Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption.

Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption.</p

Computation and data.

The coronavirus pandemic has revived interest in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper studies the effects of government spending on default risk in emerging economies. We first build a general equilibrium small open economy model where government spending shocks influence external debt and sovereign bond spreads. We show that external debt piles up and sovereign bond spreads increase following a government spending shock. We then develop VAR evidence based on a panel of 18 countries. We find that in response to a 10% government spending increase, (1) the real effective exchange rate appreciates by 1.0% and the current account to GDP ratio deteriorates by 0.0025 on impact; (2) external debt increases by an average of 3.5% in the year following the shock; and (3) the EMBI Global spread rises by an average of 25 basis points within two years and peaks at 132 basis points 14 quarters after the shock, suggesting a higher sovereign default risk. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions from the general equilibrium model.</div

Impulse responses to the government spending shock.

Impulse responses to the government spending shock.</p

Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption in Latin American countries (left) and European countries (right).

Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption in Latin American countries (left) and European countries (right).</p

Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption in episodes of fixed exchange rates (left) and flexible exchange rates (right).

Impulse responses to a 10% shock to government consumption in episodes of fixed exchange rates (left) and flexible exchange rates (right).</p

Dataset.

The coronavirus pandemic has revived interest in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper studies the effects of government spending on default risk in emerging economies. We first build a general equilibrium small open economy model where government spending shocks influence external debt and sovereign bond spreads. We show that external debt piles up and sovereign bond spreads increase following a government spending shock. We then develop VAR evidence based on a panel of 18 countries. We find that in response to a 10% government spending increase, (1) the real effective exchange rate appreciates by 1.0% and the current account to GDP ratio deteriorates by 0.0025 on impact; (2) external debt increases by an average of 3.5% in the year following the shock; and (3) the EMBI Global spread rises by an average of 25 basis points within two years and peaks at 132 basis points 14 quarters after the shock, suggesting a higher sovereign default risk. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions from the general equilibrium model.</div

Parameter values.

The coronavirus pandemic has revived interest in the effects of fiscal policy. This paper studies the effects of government spending on default risk in emerging economies. We first build a general equilibrium small open economy model where government spending shocks influence external debt and sovereign bond spreads. We show that external debt piles up and sovereign bond spreads increase following a government spending shock. We then develop VAR evidence based on a panel of 18 countries. We find that in response to a 10% government spending increase, (1) the real effective exchange rate appreciates by 1.0% and the current account to GDP ratio deteriorates by 0.0025 on impact; (2) external debt increases by an average of 3.5% in the year following the shock; and (3) the EMBI Global spread rises by an average of 25 basis points within two years and peaks at 132 basis points 14 quarters after the shock, suggesting a higher sovereign default risk. The empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions from the general equilibrium model.</div

Metodika počítačové podpory návrhu úchopných mechanických efektorů průmyslových robotů

Import 20/04/2006Prezenční výpůjčkaVŠB - Technická univerzita Ostrava. Fakulta strojní. Katedra (354) robototechnik

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