Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

This study addresses the complex relationship between energy and agricultural markets—represented by corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices—particularly in light of the growth in biofuel production. Contemporaneous price response and transmission of market shocks are investigated in a simultaneous-equation system to disclose fundamental driving forces before and after the development of large-scale ethanol production. We use a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to demonstrate a strengthening relationship among corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We identify a structural change point at March 25, 2008 using the test by Bai and Perron (2003). The strengthened market relationship is further illustrated by variance decomposition based on a structural VAR model.corn, ethanol, gasoline, structural break, Structural VAR, GARCH, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C32, Q11, Q4,

Assessing the impact of U.S. ethanol market shocks on global crude oil and U.S. gasoline: A structural VAR approach

Structural VAR, ethanol, crude oil, gasoline, shocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q1, Q2, Q4,

Spatial Dimensions of US Crop Selection: Recent Responses to Markets and Policy

We explicitly measure corn acreage response to the biofuels boom from 2006 to 2010. Specifically, we use newly available micro-scale planting data over time to test whether corn cultivation intensifies in proportion to the proximity of ethanol processors. We control for the endogeneity of plant location to corn acreage by using transportation network data for instruments. Our results show that reducing the distance between a farm and an ethanol plant by one percent increases acreage in corn by 0.64% and reveal a price elasticity of supply of 0.47%. To our knowledge, this is the first study that measures changes in location and intensity of corn planting in response to incentives posed by the recent biofuels boom. The results can serve as a springboard for researchers and policy-makers concerned with crop diversity, environmental sustainability, and greenhouse gas emissions.corn acreage, ethanol, panel data analysis, instrumental variables, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Q1, Q28, C33,

Competition between the U.S. and West Africa in International Cotton Trade: A Focus on Import Demand in China

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that African cotton producers are ill affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the C4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) and United States in China. Demand estimates are used to project how U.S. prices affect China’s imports by country. In comparing demand projections, results show that the relationship between the United States and the C4 has more to do with how U.S. prices can affect global prices rather than any substitute or competitive relationship in the Chinese market.Africa, China, cotton, demand, imports, United States, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, F17, Q11, Q17,

Impacts of renewable fuel regulation and production on agriculture, energy, and welfare

The purpose of this dissertation is to study the impact of U.S. federal renewable fuel regulations on energy and agriculture commodity markets and welfare. We consider two federal ethanol policies: the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) contained in the Energy Security and Independence Act of 2007 and tax credits to ethanol blenders contained in the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008. My first essay estimates the distribution of short-run impacts of changing federal ethanol policies on U.S. energy prices, agricultural commodity prices, and welfare through a stochastic partial equilibrium model of U.S. corn, ethanol, and gasoline markets. My second essay focuses on studying the price behavior of the renewable fuel credit (RFC) market, which is the mechanism developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to meet the RFS. RFCs are a tradable, bankable, and borrowable accounting mechanism to ensure that all obligated parties use a mandated level of renewable fuel. I first develop a conceptual framework to understand how the market works and then apply stochastic dynamic programming to simulate prices for RFCs, examine the sensitivity of prices to relevant shocks, and estimate RFC option premiums. My third essay assesses the impact of policy led U.S. ethanol on the markets of global crude oil and U.S. gasoline using a structural Vector Auto Regression model of global crude oil, U.S. gasoline and ethanol markets

Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market." Working Paper 08-WP

Abstract The outlook for U.S. corn markets is inextricably linked to what happens to the U.S. ethanol industry, which depends, in turn, on the level of government subsidies and mandates. We develop a stochastic partial equilibrium model to simulate outcomes for the corn market for the 2008/09 marketing year to gain insight into these linkages. The model includes …ve stochastic variables that are major contributors to corn price volatility: planted acreage, corn yield, export demand, gasoline prices, and capacity of the ethanol industry. Our results indicate that integration of gasoline and corn markets has increased corn price volatility and that the passage of the expanded ethanol mandates in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) has had modest e¤ects on corn prices. Model results indicate an expected average marketing year price of $4.97 per bushel and a price volatility of 17.5$0.51 per gallon tax credit. Imposition of the mandate increases the expected price by 7.1% and price volatility by 12.1%. The e¤ects of the mandate are modest as ethanol production would average 9.5 billion gallons without the mandate because of high gasoline prices. The mandate is binding with a probability of 37.8%, which indicates that an additional tax or subsidy will be needed to ensure that the mandate is met. High corn prices caused by drought can cause the mandate to bind. Fixing 2008 corn yields at extreme drought levels increases expected corn prices to $6.59 per bushel without a mandate and to$7.99 per bushel with the EISA mandate. An average additional subsidy of $0.73 per gallon of ethanol would be needed to ensure that the mandate is met in this drought scenario. Elimination of the current blenders tax credit would result in the mandate not being met in all cases. On average, a subsidy of$0.41 per gallon would ensure that ethanol production is at least 10 billion gallons in the 2008/09 marketing year

Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

This study addresses the complex relationship between energy and agricultural markets—represented by corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices—particularly in light of the growth in biofuel production. Contemporaneous price response and transmission of market shocks are investigated in a simultaneous-equation system to disclose fundamental driving forces before and after the development of large-scale ethanol production. We use a dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to demonstrate a strengthening relationship among corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We identify a structural change point at March 25, 2008 using the test by Bai and Perron (2003). The strengthened market relationship is further illustrated by variance decomposition based on a structural VAR model