The detection and prediction of climate change in Ireland using an automated classification of atmospheric circulation patterns

The primary objective of this thesis is to investigate whether Irish climate is changing, and if so, what are the possible driving forces of this change. Analyses of surface climate records appear to support global trends. Annual temperature records indicate an increase of 0.5°C since the beginning of the 20th century, with more rapid warming in the past three decades. Irish precipitation changes are also consistent with the predictions of Global Climate Models (GCMs), with evidence of a shift towards winter increases. Other important trends include a decrease in frequency of frost days and an increase in frequency of wet and rain days in certain months of the year. An important element of the research, therefore, is to investigate what is steering this change in climate. A circulation-type catalogue for Ireland has been constructed from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis data, to objectively classify atmospheric circulation patterns. It is thus possible to determine to what extent the changing frequency of circulation types is influencing the spatial and temporal variability of the local climate. As a further step, by using the HadCM3 GCM data for the 2041-2070 period, it is possible to outline what changes in frequency of circulation types may be expected to occur with respect to the emission scenarios. Based on the relationships derived in the present, between CTs and precipitation, these can be applied to future CT frequencies to derive precipitation scenarios. The seasonal precipitation changes found are most likely attributed to changes in the westerly and southwesterly flow, associated with a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Key meteorological indicators of climate change in Ireland

Evidence for an anthropogenic influence on climate change is now stronger than ever before, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report assertion that 'It is very likely that anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases caused most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century'; (IPCC, 2007a). Global average temperature has increased by 0.74oC over the past 100 years with the rate of warming almost doubling over the last 50 years. Precipitation patterns have also changed with an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events being observed globally. In order to determine if global trends are reflected in changes in climate at the regional and local level in Ireland, a number of potential indicators of climate change have been investigated. Based on existing observational data, indicators can provide an early warning system, which may point to a critical environmental problem in the future. Climate indicators for Ireland are based primarily on daily synoptic station temperature and precipitation data from Met Éireann's monitoring network ...researc

indicators for Ireland (2000-LS-5.2.2-M1) ; final report

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change represented a consensus among the world's leading climate scientists that rapid climate changes were occurring on a global scale. In particular, the marked warming that had occurred over the past half century was, they concluded, substantially caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the troposphere as a result of anthropogenic activities. Globally, 1998 was the warmest year of the warmest decade of the warmest century of at least the last millennium. Such fluctuations, the IPCC suggested, were already capable of being associated with changes in a diverse set of physical and biological indicators in many parts of the world. Indicators of climate change are primarily used to simplify a complex reality and to communicate, more succinctly, critical information regarding climatic trends. They also provide an essential early warning system by making available information that may point to an environmental problem which is capable of being ameliorated before it becomes critical. In establishing indicators, a distinction can be made between primary indicators, based on analysis of directly observed meteorological data, and secondary indicators, based on the responses of the living world to climate changes which provoke a response in living organisms.researc

The Isle of Man Climate Change Scoping Study: Future climate change scenarios

Abstract included in text

The Isle of Man Climate Change Scoping Study: Future climate change scenarios

Abstract included in text

The Isle of Man Climate Change Scoping Study: Climate indicators

Abstract included in text

The Isle of Man Climate Change Scoping Study: Climate change and water resources on the Isle of Man

Abstract included in text

Changing Shades of Green: The environmental and cultural impacts of climate change in Ireland

This report, as the reader will see, follows two distinct but intertwined paths. One path, rooted in science, outlines the ecological impacts of climate change in Ireland. We describe climate changes witnessed in the later decades of the 20th century and the most likely scenarios for change in this current century. We do not offer a primer on climate science, nor do we provide great detail on the methodology used to downscale global climate models for modeling the Irish climate. We instead attempt to tell a simple story of how the Irish climate is likely to change, relying exclusively on peer-reviewed scientific literature. The other path, rooted in culture, describes how these ecological changes may affect the look and feel of the Irish landscape, and how they may affect life in Ireland. These sections do not rely on peer-reviewed literature; they instead rely on an intuitive sense of those things that matter greatly to the Irish. We include discussions of music and poetry because they explain the intense connections between the Irish landscape and Irish culture and how changes to one can affect the other

Changing Shades of Green: The environmental and cultural impacts of climate change in Ireland

This report, as the reader will see, follows two distinct but intertwined paths. One path, rooted in science, outlines the ecological impacts of climate change in Ireland. We describe climate changes witnessed in the later decades of the 20th century and the most likely scenarios for change in this current century. We do not offer a primer on climate science, nor do we provide great detail on the methodology used to downscale global climate models for modeling the Irish climate. We instead attempt to tell a simple story of how the Irish climate is likely to change, relying exclusively on peer-reviewed scientific literature. The other path, rooted in culture, describes how these ecological changes may affect the look and feel of the Irish landscape, and how they may affect life in Ireland. These sections do not rely on peer-reviewed literature; they instead rely on an intuitive sense of those things that matter greatly to the Irish. We include discussions of music and poetry because they explain the intense connections between the Irish landscape and Irish culture and how changes to one can affect the other

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission: Optical Telescope Element Design, Development, and Performance

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared space telescope that has recently started its science program which will enable breakthroughs in astrophysics and planetary science. Notably, JWST will provide the very first observations of the earliest luminous objects in the Universe and start a new era of exoplanet atmospheric characterization. This transformative science is enabled by a 6.6 m telescope that is passively cooled with a 5-layer sunshield. The primary mirror is comprised of 18 controllable, low areal density hexagonal segments, that were aligned and phased relative to each other in orbit using innovative image-based wavefront sensing and control algorithms. This revolutionary telescope took more than two decades to develop with a widely distributed team across engineering disciplines. We present an overview of the telescope requirements, architecture, development, superb on-orbit performance, and lessons learned. JWST successfully demonstrates a segmented aperture space telescope and establishes a path to building even larger space telescopes.Comment: accepted by PASP for JWST Overview Special Issue; 34 pages, 25 figure