The Evolution of Welfare Participation Among Canadian Lone Mothers From 1973 ­ 1991

The objective of this paper is to analyse changes in the welfare participation of Canadian lone mothers between 1973 and 1991. Lone mothers under age 35 do show an increasing reliance on SA income accompanied by stagnant wages and declining levels of market work and earnings. In contrast, lone mothers age 35 and over exhibit a declining reliance on SA income accompanied by rising levels of market work, wages and earnings income. Estimates of a simple economic­demographic probit model of welfare participation are both consistent with theoretical expectations and capable of accounting for a large portion of the very different observed trends for older and younger lone mothers. Much of the declining welfare use among older lone mothers can be explained by decreasing family size, increasing education and market wages which grew at the same rate as welfare benefits. Much of the rising welfare use among younger lone mothers can be explained by a decline in wages relative to welfare benefits accompanied by a mixed pattern of demographic change for this age group. Among younger lone mothers, modest declines in family size and increases in schooling were offset by a large increase in the proportion never married.

The Role of Child Health and Economic Status in Educational, Health and Labour Market Outcomes in Young Adulthood

The Ontario Child Health Study provides the first opportunity in Canada to assess directly the relationship between socio-economic and health status in childhood and levels of completed schooling, health status and labour market success in young adulthood. We find that childhood health problems are negatively associated with educational attainment, especially the probability of a university degree, and the health status of young adults. Our results also imply that childhood health problems influence adult labour force outcomes, especially for males, mainly through adult levels of schooling and health.Child Health; Adult Outcomes

The Impact of ESL Funding Restrictions on Student Academic Achievement

ESL instruction is an important issue in Canada due to the large number of immigrants and has potentially impacts on both student academic progress and educational expenditures. In 1999, the province of British Columbia limited funding for ESL to five years per student but increased the annual ESL supplement. We explore the educational impact of these reforms using the results of standardized tests of numeracy, reading and writing proficiency for Grade 7 students. We compare differences in test scores, both before and after the policy change, among the following groups of Grade 7 students in the GVA: students with 5 or more years of ESL (those constrained by the new policy); students with one to four years of ESL; non-ESL students with a non-official home language; and non-ESL students with an official home language. No group of students experiences large changes in test scores due to the reform. The changes we do observe are usually increases for ESL students, and the few decreases are very small. Moreover, both before and after the reform, score differences between groups of students with different experiences of ESL, different neighbourhood socio-economic characteristics, and different home languages are modest in size.English Second Language; Educational Funding

The Duration of Spells on Welfare and Off-welfare among Lone Mothers in Ontario

This paper provides a first look at the dynamics of social assistance use among lone mothers in Ontario. We use an administrative caseload data set to analyse the relationship between the duration of spells, both on welfare and off welfare, and a series of factors including the clients’ personal characteristics, their history of welfare use, the duration of current spells, labour market conditions and social assistance benefit levels. We find mixed evidence concerning the key policy question of the scarring or stigmatizing effects of welfare, that is, a “welfare trap”. There is evidence that the likelihood of exiting welfare declines during the first year of a spell. The support is weakest, however, in our preferred specification. There is more consistent evidence that the likelihood of returning to welfare declines during the first year after an exit, that is, staying off the rolls has the beneficial effect of making recidivism less likely. Clients who have spent more months on welfare in the past (controlling for age) do appear to have somewhat longer future spells on welfare and to return more quickly to the rolls once they leave, but the magnitude of this effect is very small. The length of both welfare and off-welfare spells is very sensitive to the levels of welfare benefits. Most of the other coefficients have significant effects of the expected sign. Welfare spells tend to be longer for those lone mothers who are younger, poorly educated, never married, not employable and for those who have more and younger children. Spell lengths also increase with the level of the unemployment rate and decrease with the level of the minimum wage. Off-welfare spells tend to be shorter (the return to welfare more rapid) for those lone mothers who are older, never married, not employable and who have very young children. Off- welfare spells are longer when the minimum wage is higher.

Lone Female Headship and Welfare Policy in Canada

The principal qualifying condition for welfare in Canada, unlike the US, is financial need - there are no demographic criteria. We use a time-series of annual, national cross-sections for the period 1981 through 1993 to estimate a model of lone-female headship. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that welfare benefit levels for one-parent and two-parent families are important determinants of the likelihood that a Canadian woman is a lone mother. In all models with provincial fixed effects, the coefficients for welfare benefits are small, statistically insignificant and often of the unexpected sign. We do find that the probability that a woman is a lone mother is generally associated in the expected fashion with her earnings capacity and the earnings capacity of her potential male partner, and with her age and schooling.

School Competition and Efficiency with Publicly Funded Catholic Schools

The province of Ontario has two publicly funded school systems: secular schools (known as public schools) that are open to all students, and separate schools that are limited to children with Catholic backgrounds. A simple model of inter-system competition predicts that incentives for effort are higher in areas where there are more Catholic families who are relatively uncommitted to one system or the other. We measure the willingness of Catholic families to switch systems by studying the effect of school openings on enrollment at nearby schools in the competing system. The results suggest that families in rapidly growing areas have the weakest attachment to a particular system. We then relate student test score gains between 3rd and 6th grade to measures of potential cross-system competition. We find that competition for Catholic students has a significant effect on test outcomes in both systems, particularly in fast-growing areas. Our estimates imply that expanding competition to all students would raise average test scores in 6th grade by 6-8% of a standard deviation.school competition; student achievement

Lone Female Headship and Welfare Policy in Canada

The principal qualifying condition for welfare in Canada, unlike the US, is financial need - there are no demographic criteria. We use a time-series of annual, national cross-sections for the period 1981 through 1993 to estimate a model of lone-female headship. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that welfare benefit levels for one-parent and two-parent families are important determinants of the likelihood that a Canadian woman is a lone mother. In all models with provincial fixed effects, the coefficients for welfare benefits are small, statistically insignificant and often of the unexpected sign. We do find that the probability that a woman is a lone mother is generally associated in the expected fashion with her earnings capacity and the earnings capacity of her potential male partner, and with her age and schooling.

Persistence and Academic Success in University

We use a unique set of linked administrative data sets to explore the determinants of persistence and academic success in university. The explanatory power of high school grades greatly dominates that of other variables such as university program, gender, and neighbourhood and high school characteristics. Indeed, high school and neighbourhood characteristics, such as average standardized test scores for a high school or average neighbourhood income, have weak links with success in university.university success, high school, neighbourhood.

Persistence and Academic Success in University

We use a unique set of linked administrative data sets to explore the determinants of persistence and academic success in university. The explanatory power of high school grades greatly dominates that of other variables such as university program, gender, and neighbourhood and high school characteristics. Indeed, high school and neighbourhood characteristics, such as average standardized test scores for a high school or average neighbourhood income, have weak links with success in university.University Success, High School, Neighbourhood