MINIMIZING FARM-TO-MILL COTTON CLEANING COST

This study focuses on least-cost farm-to-mill cotton cleaning configurations employing survey, regression, and simulation techniques. The resulting least-cost cotton cleaning configurations, employing standard textile technology, included the use of one lint cleaning in the ginning stage. The use of a field cleaner in the harvesting stage was also found to be optimal with some variation based on the desired yarn quality. Results of the study indicated that the optimal cleaning configurations were distinctly different from currently used practices, such that appropriate changes could save the cotton industry between $0.30 and$0.60 per bale of cotton, depending on the desired yarn quality.Cotton cleaning, Least-cost configuration, Yarn quality, Crop Production/Industries,

Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series

This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.Unobserved components, state-space, Kalman filter, fiber prices, cofeature, International Relations/Trade, C32, Q11,

Asymmetry, Risk, and Correlation Dynamics in the U.S. Fiber Market

This study looked at the dynamics of conditional correlations and hedging strategies in the US main cotton producing regions. A two-step procedure was utilized to model, estimate, and analyze volatility, conditional correlations, and the optimal hedge ratios using spot prices in the Delta, Southeast, Southern Plains, and the Southwest regions and the New York commodity exchanges December futures contracts. The results indicate that volatilities in most of the regions are asymmetric and persistent. The derived conditional correlations and the optimal hedging ratios are dynamic although they do not have unit root. Moreover, the changes in agricultural policies altered the dynamics of correlations and producers' hedging strategies in the Delta, Southeast, and Southern Plains regions.Cotton, volatility, asymmetry, multivariate conditional correlations, optimal, Risk and Uncertainty,

TEXAS - OKLAHOMA PRODUCER COTTON MARKET SUMMARY: 2001/2002

The volume of the Texas-Oklahoma spot cotton market analyzed by the Daily Price Estimation System (DPES) for the 2001/02 marketing year increased from 222,283 bales the previous year to 364,267 bales this year. The average price received by producers during the 2001/02 marketing year was 26.8 cents/lb, which is considerably less than the previous year. The 2001 crop was generally of good quality. The average micronaire level was higher in 2001 at 4.41, and the average number of bales having level 1 bark was up in comparison to the 2000 crop. With the exception of strength, price discounts for the 2001 crop decreased for all quality attributes, coupled with a decrease in premiums. In regard to strength, producers did not appear to receive a premium for higher levels of strength while lower levels of strength were discounted more severely than the previous year.Crop Production/Industries,

A QUALITATIVE CHOICE ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING POST-CRP LAND USE DECISIONS

The future use of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands is an important agricultural policy issue. To examine the effects of factors that influence landowners' post-contract use of CRP lands, a survey of Texas High Plains CRP contract holders was conducted in 1992. This study analyzes the results of the survey using a qualitative choice model. It was found that the presence of a livestock enterprise in the current contract holder's operation increases the probability of these acres remaining in the established cover. Contract holders who value the commodity base have an increased probability of returning their acres to crop production.Agricultural policy, Conservation Reserve Program, Ordered probit model, Land Economics/Use,

ARE CROP YIELDS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED?

This paper revisits the issue of crop yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation and testing procedures that address the methodological concerns raised in recent literature that could have invalidated previous conclusions of yield non-normality. It shows beyond reasonable doubt that some crop yield distributions are non-normal, kurtotic and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. A procedure to jointly estimate non-normal farm- and aggregate-level yield distributions with similar means but different variances is illustrated, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming yield normality are explored.Yield non-normality, probability distribution function models, Corn Belt yields, West Texas dryland cotton yields, Crop Production/Industries,

Texas-Oklahoma Producer Cotton Market Summary: 1997/98

The 1997/98 Texas-Oklahoma producer cotton markets experienced a decrease in the average producer price of almost 5.5 cents/lb. from the previous marketing year. Overall, quality was generally high and differed little from the 1996 crop. The size of the 1997 crop increased significantly, while the amount of cotton available in the spot market increased accordingly, possibly contributing to the fall in prices. With the exception of strength, discounts for the 1997 crop decreased for every quality attribute, while premiums increased for every quality attribute except staple.Crop Production/Industries,

Texas-Oklahoma Producer Cotton Market Summary: 2000/2001

The size of the Texas-Oklahoma spot market analyzed by the Daily Price Estimation System (DPES) for the 2000/2001 marketing year decreased considerably from the previous year. The average price received by producers during the 2000/2001 marketing year was about 50.9 cents/lb. The 2000 crop was generally of good quality, but the averages for the first digit of the color grade and leaf grade detoriated as compared with the 1999 crop. The percentage of bales having level 1 and 2 bark, and level 1 and 2 other extraneous matter decreased in comparison to the 1999 crop. With the exception of the second digit of the color grade price discounts for the 2000 crop decreased for all quality attributes. The premiums for the first digit of the color grade and strength both decreased, while the premium for leaf increased and that of staple remained about the same.Crop Production/Industries,

Efficient Refuge policies for Bt cotton in India

This study examined the efficient refuge policies for Bt cotton for three cotton growing regions in India. This was accomplished by developing a single-pest, dual-toxin biological model simulating bollworm resistance to the Bt toxin and synthetic pyrethroids, followed by formulating profit functions for Bt and non-Bt cotton for a representative producer in each region. Profits received in subsequent periods were considered in the regulatory model in order to choose a refuge constraint (static problem) or a sequence of refuge policies (dynamic problem) for each region that maximize discounted profits received over 15 years, subject to various economic and biological constraints. Dynamic solutions for the regulatory problem were derived for each region using the Bellman equation. Results suggested that South Indian farmers do not need to grow a refuge, but farmers in the North and Central regions do. Results also suggested that planting sprayed refugia might be more profitable than planting unsprayed refugia. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the refuge requirements were sensitive to the initial Bt resistance level, relative proportion of CBWs in natural refuges, and proportions of heterozygous and homozygous fitnesses in all of the three regions. Moreover, static refugia were found more profitable as compared to dynamic refugia in the North and Central regions.Food Security and Poverty,

Texas-Oklahoma Producer Cotton Market Summary: 1999/2000

The size of the Texas-Oklahoma spot market for the 1999/2000 marketing year increased considerably from the previous year and the average producer price declined for the fourth year in a row. The average price received by producers during the 1999/2000 marketing year was about 37.82 cents/lb., which was 13.32 cents/lb. lower than the previous marketing year. The 1999 crop was generally of good quality, but the average for staple length and strength declined compared to the 1998 crop. The percentage of bales having level 2 bark, and level 1 and 2 other extraneous matter also increased marginally when compared to the 1998 crop. With the exception of the first digit of the color grade, level 1 bark, and level 2 other extraneous matter, price discounts for the 1999 crop decreased for all quality attributes. The premiums for the first digit of the color grade and staple both increased, while the premium for strength decreased.Crop Production/Industries,