316 research outputs found

    Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile

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    This paper attempts to provide an economic interpretation of the factors that drive the movements of interest rates of bonds of different maturities in a continuous-time no-arbitrage term structure model for Chile. The dynamics of yields in the model are explained by two latent factors, namely the instantaneous short rate and its time-varying central tendency. The model estimates suggest that the short end of the yield curve is mainly driven by changes in first latent factor, while long-term interest rates are mainly explained by the second latent factor. Consequently, when examining movements in the term structure, one should think of at least two forces that hit the economy: temporary shocks that change short-term and medium-term interest rates by much larger amounts than long-term interest rates, causing changes in the slope of the yield curve; and long-lived innovations which have persistent effects on the level of the yield curve.

    An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile

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    This paper attempts to provide an economic interpretation of the factors that drive the movements of interest rates of bonds of different maturities in a continuous-time no arbitrage term structure model for Chile. The dynamics of yields in the model are explained by two latent factors, namely the instantaneous short rate and its time-varying central tendency. The model estimates suggest that the short end of the yield curve is mainly driven by changes in first latent factor, while long-term interest rates are mainly explained by the second latent factor. Consequently, when examining movements in the term structure, one should think of at least two forces that hit the economy: temporary shocks that change short-term and medium-term interest rates by much larger amounts than long-term interest rates, causing changes in the slope of the yield curve; and long-lived innovations which have persistent effects on the level of the yield curve.Affine term structure model; yield curve; Kalman filter

    An Analysis of Disparities in Education: The Case of Primary School Completion Rates in Bolivia

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    The Education Reform Program launched in the mid-1990s by the Government of Bolivia had important accomplishments, particularly by increasing the coverage of primary education. However, the high rates of coverage observed at national level conceal the inequality in the distribution of schooling across children from different income groups, from indigenous households or even among municipalities from different areas of the country. This document intends to present a brief diagnosis of disparities in education access an attainment exploring data at individual and municipal level. The document finds that children from low-income families, indigenous groups and/or rural areas are less likely to finish primary school. Similar disparities are evident when observing data at municipal level. High poverty incidence, high indigenous-groups concentration and high dispersion of the population, are basic characteristics of municipalities with low primary school completion rates. The document also suggests a simple methodology that allows to identify municipalities that are high performers and low performers. This approach combines quantitative and qualitative analysis and may well bring to light important actions that could be undertaken in the poorly performing school districts to improve their ability to improve their performanceEducation disparities analysis of education.

    The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile

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    This paper presents GMM empirical estimations of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for Chile. Our results tend to support the hybrid version of the NKPC, with an estimated backward-looking coefficient of about 0.4. The estimated Calvo coefficient, that captures the degree of price rigidity, assuming firm specific capital is about 0.65. This implies that prices are optimally adjusted on average every 3 quarters, approximately. Our results also indicate the existence of a structural break in the NKPC, which occurred when the inflation target converged to its long-run level (around 2000). We find evidence that the frequency of optimal price adjustment and the degree of indexation to past inflation have decreased over time.

    El papel de las redes sociales en las oportunidades económicas de las mujeres de Bolivia

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    En este trabajo se analiza el papel de las redes sociales para determinar la participación de mujeres bolivianas en actividades generadoras de ingresos. Los resultados hacen pensar que las redes sociales son un canal eficaz para que las mujeres obtengan acceso a empleos asalariados, los cuales son de mayor calidad que los empleos independientes. Por el contrario, sus contrapartes varones perciben un efecto positivo aunque estadísticamente insignificante en la interacción con redes sociales. Al tomar en cuenta el sexo del contacto, las mujeres de zonas urbanas se benefician de otras mujeres empleadas, mientras en las zonas rurales las mujeres se benefician de la presencia de más trabajadores hombres empleados. (Disponible en Inglés)

    UNA APROXIMACIÓN NO LINEAL A LA RELACIÓN INFLACIÓN– CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO: UN ESTUDIO PARA AMÉRICA LATINA

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    Existe un amplio consenso del efecto adverso de altas tasas de inflación sobre el crecimiento económico, no obstante, no existe pleno acuerdo en cuanto al efecto de tasas de inflación moderadas. Este trabajo re- examina la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento en una muestra de nueve países de América Latina utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas apropiadas para la evaluación e inferencia de relaciones no lineales. Los resultados de la investigación confirman la existencia de una relación no lineal entre ambas variables encontrando que tasas de inflación superiores a 17% ocasionan una contracción en la tasa de crecimiento del producto, pero tienen un efecto positivo cuando no superan este nivel. Sin embargo, el amplio intervalo de confianza encontrado para el punto de quiebre sugiere cautela al momento de hacer recomendaciones de política económica. Tasas de inflación mayores al 9%, dependiendo el país, podrían tener efectos adversos sobre el crecimiento. Cabe destacar que, de manera contraria a trabajos anteriores, los resultados encontrados se mantienen robustos ante la eliminación de observaciones extremas.Inflación, crecimiento, América Latina, datos de panel

    Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile

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    Este documento analiza el impacto de un shock en la tasa de interés externa en la economía chilena. Con este fin, se estima un modelo empírico de Vectores Autoregresivos y adicionalmente se desarrolla un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general calibrado y parametrizado para la economía chilena. Del análisis de las funciones impulso-respuesta del modelo empírico se concluye que la autoridad monetaria no debiese reaccionar ante un shock transitorio en la tasa de interés externa. Más aún, si la autoridad monetaria reaccionase causaría una caída en el nivel de producto y un aumento de la tasa de inflación debido al ' price puzzle ' observado. De manera similar, las funciones impulso-respuesta y las simulaciones del modelo teórico utilizando reglas á la Taylor alternativas sugieren que la autoridad monetaria no debería reaccionar ante un aumento de la tasa de interés externa mientras valore la estabilidad de la tasa de inflación por sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de depreciación. Los resultados sugieren que una reacción moderada de la autoridad solamente lograría disminuir la volatilidad del tipo de cambio a un costo de una tasa de inflación más volátil.Monetary Policy, Open Economy General Eqilibrium Model, Foreign Interest Rate Shock, Monetary Policy Rules á la Taylor

    Temperature, Aggregate Risk, and Expected Returns

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    In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument is based on evidence from global capital markets which shows that the covariance between country equity returns and temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences in temperature betas mirror exposures to aggregate growth rate risk, which we show is negatively impacted by temperature shocks. That is, portfolios with larger exposure to risk from aggregate growth also have larger temperature betas; hence, a larger risk premium. We further show that increases in global temperature have a negative impact on economic growth in countries closer to the Equator, while its impact is negligible in countries at high latitudes. Consistent with this evidence, we show that there is a parallel between a country's distance to the Equator and the economy's dependence on climate sensitive sectors; in countries closer to the Equator industries with a high exposure to temperature are more prevalent. We provide a Long-Run Risks based model that quantitatively accounts for cross-sectional differences in temperature betas, its link to expected returns, and the connection between aggregate growth and temperature risks.

    Welfare Costs of Long-Run Temperature Shifts

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    This article makes a contribution towards understanding the impact of temperature fluctuations on the economy and financial markets. We present a long-run risks model with temperature related natural disasters. The model simultaneously matches observed temperature and consumption growth dynamics, and key features of financial markets data. We use this model to evaluate the role of temperature in determining asset prices, and to compute utility-based welfare costs as well as dollar costs of insuring against temperature fluctuations. We find that the temperature related utility-costs are about 0.78% of consumption, and the total dollar costs of completely insuring against temperature variation are 2.46% of world GDP. If we allow for temperature-triggered natural disasters to impact growth, insuring against temperature variation raise to 5.47% of world GDP. We show that the same features, long-run risks and recursive-preferences, that account for the risk-free rate and the equity premium puzzles also imply that temperature-related economic costs are important. Our model implies that a rise in global temperature lowers equity valuations and raises risk premiums.

    Humans-with-Media en la producción de conocimiento matemático. El caso de Geogebra

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    Este documento se usa el constructo teórico Humans-with-Media para analizar una situación construida con el software Geogebra. La situación muestra un posible entendimiento de la función derivada a partir del reconocimiento de la “función tasa de variación”
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