49 research outputs found

    Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters: optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy

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    How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap

    Forecasting world trade: direct versus “bottom-up” approaches

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    In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows. JEL Classification: C53, C32, E37, F17Factor models, forecasts, Time series models, World trade

    Import Price Dynamics in Major Advanced Economies and Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

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    This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991–2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degrees of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging economies is also significantly lower than for those from developed economies. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and particular events, like large exchange rates depreciations during the Asian crisis, seem to influence the degree of pass-through related to imports from emerging economies.Exchange rates; Inflation and prices

    Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through

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    This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991-2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degree of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging economies is also significantly lower than for those from developed economies. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and particular events, like large exchange rates depreciations during the Asian crisis, seem to influence the degree of pass-through related to imports from emerging economies. JEL Classification: E31, F3, F41Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Import price modeling, Pricing to Market

    From elusive thio- and selenosilanoic acids to copper(I) complexes with intermolecular Si=E -> Cu-O-Si coordination modes (E = S, Se)

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    Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.The facile synthesis of the first stable selenosilanoic acid–base adduct LSi([double bond, length as m-dash]Se)OH(dmap) 3 (L = CH[C(Me)NAr]2, Ar = 2,6-iPr2C6H3, dmap = 4-dimethylaminopyridine), the heavier analogue of the thiosilanoic acid adduct LSi([double bond, length as m-dash]S)OH(dmap) 1, is reported. Both adducts 1 and 3 react readily with MesCu (Mes = 2,4,6-trimethylphenyl) to form the novel dimeric Cu(I) complexes [LSi([double bond, length as m-dash]E)OCu]2 (4: E = S; 5: E = Se) with unprecedented intermolecular Si[double bond, length as m-dash]E → Cu–O–Si coordination modes. The latter are efficient pre-catalysts for the Cu(I)-mediated aziridination of styrene with PhI[double bond, length as m-dash]N(Ts) (Ts = tosyl)

    Ensemble modeling highlights importance of understanding parasite-host behavior in preclinical antimalarial drug development

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    Emerging drug resistance and high-attrition rates in early and late stage drug development necessitate accelerated development of antimalarial compounds. However, systematic and meaningful translation of drug efficacy and host-parasite dynamics between preclinical testing stages is missing. We developed an ensemble of mathematical within-host parasite growth and antimalarial action models, fitted to extensive data from four antimalarials with different modes of action, to assess host-parasite interactions in two preclinical drug testing systems of murine parasite P. berghei in mice, and human parasite P. falciparum in immune-deficient mice. We find properties of the host-parasite system, namely resource availability, parasite maturation and virulence, drive P. berghei dynamics and drug efficacy, whereas experimental constraints primarily influence P. falciparum infection and drug efficacy. Furthermore, uninvestigated parasite behavior such as dormancy influences parasite recrudescence following non-curative treatment and requires further investigation. Taken together, host-parasite interactions should be considered for meaningful translation of pharmacodynamic properties between murine systems and for predicting human efficacious treatment

    Presentation of CMV immediate-early antigen to cytolytic T lymphocytes is selectively prevented by viral genes expressed in the early phase

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    The regulation of antigen processing and presentation to MHC class I-restricted cytolytic T lymphocytes was studied in cells infected with murine cytomegalovirus. Recognition by cytolytic T lymphocytes of the phosphoprotein pp89, the immunodominant viral antigen expressed in the immediate-early phase of infection, was selectively prevented during the subsequent expression of viral early genes. The surface expression of MHC class I glycoproteins and their capacity to present externally added pp89-derived antigenic peptides were not affected. Because recognition of several other antigens occurred during the early phase, a general failure in processing and presentation was excluded. Since neither rate of synthesis, amount, stability, nor nuclear transport of pp89 was modified, the failure in recognition indicates a selective interference with pp89 antigen processing and presentation
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