The relative contribution of the related spatial predictor variables.

The relative contribution of the related spatial predictor variables.</p

List of datasets.

Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered frequent outbreaks of armed conflict since the end of the Cold War. Although several efforts have been made to understand the underlying causes of armed conflict and establish an early warning mechanism, there is still a lack of a comprehensive assessment approach to model the incidence risk of armed conflict well. Based on a large database of armed conflict events and related spatial datasets covering the period 2000–2019, this study uses a boosted regression tree (BRT) approach to model the spatiotemporal distribution of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluation of accuracy indicates that the simulated models obtain high performance with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) mean value of 0.937 and an area under the precision recall curves (PR-AUC) mean value of 0.891. The result of the relative contribution indicates that the background context factors (i.e., social welfare and the political system) are the main driving factors of armed conflict risk, with a mean relative contribution of 92.599%. By comparison, the climate change-related variables have relatively little effect on armed conflict risk, accounting for only 7.401% of the total. These results provide novel insight into modelling the incidence risk of armed conflict, which may help implement interventions to prevent and minimize the harm of armed conflict.</div

Fig 2 -

Validated performance of the boosted regression tree models by using the accuracy evaluation indices ROC-AUC (a) and PR-AUC (b).</p

The relative contribution of the related spatial predictor variables is estimated by random forest.

The relative contribution of the related spatial predictor variables is estimated by random forest.</p

Fig 1 -

The spatial distribution (a) and annual number statistics of (b) battles events from 2000 to 2019.</p

Cross-validation model-fitting example.

An initial number of trees = 50, step size = 10. With a learning rate of 0.01 and a tree complexity of 4, the step procedure identified the optimal number of trees as 3500. (TIF)</p

Fig 3 -

The spatial distribution of battle incidence in 2019 from the actual record (a) and simu-lated by the ensemble BRT Models (b).</p

Technical flowchart of this study.

High-resolution imagery and deep learning models have gained increasing importance in land-use mapping. In recent years, several new deep learning network modeling methods have surfaced. However, there has been a lack of a clear understanding of the performance of these models. In this study, we applied four well-established and robust deep learning models (FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet) to an open benchmark high-resolution remote sensing dataset to compare their performance in land-use mapping. The results indicate that FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet achieved overall accuracies of 80.73%, 89.86%, 91.90%, and 96.01%, respectively, on the test set. Furthermore, we assessed the generalization ability of these models using two measures: intersection of union and F1 score, which highlight Swin-UNet’s superior robustness compared to the other three models. In summary, our study provides a systematic analysis of the classification differences among these four deep learning models through experiments. It serves as a valuable reference for selecting models in future research, particularly in scenarios such as land-use mapping, urban functional area recognition, and natural resource management.</div

Classification diagram of various models.

High-resolution imagery and deep learning models have gained increasing importance in land-use mapping. In recent years, several new deep learning network modeling methods have surfaced. However, there has been a lack of a clear understanding of the performance of these models. In this study, we applied four well-established and robust deep learning models (FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet) to an open benchmark high-resolution remote sensing dataset to compare their performance in land-use mapping. The results indicate that FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet achieved overall accuracies of 80.73%, 89.86%, 91.90%, and 96.01%, respectively, on the test set. Furthermore, we assessed the generalization ability of these models using two measures: intersection of union and F1 score, which highlight Swin-UNet’s superior robustness compared to the other three models. In summary, our study provides a systematic analysis of the classification differences among these four deep learning models through experiments. It serves as a valuable reference for selecting models in future research, particularly in scenarios such as land-use mapping, urban functional area recognition, and natural resource management.</div

The training process of deep learning models.

High-resolution imagery and deep learning models have gained increasing importance in land-use mapping. In recent years, several new deep learning network modeling methods have surfaced. However, there has been a lack of a clear understanding of the performance of these models. In this study, we applied four well-established and robust deep learning models (FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet) to an open benchmark high-resolution remote sensing dataset to compare their performance in land-use mapping. The results indicate that FCN-8s, SegNet, U-Net, and Swin-UNet achieved overall accuracies of 80.73%, 89.86%, 91.90%, and 96.01%, respectively, on the test set. Furthermore, we assessed the generalization ability of these models using two measures: intersection of union and F1 score, which highlight Swin-UNet’s superior robustness compared to the other three models. In summary, our study provides a systematic analysis of the classification differences among these four deep learning models through experiments. It serves as a valuable reference for selecting models in future research, particularly in scenarios such as land-use mapping, urban functional area recognition, and natural resource management.</div