Constraining credences

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Linguistics and Philosophy, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-108).This dissertation is about ways in which our rational credences are constrained: by norms governing our opinions about counterfactuals, by the opinions of other agents, and by our own previous opinions. In Chapter 1, I discuss ordinary language judgments about sequences of counterfactuals, and then discuss intuitions about norms governing our credence in counterfactuals. I argue that in both cases, a good theory of our judgments calls for a static semantics on which counterfactuals have substantive truth conditions, such as the variably strict conditional semantic theories given in STALNAKER 1968 and LEWIS 1973a. In particular, I demonstrate that given plausible assumptions, norms governing our credences about objective chances entail intuitive norms governing our opinions about counterfactuals. I argue that my pragmatic accounts of our intuitions dominate semantic theories given by VON FINTEL 2001, GILLIES 2007, and EDGINGTON 2008. In Chapter 2, I state constraints on what credence constitutes a perfect compromise between agents who have different credences in a proposition. It is sometimes taken for granted that disagreeing agents achieve a perfect compromise by splitting the difference in their credences. In this chapter, I develop and defend an alternative strategy for perfect compromise, according to which agents perfectly compromise by coordinating on the credences that they collectively most prefer, given their purely epistemic values. In Chapter 3, I say how your past credences should constrain your present credences.(cont.) In particular, I develop a procedure for rationally updating your credences in de se propositions, or sets of centered worlds. I argue that in forming an updated credence distribution, you must first use information you recall from your previous self to form a hypothetical credence distribution, and then change this hypothetical distribution to reflect information you have genuinely learned as time has passed. In making this proposal precise, I argue that your recalling information from your previous self resembles a familiar process: agents' gaining information from each other through ordinary communication.by Sarah Moss.Ph.D

Subjunctive Credences and Semantic Humility

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100169/1/phpr550.pd

Kahoot! y Challenge, recursos online para las asignaturas de “Lengua española” y “Lengua inglesa” en los grados de Traducción y Comunicación Intercultural, Publicidad y Relaciones Públicas y Turismo

[Resumen] Blanca Riestra propone la utilización del Kahoot! para fomentar la motivación en las asignaturas de “Lengua española I” en el primer curso del grado de Traducción y Comunicación Intercultural y “Lengua y Comunicación” en primero curso del grado de Publicidad y Relaciones públicas. Mediante esta herramienta de gamificación se establece un método pedagógico novedoso que complementa con éxito la retención de conceptos teóricos arduos como son todos aquellos relacionados con la lingüística, incrementando el interés del alumnado. En este mismo espíritu de gamificación e introducción de las TIC en las aulas, Sarah Moss y Ana Montoya proponen un reto (challenge) para los estudiantes de “Idioma moderno: inglés” en primer curso del grado de Turismo y para el programa de simultaneidad del grado de Turismo y Ciencias Empresariales. Se busca que los estudiantes tengan que demostrar y aplicar, al final del cuatrimestre, todos los conocimientos adquiridos a lo largo de los cuatro temas que conforman el curso y que los combinen para superar el reto propuesto por el profesor al comenzar el cuatrimestre. El objetivo es mantener la atención del estudiante desde el primer momento y que vean que los contenidos no son unidades independientes, sino que se complementan y se aplican finalmente en un contexto real.[Abstract] Blanca Riestra proposes the use of Kahoot! to boost motivation in ‘Spanish Language I’, a subject taught in year one of the Degree in Translation and Intercultural Communication, and ‘Language and Communication’, taught in year one of the Degree in Advertising and Public Relation. This gamification tool forms the basis of an innovative teaching method that effectively consolidates complex theoretical linguistic concepts, whilst at the same time stimulating and retaining students’ interest. In line with the notion of gamification and the application of ICTs in the classroom, Sarah Moss and Ana Montoya have created a challenge for the students of English for specific purposes within the subject taught in year one of the Degree in Tourism and the simultaneous degree programme for Tourism and Business Science. The objective is that by the end of the teaching period, students are able to demonstrate the acquisition and application of the skills and knowledge acquired through the four modules that comprise the subject by completing the challenge. A second objective is to retain students’ interest and attention throughout the course, highlighting the transversal, interdisciplinary nature of the subject and the possibility of applying the contents to real contexts

Effects of social disruption in elephants persist decades after culling.

BACKGROUND Multi-level fission-fusion societies, characteristic of a number of large brained mammal species including some primates, cetaceans and elephants, are among the most complex and cognitively demanding animal social systems. Many free-ranging populations of these highly social mammals already face severe human disturbance, which is set to accelerate with projected anthropogenic environmental change. Despite this, our understanding of how such disruption affects core aspects of social functioning is still very limited. RESULTS We now use novel playback experiments to assess decision-making abilities integral to operating successfully within complex societies, and provide the first systematic evidence that fundamental social skills may be significantly impaired by anthropogenic disruption. African elephants (Loxodonta africana) that had experienced separation from family members and translocation during culling operations decades previously performed poorly on systematic tests of their social knowledge, failing to distinguish between callers on the basis of social familiarity. Moreover, elephants from the disrupted population showed no evidence of discriminating between callers when age-related cues simulated individuals on an increasing scale of social dominance, in sharp contrast to the undisturbed population where this core social ability was well developed. CONCLUSIONS Key decision-making abilities that are fundamental to living in complex societies could be significantly altered in the long-term through exposure to severely disruptive events (e.g. culling and translocation). There is an assumption that wildlife responds to increasing pressure from human societies only in terms of demography, however our study demonstrates that the effects may be considerably more pervasive. These findings highlight the potential long-term negative consequences of acute social disruption in cognitively advanced species that live in close-knit kin-based societies, and alter our perspective on the health and functioning of populations that have been subjected to anthropogenic disturbance

Contracting with General Dental Services: a mixed-methods study on factors influencing responses to contracts in English general dental practice

Background: Independent contractor status of NHS general dental practitioners (GDPs) and general medical practitioners (GMPs) has meant that both groups have commercial as well as professional identities. Their relationship with the state is governed by a NHS contract, the terms of which have been the focus of much negotiation and struggle in recent years. Previous study of dental contracting has taken a classical economics perspective, viewing practitioners’ behaviour as a fully rational search for contract loopholes. We apply institutional theory to this context for the first time, where individuals’ behaviour is understood as being influenced by wider institutional forces such as growing consumer demands, commercial pressures and challenges to medical professionalism. Practitioners hold values and beliefs, and carry out routines and practices which are consistent with the field’s institutional logics. By identifying institutional logics in the dental practice organisational field, we expose where tensions exist, helping to explain why contracting appears as a continual cycle of reform and resistance. Aims: To identify the factors which facilitate and hinder the use of contractual processes to manage and strategically develop General Dental Services, using a comparison with medical practice to highlight factors which are particular to NHS dental practice. Methods: Following a systematic review of health-care contracting theory and interviews with stakeholders, we undertook case studies of 16 dental and six medical practices. Case study data collection involved interviews, observation and documentary evidence; 120 interviews were undertaken in all. We tested and refined our findings using a questionnaire to GDPs and further interviews with commissioners. Results: We found that, for all three sets of actors (GDPs, GMPs, commissioners), multiple logics exist. These were interacting and sometimes in competition. We found an emergent logic of population health managerialism in dental practice, which is less compatible than the other dental practice logics of ownership responsibility, professional clinical values and entrepreneurialism. This was in contrast to medical practice, where we found a more ready acceptance of external accountability and notions of the delivery of ‘cost-effective’ care. Our quantitative work enabled us to refine and test our conceptualisations of dental practice logics. We identified that population health managerialism comprised both a logic of managerialism and a public goods logic, and that practitioners might be resistant to one and not the other. We also linked individual practitioners’ behaviour to wider institutional forces by showing that logics were predictive of responses to NHS dental contracts at the dental chair-side (the micro level), as well as predictive of approaches to wider contractual relationships with commissioners (the macro level) . Conclusions: Responses to contracts can be shaped by environmental forces and not just determined at the level of the individual. In NHS medical practice, goals are more closely aligned with commissioning goals than in general dental practice. The optimal contractual agreement between GDPs and commissioners, therefore, will be one which aims at the ‘satisfactory’ rather than the ‘ideal’; and a ‘successful’ NHS dental contract is likely to be one where neither party promotes its self-interest above the other. Future work on opportunism in health care should widen its focus beyond the self-interest of providers and look at the contribution of contextual factors such as the relationship between the government and professional bodies, the role of the media, and providers’ social and professional networks. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

Measurement of physical activity in urban and rural South African adults: a comparison of two self-report methods

Abstract Background Due to the large mortality from inactivity-related non-communicable diseases in low- and middle- income countries, accurate assessment of physical activity is important for surveillance, monitoring and understanding of physical (in)activity epidemiology in many of these countries. Research on relative performance of self-report physical activity instruments commonly used for epidemiological research in Africa have rarely been reported. The present study compared estimates of physical activity measured with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire – Short Form (IPAQ-SF) and the Baecke Physical Activity Questionnaire (BPAQ) among urban and rural black South African adults. Methods Self-reported physical activity data using the IPAQ-SF and BPAQ were collected from a representative sample of 910 urban and rural black South African adults (age = 59.2 ± 9.5 years, 69.7 % women) participating in the 2015 wave of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study in the North West Province of South Africa. Between-method relationships (pearson correlations [r] and intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs]) and agreements (Bland-Altman mean difference with 95 % limits of agreement and Kappa coefficient [k]) of IPAQ-SF and BPAQ variables were estimated. Sensitivity and specificity of the BPAQ relative to the IPAQ-SF to classify individuals according to the international guidelines for sufficient physical activity were calculated using chi-square statistics. Results Correlations between IPAQ-SF scores and BPAQ indices were small (r = 0.08–0.18; ICCs = 0.09–0.18) for BPAQ leisure and sport indices, moderate-to-large for work index (r = 0.42–0.59; ICCs = 0.40–0.62) and total physical activity index (r = 0.52–0.60; ICCs = 0.36–0.51). Between methods mean difference for total physical activity was large (1.85 unit), and agreement in physical activity classifications was poor to moderate (k = 0.16–0.44). The sensitivity of the BPAQ to identify sufficiently active people from the IPAQ-SF was very good (98 %), but its specificity to correctly classify insufficiently active people was weak (23 %). Conclusion Notable disparities in physical activity estimates between methods suggest that utilization of IPAQ-SF and BPAQ for surveillance and epidemiology studies in Africa should depend on research questions and population to be studied. Future studies with objective measures are needed to confirm the relative validity between the two instruments

Oxygen Administration and Acute Human Cognitive Enhancement: Higher Cognitive Demand Leads to a More Rapid Decay of Transient Hyperoxia

Both supplemental glucose and oxygen administration can improve aspects of cognitive performance. Previous research has established that more effortful cognitive processing results in reductions in peripheral blood glucose. We hypothesized that a similar phenomenon may be evident when measuring blood oxygen levels. This double-blind, placebo (air)-controlled, crossover study examined the effects of 100% oxygen administration and mental effort on heart rate and blood oxygen saturation. In counterbalanced order, twenty participants performed tasks where cognitive demand was relatively high (Serial Sevens) and relatively low (counting upwards) under conditions of normoxia and hyperoxia. Oxygen saturation and heart rates were co-monitored using a pulse oximeter. Oxygen administration was associated with significantly fewer errors during Serial Sevens and the generation of more responses during counting. Both hyperoxia and heart rate were differentially affected by gas and task. Following oxygen inspiration, transient hyperoxia decayed significantly more rapidly during Serial Sevens than during the counting task. In the air condition, blood oxygen levels were raised during Serial Sevens compared with counting. The opposite effects were observed for heart rate. These results suggest that, following oxygen inspiration, a high cognitive load results in measurable uptake of circulating oxygen. This is likely to involve somatic and central processes