Expected changes in habitat area for all the species groups.

<p>Gray diagonal lines represent no change in habitat size; circles below the lines represent species with expected habitat size shrinkages, while circles above the lines represent species with expected habitat size increases. Red lines represent fitted linear models for each species group with their correlation, intercept and slope data.</p

Accumulated proportion of species number with minimum representation in protected areas, considering: a) a 10% threshold as proposed by [16], and b) a 17% threshold as proposed by [8], according to Chilean national protected areas system (NPA), private protected areas (PPA), prioritized sites for biodiversity conservation at national level (SBN) and proposed sites for biodiversity conservation at each Chilean regional administration level (SBR).

<p>Features within strips indicate the aggregated number of species that achieve the minimum conservation target by each protection system.</p

Present and future accumulated representation of a) <i>Nothofagus</i> tree species, b) co-dominant plant species, c) ground ferns and d) epiphytic ferns, in the Chilean national protected area system (NPA), private protected areas (PPA), prioritized sites for biodiversity conservation at national level (SBN) and proposed sites for biodiversity conservation at each Chilean regional administration level (SBR).

<p>Species lists in each group are hierarchically ordered by the representation of their present habitats in NPA official system. Continuous vertical lines indicate a 10% representation threshold and dotted lines indicate a 17% representation threshold.</p

In the Right Place at the Right Time: Habitat Representation in Protected Areas of South American <i>Nothofagus</i>-Dominated Plants after a Dispersal Constrained Climate Change Scenario

<div><p>In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.</p></div

Frequencies of expected effects after climate-change scenario (%) for each species group.

<p>Features in parenthesis indicate number of species.</p

Location of <i>Nothofagus</i>-dominated temperate rainforests in South America and the geographical distribution of protected areas in Chile: national system of protected areas (NPA), private protected areas (PPA), prioritized sites for biodiversity conservation at national level (SBN) and proposed sites for biodiversity conservation at each Chilean regional administration level (SBR).

<p>Location of <i>Nothofagus</i>-dominated temperate rainforests in South America and the geographical distribution of protected areas in Chile: national system of protected areas (NPA), private protected areas (PPA), prioritized sites for biodiversity conservation at national level (SBN) and proposed sites for biodiversity conservation at each Chilean regional administration level (SBR).</p

Habitat size for each species group and modeled scenario.

<p>Top letters indicate significant differences within each species group according to paired t-tests in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0119952#pone.0119952.s007" target="_blank">S6 Table</a>.</p

Expected changes for all the species group representation.

<p>Gray diagonal lines show no change in representation in NPA, circles under the lines represent expected shrinkages in NPA representation, while circles above the lines depict expected increases in representation in NPA. Red lines represent fitted linear models for each species group with their correlation, intercept and slope data.</p

Table_1_Warmer Temperatures Affect the in situ Freezing Resistance of the Antarctic Vascular Plants.DOCX

Although positive effects on growth and reproduction of Antarctic vascular plants have been reported under warmer temperatures, it could also increase the vulnerability of these plants to freezing. Thus, we assessed in situ whether warming decreases the freezing resistance of Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica, and we compared the level and mechanism of freezing resistance of these species in the field with previous reports conducted in lab conditions. We assessed the freezing resistance of C. quitensis and D. antarctica by determining their low temperature damage (LT50), ice nucleation temperature (NT) and freezing point (FP) in three sites of the King George Island. Plants were exposed during two growing seasons to a passive increase in the air temperature (+W). +W increased by 1K the mean air temperatures, but had smaller effects on freezing temperatures. Leaf temperature of both species was on average 1.7K warmer inside +W. Overall, warming decreased the freezing resistance of Antarctic species. The LT50 increased on average 2K for C. quitensis and 2.8K for D. antarctica. In contrast, NT and FP decreased on average c. 1K in leaves of warmed plants of both species. Our results showed an averaged LT50 of -15.3°C for C. quitensis, and of -22.8°C for D. antarctica, with freezing tolerance being the freezing resistance mechanism for both species. These results were partially consistent with previous reports, and likely explanations for such discrepancies were related with methodological differences among studies. Our work is the first study reporting the level and mechanisms of freezing resistance of Antarctic vascular plants measured in situ, and we demonstrated that although both plant species exhibited a great ability to cope with freezing temperatures during the growing season, their vulnerability to suffer freezing damage under a warming scenario increase although the magnitude of this response varied across sites and species. Hence, freezing damage should be considered when predicting changes in plant responses of C. quitensis and D. antarctica under future climate conditions of the Antarctic Peninsula.</p

Acaena observational reproductive output

area, plant identit, shoot identity, number of reproductive shoots per area, individual mean fruit mass, number of fruits per shoot, and total fruit mass per shoot of the cushion plant Acaena integerrima in presence and absence of the species Embothrium coccineu