Forecasting median and mode dates of prevalence of Japanese encephalitis patients by electronic computer (epidemiological studies on Japanese encephalitis, 31)

For the purpose of forecasting the prevalence ofJapanese encephalitis in Japan, we tried to find out the correlation of factors between median and mode dates of epidemic time curve of prevalence on one hand, and average atmospheric temperatures of prefectures in June and July (T6,7 in short) (X&#185;), the time when HI reaction of swine became positive to the degree of 50 per cent (D. pos. swine in short) (X&#178;), the latitude (x&#179;) and longitude (x4) in respective prefectures (in 1965 and 1967). On the other we also estimated the median and mode dates of this epidemic curve of the prevalence in 1968 and 1969, from the regression equation of one variable and multiple regression equation from the above factors using an electronic computer. The usefulness of adding factors concerned with mosquitoes to the above four factors is proven by the accuracy of estimation. And the following results were obtained. 1) Phenomenally speaking, the prevalence of Japanese encephalitis follows the principle of &#34;advancing of prevalence towards the north and east&#34; and essentially speaking, it depends upon high atmospheric temperature and the outbreak of many hazardous mosquitoes by the high atmospheric temperature. 2) To estimate median date (y) and mode rate (z) of the epidemic time curve of the prevalence, we can use the next equations; The regression equations to estimate y and z from T 6,7(X) are as follows. y = - 3. 75X&#185; + 144.47 &#963; = 12.4.·. [1] z = - 3. 80X&#185; + 157 .26 &#963; = 14.9.. · [1]' The regression equation from D. pos. swine (X&#178;) are as follows. y = 0. 68X&#178; + 31. 82 &#963; = 9.2· .. [2] z=0. 76X&#178; +40. 71 &#963;= 12.0 .. · [2]' The multiple regression equation from T6 ,7 and D. pos. swme are as follows. y = -1. 07X&#185; +0 .62x&#178; +59. 37 &#963;= 9.7 ... [3] z= -0. 79x&#185; +0. 71x&#178; +61.02 &#963;= 12.0· .. [3]' The multiple regression equations from T 6•7, D. pos. swine, latitude and longitude are as follows Y= -1.01x&#185; +0.58x&#178; -0.26x&#179;+0 .37x4 + 18.50 &#963;= 9.8&#65381;&#65381;&#65381; [4] z = -0. 32x&#185; +0. 52x&#178; +2 .05x&#179; +0 .54x4 -87. 81 &#963;= 11.8 [4]' 3) We Obtained the estimated value of median date in 17 prefectures in Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Kinki and Kanto provinces in 1968 and in 13 prefectures in 1969 from [l] or [2] or [3] or [4] equation. Nine prefectures out of 17 by [l], 12 prefectures by [2], 13 by [3J and [4] in 1968. [4] could be estimated with about 10 days error or less. And in 1969, 9 out of 13 by [3] and 7 out of 13 by [4] could be accurately esti· mated. The estimation by the multiple regression equation using many factors is most useful for the calculation. 4) The time when the number of patients increases at maximum can be pointed out by the lower limit of prediction region obtained from data in each prefecture. And the lower limit was the estimated median value minus about 20 days by [1] and about 16 days by [2] or [3] or [4] under the next condition; &#945; = 0. 1, N= 75. 5) The mode dates in 17 prefectures out of 19 were estimated by [1]', [2]', [3]' and [4]'. 12 prefectures out of 17 by [1]', 7 by [2]', 10 by [3]' and 13 by [4]' could be estimated with about 12 days error or less in 1968 and 9 out of 13 was correctly estimated by [3]' and [4]' in 1969. The estimation by the regression line of one factor was s~mewhat different from each other, but when multiple regression line of four factors was used the estimation became more correct. Judging from these results, it is adequate to use the multiple regression equation of [4] and [4]' when we want to forecast the median date or mode date ofJapanese encephalitis time cure. 6) In the case of adding two factors concerned with mosquitoes to T6,7 (X&#185;), D. pos. swine (x&#178;), latitude (x&#179;), longitude (x4), multiple regression equations become as follows. y= -1.46x&#185;+0.14X&#178;+0.068x5+89.03 &#963;= 6.9.. ·[5] z= -3. 29x&#185;+0 .13x&#178;-0. 010x5+ 143.63 &#963;= 18.6··· [5]' y=-4.20x&#185;+0.35x&#178;+0.29x6 + 53.70 &#963;= 4.2 .. ·[6] z=-2.56x&#185;-0.0lx&#178;-0.02x6 +128.96 &#963;=11.4 [6]' y= 4.76x&#185;+0.41x&#178;+0.13x5+0.22x6-72.78 &#963;= 4.5 [7] z = - 2. l0x&#185; + 0. 05x&#178;+ 0. 11 x5 - 0. 08x6+ 113.4 &#963;= 10. 7.. · [7]' where x5 is the time when the number of mosquitoes (C. T. collected by light trap reached the maximum and X6 is the time when hazardous mosq uitoes were dected. In the case of median date, 5 prefectures out of 6 prefectures by [5], 2 out of 6 by [6] and 2 out of 5 by [7], and in the case of mode date, 5 out of 6 by [5]', 4 out of 5 by [6]' and 4 out of 5 by [7]' could be accurately estimated in 1969.</p

An updated maximum likelihood approach to open cluster distance determination

An improved method for estimating distances to open clusters is presented and applied to Hipparcos data for the Pleiades and the Hyades. The method is applied in the context of the historic Pleiades distance problem, with a discussion of previous criticisms of Hipparcos parallaxes. This is followed by an outlook for Gaia, where the improved method could be especially useful. Based on maximum likelihood estimation, the method combines parallax, position, apparent magnitude, colour, proper motion, and radial velocity information to estimate the parameters describing an open cluster precisely and without bias. We find the distance to the Pleiades to be $120.3 \pm 1.5$ pc, in accordance with previously published work using the same dataset. We find that error correlations cannot be responsible for the still present discrepancy between Hipparcos and photometric methods. Additionally, the three-dimensional space velocity and physical structure of Pleiades is parametrised, where we find strong evidence of mass segregation. The distance to the Hyades is found to be $46.35\pm 0.35$ pc, also in accordance with previous results. Through the use of simulations, we confirm that the method is unbiased, so will be useful for accurate open cluster parameter estimation with Gaia at distances up to several thousand parsec.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables, 3 appendices. Accepted in A&

Soluciones a Retos Analíticos en Proteómica Cuantitativa y Validación de Biomarcadores

Comunicaciones a congreso

Studies on the protein synthesis in poisoning. II. Incor­poration of C14-2-glycine into albumin and other protein fractions by liver slices from normal guinea pig and those injected with CCL4

Protein synthesis of the liver in both normal and CCl4 intoxicatedguinea pigs has been examined in vitro by incubating liver slices with C14-glycine. It has been demonstrated that normal liver slices synthesize albumin in vitro, which in turn incorporates with Cl4-glycine and is finally liberated into the medium very rapidly. On the other hand, immunized lymph nodes, kidney, and spleen do not show any C14-glycine incorporation into albumin. The liver slices of CCl4. intoxicated animal revealed a marked decrease in C14-glycine incorporation into albumin. Observation on the subcellular fractions proved that the incorporation of C14-glycine into microsome fraction is severely arrested, and oxygen consumption of liver slices is only slightly reduced. With the observation on the liver slices incubated with DNP, the author attributes the effect of CCl4 on protein synthesis to the decreased ATP formation by the action of CCl4 as an uncoupler for oxidative phosphorylation.</p

Studies on the portein synthesis in poisoning,1.

The incorporation of C14-2-glycine into the subcellular fractions of liver, kidney and serum proteins was observed in mice receiving CCl4 injections. The results showed a marked inhibitory effect of CCl4 on incorporation of C14-glycine into each subcellular fraction of the liver, but not of the kidney. The inhibition of the C14-glycine incorporation was most marked in mitochondria, moderate in soluble protein and minimal in microsomes, in the groups of mice given two injections of CCl4. In the animals given CCl. injection, serum albumin is decreased with the decreased incorporation of C14-glycine into the albumin but &#946;-globulin fraction is increased. The former will be the result of the decreased albumin synthesis in the poisoned liver and the latter will be correlated with the fatty degeneration of liver.</p

Vaccination with complete adjuvant-added inactivated virus vaccine of Japanese encephalitis to swine, rabbits and chicks for preventing viremia (epidemiological study on Japanese encephalitis 25)

As a step towards the elimination of Japanese encephalitis virus in natural surroundings, we inoculated pigs, rabbits and chicks with inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine supplemented with complete or incomplete Freund's adjuvant twice at one-week interval. Subsequently, we compared HI antibody titers of the groups inoculated with vaccine containing complete Freund's adjuvant (pigs, rabbits, chicks), of the group inoculated with vaccine containing incomplete adjuvant (rabbits), ar;d of the groups inoculated with vaccine containing no adjuvant (pigs, rabbits, chicks), and also observations on changes in the antibody titers due to natural infection. In a certain portion of these animals neutralizing antibody titers were also determined. The results of this study are briefly summarized as follows. 1. In the groups of pigs and rabbits inoculated with vaccine containing complete Freund's adjuvant, titers of HI antibody and neutralizing antibody were higher than those inoculated with vaccine containing no adjuvant and their high titers persisted. Further, in the group of chicks inoculated with inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine containing complete Freund's adjuvant, HI antibody titers were higher and persistent as compared with the antibody titers in the chicks inoculated with inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine alone. 2. In the rabbits inoculated with inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine contammg incomplete adjuvant, HI antibody titers were lower than in those receiving the vaccine with complete adjuvant, but it has been demonstrated clearly that vaccination of inactivated Japanese encephalitis vaccine supplemented with incomplete adjuvant brings about less sideeffects. Hence such a method of vaccination can be applied as the vaccination with least side-effects. 3. With respect to natural infection of swine, on August 27 when the pigs were thought to have been infected, there was observed a rise in antibody titers. And on being infected with Japanese encephalitis, the antibodies formed in those pigs inoculated with inactivated Japanese ence- phalitis vaccine with or without complete adjuvant proved to be all 2-ME resistant type, whereas the antibodies produced in the control groups not receiving such a vaccination were 2-ME sensitive antibody.</p

Studies on the protein synthesis in poisoning. III. Labeling of pH-5 enzyme with C14-glycine and the inhibition by para chloromercuribenzoate

The labeling of C14-glycine to pH-5 enzyme, PP32-ATP exchange by pH-5 enzyme, and the inhibitory action of p-chloromercuribenwate were examined. 1) The labeling of C14-glycine to pH-5 enzyme is inhibited by 10-4 mole of PCMB, and this inhibitory effect is reduced by addition of cysteine having 20 mole equivalent of PCMB. 2) The PP32-ATP exchange reaction is also reduced by addition of PCMB and inhibitory effect of PCMB is reduced by the addition of cysteine having 20 mole equivalent of PCMB. 3) These results show that the inhibition of the organic mercury compounds on the protein synthesis is responsible for attack the SH enzyme which catalyzes some amino-acid activation, and consequently influences activated amino-acid transfer reaction. 4) Paper electrophoretic pattern of pH-5 enzyme shows numerous peaks, each having the mobility between &#945;2-globulin and &#947;-globulin.</p