Performance of IMPACT, CRASH and Nijmegen models in predicting six month outcome of patients with severe or moderate TBI: An external validation study

Background: External validation on different TBI populations is important in order to assess the generalizability of prognostic models to different settings. We aimed to externally validate recently developed models for prediction of six month unfavourable outcome and six month mortality. Methods: The International Neurotrauma Research Organization - Prehospital dataset (INRO-PH) was collected within an observational study between 2009-2012 in Austria and includes 778 patients with TBI of GCS < = 12. Three sets of prognostic models were externally validated: the IMPACT core and extended models, CRASH basic models and the Nijmegen models developed by Jacobs et al - all for prediction of six month unfavourable outcome and six month mortality. The external validity of the models was assessed by discrimination (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve, AUC) and calibration (calibration statistics and plots). Results: Median age in the validation cohort was 50 years and 44% had an admission GSC motor score of 1-3. Six-month mortality was 27%. Mortality could better be predicted (AUCs around 0.85) than unfavourable outcome (AUCs around 0.80). Calibration plots showed that the o

Assessment of the biomass related indoor air pollution in Kwale district in Kenya using short term monitoring

Background: Indoor air pollution remains an important health problem in some countries. Although research data on this issue is available, routine monitoring in affected areas is limited. The aims of this study were to quantify exposure to biomass- related indoor air pollution; assess the respiratory health of subjects; and explore the feasibility of routine monitoring in Kwale district, Kenya. Methods:We sampled 125 rural houses using short-term monitoring for levels of CO, CO2 and TSP. Additional exposure information was obtained using a checklist. Respiratory health was also assessed using a questionnaire, and electronic spirometer in 172 inhabitants. Results: The overall median levels of CO in the sampled houses on all study sites ranged from 5.9 (IQR 3-14.5) to 10 (5.5- 21.2) mg/m3, levels of CO2 ranged from 774 (IQR 724-846) to 839 (IQR 749-961) mg/m3) and the levels of TSP ranged from 295 (IQR 79-853 to 1384 (IQR 557-3110) \u3bcg/m3 which indicates that safe levels recommended by WHO and USEPA could be exceeded. Relatively high incidences of respiratory illness or symptoms were reported and the spirometry readings suggested impaired lung function in over 80% of respondents. Conclusion: Our results quantify that the use of biomass fuel can give rise to high levels of indoor air pollution. Given that poor lung function contributes to public health problems in rural regions of East Africa, such as Kwale in Kenya, our findings create grounds for more detailed investigations of the problem and may provide motivation for community based interventions

Assessment of health risks of policies

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessmentwith special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

The impact of population-wide rapid antigen testing on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in Slovakia

AbstractSlovakia conducted multiple rounds of population-wide rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 in late 2020, combined with a period of additional contact restrictions. Observed prevalence decreased by 58% (95% CI: 57-58%) within one week in the 45 counties that were subject to two rounds of mass testing, an estimate that remained robust when adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Adjusting for epidemic growth of 4.4% (1.1-6.9%) per day preceding the mass testing campaign, the estimated decrease in prevalence compared to a scenario of unmitigated growth was 70% (67-73%). Modelling suggests that this decrease cannot be explained solely by infection control measures, but requires the additional impact of isolation as well as quarantine of household members of those testing positive.</jats:p

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Bill and Melinda Gates FoundationpublishedVersio

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Abstract: Background: Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region, particularly among adults younger than 49 years. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries. Methods: We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year. Results: In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019. Conclusions: Injury death and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates decline rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries