543 research outputs found

    Climate model and proxy data constraints on ocean warming across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Get PDF
    Constraining the greenhouse gas forcing, climatic warming and estimates of climate sensitivity across ancient large transient warming events is a major challenge to the palaeoclimate research community. Here we provide a new compilation and synthesis of the available marine proxy temperature data across the largest of these hyperthermals, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). This includes the application of consistent temperature calibrations to all data, including the most recent set of calibrations for archaeal lipid-derived palaeothermometry. This compilation provides the basis for an informed discussion of the likely range of PETM warming, the biases present in the existing record and an initial assessment of the geographical pattern of PETM ocean warming. To aid interpretation of the geographic variability of the proxy-derived estimates of PETM warming, we present a comparison of this data with the patterns of warming produced by high pCO2 simulations of Eocene climates using the Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) HadCM3L. On the basis of this comparison and taking into account the patterns of intermediate-water warming we estimate that the global mean surface temperature anomaly for the PETM is within the range of 4 to 5°C

    Modelling and classifying joint trajectories of self-reported mood and pain in a large cohort study

    Full text link
    It is well-known that mood and pain interact with each other, however individual-level variability in this relationship has been less well quantified than overall associations between low mood and pain. Here, we leverage the possibilities presented by mobile health data, in particular the "Cloudy with a Chance of Pain" study, which collected longitudinal data from the residents of the UK with chronic pain conditions. Participants used an App to record self-reported measures of factors including mood, pain and sleep quality. The richness of these data allows us to perform model-based clustering of the data as a mixture of Markov processes. Through this analysis we discover four endotypes with distinct patterns of co-evolution of mood and pain over time. The differences between endotypes are sufficiently large to play a role in clinical hypothesis generation for personalised treatments of comorbid pain and low mood

    NHS Dentistry in Britain:A long overdue check up

    Get PDF
    There has been longstanding international fascination with the British National Health Service since it was established in 1948. The British population itself has offered enduring support for the principles and institutions of public provision. However, coverage of the NHS has typically been uneven in academic and policy debates. There is limited understanding of some darker corners of NHS provision resulting in a partial picture of public service provision. Public dentistry has been a Cinderella service in broader debates about the NHS and a check-up is overdue. We offer a long-term view of dentistry that assesses the current state of dental health policy, including its gradual decay. We examine the purpose of dentistry and the challenge of injecting fundamental National Health Service values (weighted capitation and a focus on need) into services and which necessitates redistribution and tackling shibboleths of NHS provision. Alongside the role of political values and public attitudes, we examine the interests of professional stakeholders and how the combination of values, attitudes and interests does not currently cohere into a sustainable policy. We explore how dentistry might recover purpose and respond to need. Discussion is prescient considering an acknowledged crisis in British dental care, including widespread public and media coverage, and with 2024 being a general election year with NHS provision a familiar battleground

    The Evolution of Tyrosine-Recombinase Elements in Nematoda

    Get PDF
    Transposable elements can be categorised into DNA and RNA elements based on their mechanism of transposition. Tyrosine recombinase elements (YREs) are relatively rare and poorly understood, despite sharing characteristics with both DNA and RNA elements. Previously, the Nematoda have been reported to have a substantially different diversity of YREs compared to other animal phyla: the Dirs1-like YRE retrotransposon was encountered in most animal phyla but not in Nematoda, and a unique Pat1-like YRE retrotransposon has only been recorded from Nematoda. We explored the diversity of YREs in Nematoda by sampling broadly across the phylum and including 34 genomes representing the three classes within Nematoda. We developed a method to isolate and classify YREs based on both feature organization and phylogenetic relationships in an open and reproducible workflow. We also ensured that our phylogenetic approach to YRE classification identified truncated and degenerate elements, informatively increasing the number of elements sampled. We identified Dirs1-like elements (thought to be absent from Nematoda) in the nematode classes Enoplia and Dorylaimia indicating that nematode model species do not adequately represent the diversity of transposable elements in the phylum. Nematode Pat1-like elements were found to be a derived form of another Pat1-like element that is present more widely in animals. Several sequence features used widely for the classification of YREs were found to be homoplasious, highlighting the need for a phylogenetically-based classification scheme. Nematode model species do not represent the diversity of transposable elements in the phylum

    Predictors and outcomes of sustained, intermittent or never achieving remission in patients with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis:Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register

    Get PDF
    Objectives: Early remission is the current treatment strategy for patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and RA. Our objective was to identify baseline factors associated with achieving remission: sustained (SR), intermittent (IR) or never (NR) over a 5-year period in patients with early IP.  Methods: Clinical and demographic data of patients with IP recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) were obtained at baseline and years 1, 2, 3 and 5. Remission was defined as no tender or swollen joints (out of 51). Patients were classified as NR or PR, respectively, if they were in remission at: no assessment or ⩾3 consecutive assessments after baseline, and IR otherwise. Ordinal regression and a random effects model, respectively, were used to examine the association between baseline factors, remission group and HAQ scores over time.  Results: A total of 868 patients (66% female) were included. Of these, 54%, 34% and 12% achieved NR, IR and SR, respectively. In multivariate analysis, female sex (odds ratio, OR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.63), higher tender joint count (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96), higher HAQ (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.74), being obese (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.99), hypertensive (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.90) or depressed (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55, 1.00) at baseline were independent predictors of being in a lower remission group. IR and SR were associated with lower HAQ scores over time and lower DAS28 at year 5.  Conclusion: Women with higher tender joint count and disability at baseline, depression, obesity and hypertension were less likely to achieve remission. This information could help when stratifying patients for more aggressive therapy

    Temperature Tunable Air-Gap Etalon Filter

    Get PDF
    We report on experimental measurements of a temperature tuned air-gap etalon filter. The filter exhibits temperature dependent wavelength tuning of 54 pm/C. It has a nominal center wavelength of 532 nm. The etalon filter has a 27 pm optical bandpass and 600 pm free spectral range (finesse approximately 22). The experimental results are in close agreement with etalon theory

    Estimation of trace gas fluxes with objectively determined basis functions using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

    Get PDF
    Atmospheric trace gas inversions often attempt to attribute fluxes to a high-dimensional grid using observations. To make this problem computationally feasible, and to reduce the degree of under-determination, some form of dimension reduction is usually performed. Here, we present an objective method for reducing the spatial dimension of the parameter space in atmospheric trace gas inversions. In addition to solving for a set of unknowns that govern emissions of a trace gas, we set out a framework that considers the number of unknowns to itself be an unknown. We rely on the well-established reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to use the data to determine the dimension of the parameter space. This framework provides a single-step process that solves for both the resolution of the inversion grid, as well as the magnitude of fluxes from this grid. Therefore, the uncertainty that surrounds the choice of aggregation is accounted for in the posterior parameter distribution. The posterior distribution of this transdimensional Markov chain provides a naturally smoothed solution, formed from an ensemble of coarser partitions of the spatial domain. We describe the form of the reversible-jump algorithm and how it may be applied to trace gas inversions. We build the system into a hierarchical Bayesian framework in which other unknown factors, such as the magnitude of the model uncertainty, can also be explored. A pseudo-data example is used to show the usefulness of this approach when compared to a subjectively chosen partitioning of a spatial domain. An inversion using real data is also shown to illustrate the scales at which the data allow for methane emissions over north-west Europe to be resolved

    Evidence, Theory and Context: Using intervention mapping to develop a worksite physical activity intervention

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The workplace is an ideal setting for health promotion. Helping employees to be more physically active can not only improve their physical and mental health, but can also have economic benefits such as reduced sickness absence. The current paper describes the development of a three month theory-based intervention that aims to increase levels of moderate intensity physical activity amongst employees in sedentary occupations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The intervention was developed using an intervention mapping protocol. The intervention was also informed by previous literature, qualitative focus groups, an expert steering group, and feedback from key contacts within a range of organisations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The intervention was designed to target awareness (e.g. provision of information), motivation (e.g. goal setting, social support) and environment (e.g. management support) and to address behavioural (e.g. increasing moderate physical activity in work) and interpersonal outcomes (e.g. encourage colleagues to be more physically active). The intervention can be implemented by local facilitators without the requirement for a large investment of resources. A facilitator manual was developed which listed step by step instructions on how to implement each component along with a suggested timetable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although time consuming, intervention mapping was found to be a useful tool for developing a theory based intervention. The length of this process has implications for the way in which funding bodies allow for the development of interventions as part of their funding policy. The intervention will be evaluated in a cluster randomised trial involving 1350 employees from 5 different organisations, results available September 2009.</p

    BayesGmed : An R-package for Bayesian Causal Mediation Analysis

    Get PDF
    3 figures. A missing appendix sections added and a text about prior specification added in section 4Preprin
    corecore