15,036 research outputs found

    Optimal alarm systems for count processes

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    In many phenomena described by stochastic processes, the implementation of an alarm system becomes fundamental to predict the occurrence of future events. In this work we develop an alarm system to predict whether a count process will upcross a certain level and give an alarm whenever the upcrossing level is predicted. We consider count models with parameters being functions of covariates of interest and varying on time. This article presents classical and Bayesian methodology for producing optimal alarm systems. Both methodologies are illustrated and their performance compared through a simulation study. The work finishes with an empirical application to a set of data concerning the number of sunspot on the surface of the sun

    Probing tiny convective cores with the acoustic modes of lowest degree

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    Solar-like oscillations are expected to be excited in stars of up to about 1.6 solar masses. Most of these stars will have convective cores during their Main-sequence evolution. At the edges of these convective cores there is a rapid variation in the sound speed which influences the frequencies of acoustic oscillations. In this paper we build on earlier work by Cunha and Metcalfe, to investigate further the impact that these rapid structural variations have on different p-mode frequency combinations, involving modes of low degree. In particular, we adopt a different expression to describe the sound speed variation at the edge of the core, which we show to reproduce more closely the profiles derived from the equilibrium models. We analyse the impact of this change on the frequency perturbation derived for radial modes. Moreover, we consider three different small frequency separations involving, respectively, modes of degree l = 0, 1, 2, 3; l = 0, 1; and l = 0, 2, and show that they are all significantly affected by the sharp sound speed variation at the edge of the core. In particular, we confirm that the frequency derivative of the diagnostic tool that combines modes of degree up to 3 can potentially be used to infer directly the amplitude of the relative sound speed variation at the edge of the core. Concerning the other two diagnostic tools, we show that at high frequencies they can be up to a few microhertzs smaller than what would be expected in the absence of the rapid structural variation at the edge of the core. Also, we show that the absolute values of their frequency derivatives are significantly increased, in a manner that is strongly dependent on stellar age.Comment: 7 pages. submitted to A&

    Quantum chaos with spin-chains in pulsed magnetic fields

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    Recently it was found that the dynamics in a Heisenberg spin-chain subjected to a sequence of periodic pulses from an external, parabolic, magnetic field can have a close correspondence with the quantum kicked rotor (QKR). The QKR is a key paradigm of quantum chaos; it has as its classical limit the well-known Standard Map. It was found that a single spin excitation could be converted into a pair of non-dispersive, counter-propagating spin coherent states equivalent to the accelerator modes of the Standard Map. Here we consider how other types of quantum chaotic systems such as a double-kicked quantum rotor or a quantum rotor with a double-well potential might be realized with spin chains; we discuss the possibilities regarding manipulation of the one-magnon spin waves.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to PTP special issue for QMC200

    Periodically-driven cold atoms: the role of the phase

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    Numerous theoretical and experimental studies have investigated the dynamics of cold atoms subjected to time periodic fields. Novel effects dependent on the amplitude and frequency of the driving field, such as Coherent Destruction of Tunneling have been identified and observed. However, in the last year or so, three distinct types of experiments have demonstrated for the first time, interesting behaviour associated with the driving phase: i.e. for systems experiencing a driving field of general form V(x)sin⁡(ωt+ϕ)V(x)\sin (\omega t + \phi), different types of large scale oscillations and directed motion were observed. We investigate and explain the phenomenon of Super-Bloch Oscillations (SBOs) in relation to the other experiments and address the role of initial phase in general. We analyse and compare the role of ϕ\phi in systems with homogeneous forces (V′(x)=constV'(x)= const), such as cold atoms in shaken or amplitude-modulated optical lattices, as well as non-homogeneous forces (V′(x)≠constV'(x)\neq const), such as the sloshing of atoms in driven traps, and clarify the physical origin of the different ϕ\phi-dependent effects.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figur

    Optimal control of a dengue epidemic model with vaccination

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    We present a SIR+ASI epidemic model to describe the interaction between human and dengue fever mosquito populations. A control strategy in the form of vaccination, to decrease the number of infected individuals, is used. An optimal control approach is applied in order to find the best way to fight the disease.Comment: This is a preprint of a paper accepted for presentation at ICNAAM 2011, Halkidiki, Greece, 19-25 September 2011, and to appear in AIP Conference Proceedings, volume 138
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