Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth

In the second part of these reflections, we use the connection between marriage and first childbearing to demonstrate further issues involved in anticipatory analysis. We show that an anticipatory approach cannot be used to represent intentionality: People may marry with the intention of having a child, but the analyst should be weary of using anticipatory analysis to pick that up. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, intentionality, marriage and first childbearing)

Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research

In the second part of these reflections, we use the connection between marriage and first childbearing to demonstrate further issues involved in anticipatory analysis. We show that an anticipatory approach cannot be used to represent intentionality: People may marry with the intention of having a child, but the analyst should be wary of using anticipatory analysis to pick that up.anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, intentionality, marriage and first childbearing

Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)

Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures.anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment

Anticipatory analysis and its alternativies in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures

Older Babies - More Active Mothers? How Maternal Labor Supply Changes as the Child Grows

Female labor market activity is dependent on the presence and the age of a child, but how do the determinants develop in magnitude and significance with the child's age? Using German SOEP data from 1991 to 2006 for mothers with young children, the change in maternal labor supply when the child is one, two, and three years old is explicitly addressed. According to the tobit regression results for precise working hours, maternal labor supply becomes increasingly responsive to economic incentives - mainly to imputed wages - as the child grows