Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity

We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically, adding the return and the volatility of firm-level equity prices to aggregate financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at various horizons. Importantly, not only domestic firms but also foreign firms improve business cycle predictability for a given economic area. This is not immediately visible when one takes an unconditional standpoint (i.e. an average across the sample). However, conditioning on the business cycle position of the domestic economy, the relative importance of the two sets of firms - foreign and domestic - exhibits noticeable swings across time. Analogously, the sectoral classification of the firms that in a given month retain the highest predictive power for future IP changes also varies significantly over time as a function of the business cycle position of the domestic economy. Limited to the United States, predictive ability is found to be related to selected balance sheet items, suggesting that structural features differentiate the firms that can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application, this finding may enhance our understanding of the underlying origins of aggregate fluctuations. We also propose to use the cross sectional stock market information to macro-prudential aims through an economic Value at Risk. JEL Classification: C53, C58, F37, G15Business cycle forecasting, granular shock, international linkages

Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity

We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically, adding the return and the volatility of firm-level equity prices to aggregate financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at various horizons. Importantly, not only domestic firms but also foreign firms improve business cycle predictability for a given economic area. This is not immediately visible when one takes an unconditional standpoint (i.e. an average across the sample). However, conditioning on the business cycle position of the domestic economy, the relative importance of the two sets of firms - foreign and domestic - exhibits noticeable swings across time. Analogously, the sectoral classification of the firms that in a given month retain the highest predictive power for future IP changes also varies significantly over time as a function of the business cycle position of the domestic economy. Limited to the United States, predictive ability is found to be related to selected balance sheet items, suggesting that structural features differentiate the firms that can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application, this finding may enhance our understanding of the underlying origins of aggregate fluctuations. We also propose to use the cross sectional stock market information to macro-prudential aims through an economic Value at Risk

Role of continuous glucose monitoring in diabetic patients at high cardiovascular risk. an expert-based multidisciplinary delphi consensus

Background: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) shows in more detail the glycaemic pattern of diabetic subjects and provides several new parameters (“glucometrics”) to assess patients’ glycaemia and consensually guide treatment. A better control of glucose levels might result in improvement of clinical outcome and reduce disease complications. This study aimed to gather an expert consensus on the clinical and prognostic use of CGM in diabetic patients at high cardiovascular risk or with heart disease. Methods: A list of 22 statements concerning type of patients who can benefit from CGM, prognostic impact of CGM in diabetic patients with heart disease, CGM use during acute cardiovascular events and educational issues of CGM were developed. Using a two-round Delphi methodology, the survey was distributed online to 42 Italian experts (21 diabetologists and 21 cardiologists) who rated their level of agreement with each statement on a 5-point Likert scale. Consensus was predefined as more than 66% of the panel agreeing/disagreeing with any given statement. Results: Forty experts (95%) answered the survey. Every statement achieved a positive consensus. In particular, the panel expressed the feeling that CGM can be prognostically relevant for every diabetic patient (70%) and that is clinically useful also in the management of those with type 2 diabetes not treated with insulin (87.5%). The assessment of time in range (TIR), glycaemic variability (GV) and hypoglycaemic/hyperglycaemic episodes were considered relevant in the management of diabetic patients with heart disease (92.5% for TIR, 95% for GV, 97.5% for time spent in hypoglycaemia) and can improve the prognosis of those with ischaemic heart disease (100% for hypoglycaemia, 90% for hyperglycaemia) or with heart failure (87.5% for hypoglycaemia, 85% for TIR, 87.5% for GV). The experts retained that CGM can be used and can impact the short- and long-term prognosis during an acute cardiovascular event. Lastly, CGM has a recognized educational role for diabetic subjects. Conclusions: According to this Delphi consensus, the clinical and prognostic use of CGM in diabetic patients at high cardiovascular risk is promising and deserves dedicated studies to confirm the experts’ feeling

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction >0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Spectroscopic and Electrochemical Sensing of Lanthanides with p-Extended Chromophores Incorporating Ferrocenes and a Coordinative End

In this study, we report the synthesis and characterization of three novel “push-pull” chromophores, in which multiple phenylenevinylene units are endcapped by ferrocene as donor units and malonate moieties as acceptor units. These chromophores have spectroscopic and electrochemical characteristics which consistently change according to the extension of the conjugated bridge, thus to the variation of the HOMO-LUMO band gap. The 1,3-dicarbonyl units, directly incorporated into the conjugated molecular structures, are able to coordinate Lewis acid-like cations, such as lanthanides, as confirmed by UV/Vis, 1H NMR and cyclic voltammetry studies. The UV/Vis spectroscopic response upon complexation with Sc3+ or Eu3+ as the triflate salts is rather unselective and nonlinear in going from the least to the most -extended chromophore. Binding studies in MeCN, analyzed via equilibrium-restricted factor analysis, give values between log Ka = 1.21 and 3.07 and affirm a 1:1 stoichiometry of the host:guest complexes in all cases. On the other hand, cyclic voltammetry reveals a selectivity in the response to Sc3+ coordination over Ln3+ (Eu3+, but also Lu3+ and Er3+ were tested) for the two shorter chromophores, whereas the ligand with the longest -bridge is able to sense Er3+ (E1/2 complexed/uncomplexed chromophore = 20 mV) selectively over the other lanthanides

Adherence to and early adverse events of COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of 600 Italian breastfeeding and pregnant physicians

Pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) have been excluded from COVID-19 vaccine registry and the majority of post-marketing trials, despite the recognized increased risk of severe infections and complications. The lack of efficacy and safety data prevented the formulation of specific indications/guidelines for vaccination and could have also contributed to increased vaccine hesitancy (VH) in PBW. The aim of this cross-sectional study is to assess the rate and predictors of VH, and early adverse events (AEFI) following COVID-19 vaccine in PBW with a cross-sectional study. In January 2021, a purposely designed questionnaire was administered to 600 PBW part of a Facebook group of physicians, immunized with two doses of Comirnaty®. Thirty-eight (29%) pregnant women and 13 (2.8%) breastfeeders were hesitant. The only statistically significant negative predictor of COVID-19 VH appeared to be having had the flu shot in 2020/2021 (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13–0.97; p = .044). Approximately 27% of PBW reported hesitancy toward the 2020/2021 season influenza vaccine. Among the vaccinated subjects, 51.6% of pregnant and 75.2% of breastfeeding women reported at least one symptom after the first, and 82.4% and 81.6%, respectively, after the second dose. Nausea/vomiting, fatigue, headache and arthralgia/myalgia were the most common symptoms; dizziness, shivering, syncope and limb paresthesia were rarely reported. Among infants of breastfeeding mothers, six experienced fever, five rash and four moderate and self-limiting diarrhea. Preliminary data on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in PBW and in their infants are reassuring since AEFI, although frequent, are typically mild and similar to those occurring in the general population, and in PBW after other vaccines. Larger studies with longer follow-up after vaccination are strongly recommended to develop recommendations in these patients

Marketing Para Ingenieros-MP05-201702

El curso de Marketing presenta al estudiante un panorama general y actual del proceso y de la gestión de actividades destinadas a satisfacer las necesidades y deseos del mercado entregando valor a cambio de un beneficio para la empresa u organización.El estudiante formará las bases para destacar en un mercado altamente competitivo a través de la aplicación de conceptos y herramientas que podrá aprovechar personal y profesionalmente.Marketing es un curso de especialidad de las carreras de Negocios EPE de carácter teórico y está dirigido a los estudiantes del primer ciclo. El curso busca desarrollar las competencias generales de comunicación oral y pensamiento innovador así como la competencia específica de gestión comercial todas en el nivel 1.A través del curso de Marketing el estudiante compartirá experiencias profesionales descubrirá oportunidades de mejora y será capaz de desarrollar un bosquejo de Plan de Marketing