59 research outputs found

    Determinants of Interest Spread in Pakistan

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    Interest spread of the Pakistans banking industry has been on the rise for the last two years. The increase in interest spread discourages savings and investments on the one hand, and raises concerns on the effectiveness of bank lending channel of monetary policy on the other. This study examines the determinants of interest spread in Pakistan using panel data of 29 banks. The results show that inelasticity of deposit supply is a major determinant of interest spread whereas industry concentration has no significant influence on interest spread. One reason for inelasticity of deposits supply to the banks is the absence of alternate options for the savers. The on-going merger wave in the banking industry will further limit the options for the savers. Given the adverse implications of banking mergers for a competitive environment, we argue that to maintain a reasonably competitive environment, merger proposals may be subjected to review by an antitrust authority with the central bank retaining the veto over merger approval.Banks, Determination of Interest Rates, mergers, Acquisitions

    Regional Economic Integration in South Asia: The Way Forward

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    regional Cooperation, Economic Integration, South Asia

    A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model of Pakistan’s Economy

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    In this study, an attempt has been made of develop a dynamic macroeconometric model of Pakistan’s economy to examine the behaviour of major macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, investment, government expenditure, money, interest rates, prices, exports, and imports. The model consists of 21 equations, of which 13 are behavioural and the rest are identities. The Engle-Granger two-step cointegration procedure is used to derive the long-run and short -run elasticities for the period 1972-2009. The test of significance of each estimated equation seems to validate the model. The estimated long-run parameters are used to perform simulation experiments to determine the model’s ability to track historical data and to assess the behaviour of the key macroeconomic variables in response to the changes in selected exogenous variables. The results indicate that the majority of macroeconomic variables follow an increasing trend over the period of simulation, 2009-2013.Macroeconometric Model; Pakistan Economy, Cointegration, Forecasting

    Determinants of Interest Spread in Pakistan

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    Interest spread of Pakistan s banking industry has been on the rise for the last two years. The increase in interest spread discourages savings and investments, on the one hand, and raises concerns about the effectiveness of the bank-lending channels of monetary policy, on the other. This study examines the determinants of interest spread in Pakistan using panel data of 29 banks. The results show that the share of interest-insensitive deposits in total bank deposits is a key determinant of interest spread, whereas industry concentration has no significant impact on interest spread. Furthermore, the ongoing merger wave in the banking industry will limit the options for the savers, with adverse implications for the interest spread. We argue that to maintain a reasonably competitive environment, merger proposals may be subjected to review by an anti-trust authority.Banks, Determination of Interest Rates, Mergers, Acquisitions

    Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan

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    Trade and growth theories generally predict a positive relationship between openness to international trade and economic growth. There are a number of channels through which openness is thought to influence economic growth. First, a liberal trade regime enhances efficiency through greater competition and improved resource allocation. Second, greater access to world markets allows economies to overcome size limitations and benefit from economies of scale. Third, imports of capital and intermediate goods can contribute to the growth process by enlarging the productive capacity of the economy. Fourth, trade can lead to productivity gains through international diffusion and adoption of new technologies. Empirical studies on the relationship between openness and economic growth have largely supported the view that openness has a favourable impact on economic growth. It is not surprising, then, that the proposition that more open economies tend to grow faster has gained wide acceptance in academic as well as policy circles. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between openness and economic growth in the context of Pakistan’s economy. Section 2 reviews the literature on openness and economic growth. Section 3 provides an overview of trade liberalisation in Pakistan. Data and methodology are described in Section 4, while Section 5 presents the empirical results. Section 6 concludes the discussion.
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