS: A continuing education module (CBL) on triage practices was developed and implemented. The module was open for all pediatric ED nurses to complete at the project site. Components of the CBL module included a review of the ESI algorithm, pediatric triage practices, department resources, stable and unstable vital signs, and patient case studies. RESULTS: Emergency department triage accuracy improved from 83.6% accuracy to 87.7% accuracy. This 4.1% increase demonstrates clinical significance of practice improvement. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a continuing education module on triage practices in the pediatric emergency department leads to improved triage accuracy among pediatric emergency room nurses. Regular implementation of a CBL may continue to improve triage accuracy and lead to decreased ED wait times and improved family satisfaction

Modelling melt beneath supraglacial debris : implications for the climatic response of debris-covered glaciers

Understanding how debris-covered glaciers respond to climate is necessary in order to evaluate future water resources and glacier flood hazard potential, and to make sense of the glacier chronology in mountain regions, In order achieve this, it is necessary to improve the current understanding of how surface debris affects glacier ablation rate, and to develop methods by which the ablation of debris-covered glaciers can be predicted under various climatic scenarios. This thesis develops a numerical surface energy balance model that uses simple meteorological data to calculate melt beneath a debris layer of given thickness and thermal characteristics. Field data from three contrasting sites demonstrate that the assumptions made within the model concerning the thermal properties of supraglacial debris are valid during most ablation conditions and that model performance is considerably better than previous models. Model results indicate that the effect of debris on melt rate is highly dependent on meteorological conditions. Under colder climates, thin debris can accelerate ice melt by extending the ablation period at both diurnal and seasonal scales. However, in milder mid- summer conditions, even a very thin debris cover inhibits melt rate compared to that of exposed ice. The new melt model is applied to produce the first quantified ablation gradients for debris- covered glaciers, and to model the evolution of ice surfaces under a debris layer of variable thickness. Modelled ablation gradients are qualitatively similar to hypothetical ones outlined previously, and quantitatively similar to those measured in the field. The ablation gradients are used to explore the factors affecting the response of debris-covered glaciers to climate change. Beneath a debris layer of variable thickness, the melt model produced ablation topography, as observed in the field, which underwent topographic inversion over time in response to debris redistribution. Debris thickness variability was found to cause calculated ablation rate to increase compared to that calculated using a mean debris thickness by one to two orders of magnitude, suggesting that melt calculations made on the basis of spatially averaged debris thickness may be inaccurate

Robust uncertainty assessment of the spatio-temporal transferability of glacier mass and energy balance models

Energy and mass-balance modelling of glaciers is a key tool for climate impact studies of future glacier behaviour. By incorporating many of the physical processes responsible for surface accumulation and ablation, they offer more insight than simpler statistical models and are believed to suffer less from problems of stationarity when applied under changing climate conditions. However, this view is challenged by the widespread use of parameterizations for some physical processes which introduces a statistical calibration step. We argue that the reported uncertainty in modelled mass balance (and associated energy flux components) are likely to be understated in modelling studies that do not use spatio-temporal cross-validation and use a single performance measure for model optimization. To demonstrate the importance of these principles, we present a rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty assessment workflow applied to a modelling study of two glaciers in the European Alps, extending classical best guess approaches. The procedure begins with a reduction of the model parameter space using a global sensitivity assessment that identifies the parameters to which the model responds most sensitively. We find that the model sensitivity to individual parameters varies considerably in space and time, indicating that a single stated model sensitivity value is unlikely to be realistic. The model is most sensitive to parameters related to snow albedo and vertical gradients of the meteorological forcing data. We then apply a Monte Carlo multi-objective optimization based on three performance measures: model bias and mean absolute deviation in the upper and lower glacier parts, with glaciological mass balance data measured at individual stake locations used as reference. This procedure generates an ensemble of optimal parameter solutions which are equally valid. The range of parameters associated with these ensemble members are used to estimate the cross-validated uncertainty of the model output and computed energy components. The parameter values for the optimal solutions vary widely, and considering longer calibration periods does not systematically result in better constrained parameter choices. The resulting mass balance uncertainties reach up to 1300 kg m−2, with the spatial and temporal transfer errors having the same order of magnitude. The uncertainty of surface energy flux components over the ensemble at the point scale reached up to 50 % of the computed flux. The largest absolute uncertainties originate from the short-wave radiation and the albedo parameterizations, followed by the turbulent fluxes. Our study highlights the need for due caution and realistic error quantification when applying such models to regional glacier modelling efforts, or for projections of glacier mass balance in climate settings that are substantially different from the conditions in which the model was optimized.publishedVersio

Threat analysis for more effective lion conservation

We use comparable 2005 and 2018 population data to assess threats driving the decline of lion Panthera leo populations, and review information on threats structured by problem tree and root cause analysis. We define 11 threats and rank their severity and prevalence. Two threats emerged as affecting both the number of lion populations and numbers within them: livestock depredation leading to retaliatory killing of lions, and bushmeat poaching leading to prey depletion. Our data do not allow determination of whether any specific threat drives declines faster than others. Of 20 local extirpations, most were associated with armed conflicts as a driver of proximate threats. We discuss the prevalence and severity of proximate threats and their drivers, to identify priorities for more effective conservation of lions, other carnivores and their prey

Steep ice – progress and future challenges in research on ice cliffs

Ice cliffs are features along ice sheet margins, along tropical mountain glaciers, at termini of mountain glaciers and on debris-covered glacier tongues, that have received scattered attention in literature. They cover small relative areas of glacier or margin surface respectively, but have been involved in two apparent anomalies. On the one hand, they have been identified as potential hotspots of extreme melt rates on debris-covered tongues contributing to their relatively rapid ablation, compared to the surrounding glacier surface. On the other hand, they appear where the ice margin is stable (or temporarily advancing) even under conditions of negative mass balance. In this manuscript, we recapitulate why ice cliffs remain interesting features to investigate and what we know about them so far. We conclude by suggesting to further investigate their genesis and variable morphology and their potential as windows into past climates and processes

Using structure-from-motion to create glacier DEMs and orthoimagery from historical terrestrial and oblique aerial imagery

Jordan R. Mertes acknowledges funding from Michigan Technological University and The Michigan Technological University 2016 Fall Finishing Fellowship. Lindsey Nicholson is supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) Grant V309-N26.Increased resolution and availability of remote sensing products, and advancements in small-scale aerial drone systems, allows observations of glacial changes at unprecedented levels of detail. Software developments, such as Structure from Motion (SfM), now allow users an easy and efficient method to generate 3D models and orthoimages from aerial or terrestrial datasets. While these advancements show promise for current and future glacier monitoring, many regions still suffer a lack of observations from earlier time periods. We report on the use of SfM to extract spatial information from various historic imagery sources. We focus on three geographic regions, the European Alps, High-Arctic Norway and the Nepal Himalaya. We used terrestrial field photos from 1896, high oblique aerial photos from 1936 and aerial handheld photos from 1978 to generate DEMs and orthophotos of the Rhone glacier, Brøggerhalvøya and the lower Khumbu glacier, respectively. Our analysis shows that applying SfM to historic imagery can generate high quality models using only ground control points. Limited camera/orientation information was largely reproduced using self-calibrated model data. Using these data, we calculated mean ground sampling distances across each site which demonstrates the high potential resolution of resulting models. Vertical errors for our models are ±5.4 m, ±5.2 m and ±3.3 m. Differencing shows similar patterns of thinning at lower Rhone (European Alps) and Brøggerhalvøya (Norway) glaciers, which have mean thinning rates of 0.31 m a-1 (1896-2010) to 0.86 m a-1 (1936-2010) respectively. On these clean ice glaciers thinning is highest in the terminus region and decreasing upglacier. In contrast to these glaciers, uneven topography, exposed ice-cliffs and debris cover on the Khumbu glacier create a highly variable spatial distribution of thinning. The mean thinning rate for the Khumbu study area was found to be 0.54±0.9 m a-1 (1978-2015).PostprintPeer reviewe

Seasonally stable temperature gradients through supraglacial debris in the Everest region of Nepal, Central Himalaya

Rock debris covers about 30% of glacier ablation areas in the Central Himalaya and modifies the impact of atmospheric conditions on mass balance. The thermal properties of supraglacial debris are diurnally variable but remain poorly constrained for monsoon-influenced glaciers over the timescale of the ablation season. We measured vertical debris profile temperatures at 12 sites on four glaciers in the Everest region with debris thickness ranging from 0.08–2.8 m. Typically, the length of the ice ablation season beneath supraglacial debris was 160 days (15 May to 22 October)—a month longer than the monsoon season. Debris temperature gradients were approximately linear (r2 > 0.83), measured as –40°C m–1 where debris was up to 0.1 m thick, –20°C m–1 for debris 0.1–0.5 m thick, and –4°C m–1 for debris greater than 0.5 m thick. Our results demonstrate that the influence of supraglacial debris on the temperature of the underlying ice surface, and therefore melt, is stable at a seasonal timescale and can be estimated from near-surface temperature. These results have the potential to greatly improve the representation of ablation in calculations of debris-covered glacier mass balance and projections of their response to climate change.Peer reviewe