The effects of increased crop production on livestock investments in a semi-arid area: some examples from Baringo district, Kenya

The paper addresses the major premise of the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) program in Kenya which states that increased crop production in the semi-arid areas will lead to a reduction in livestock numbers since dependence on livestock for subsistence needs will be reduced. Theoretical support for this position derives from a "school of thought" in pastoral studies which posits that indigenous livestock production systems in Eastern Africa are maintained mainly for the purpose of supplying a steady source of food (i.e., pastoral products) for the pastoral population. Evidence from Njemps Location, Baringo District suggests that while increased crop production has substituted grain for pastoral products in the diet, it has not undermined the role of livestock as a form of investment. It is further argued that a focus on "statistical" averages in livestock holdings, rather than the range and variation in property ownership, informs development planners little about which group or groups of livestock owners will respond to increased opportunities for agriculture. Capital and labour requirements for irrigated agriculture in Njemps are such that the wealthier livestock owners are the individuals which are most capable of taking advantage of crop production opportunities. The dilemma in Njemps Location arises due to the fact that groups of livestock owners are responding to irrigated agriculture for different reasons: the rich pastoralists are investing in agriculture as a mechanism for supporting their livestock holdings, while the poorer families are being forced into agriculture out of necessity to meet subsistence needs and these latter households have only a minimal impact on the livestock sector. Because of this second group of households it is argued that crop production, especially low cost methods of dry land farming, should be encouraged in Njemps Location, but should not be perceived as a mechanism for supporting range management programs

Pastoralism and strategies: socio-economic change in the pastoral sector of Baringo district, Kenya

This paper outlines a proposed research plan for examining socio-economic change in the pastoral economy of the lowland region of Baringo Districta Kenya. Specially, it focuses on changes which are occurring because of (1) deterioration in the "terms of trade” with the agricultural sector (i.e., Tugen Hills) and (2) increasing demographic pressure. It is suggested that to understand socioeconomic change in a pastoral society a regional approach which includes neighboring agriculturalists must be adopted. This study should contribute to a better understanding of East African pastoralism through investigation of production strategies among pastoralists especially decisions concerning agricultural production and specialization in livestock in relation to both trade relations with agriculturalists and a changing land/people ratio. Moreover, by examining social organizational changes which are taking place because of transformations in the pastoral economy attention will be given to the manner in which the developmental cycle of the household economy interacts and sometimes constrains the pastoralist decision-maker's ability to pursue certain economic opportunities. It is hoped that the proposed research, with its focus on production alternatives to pastoralism will provide a valuable data base for the current Baringo Semi-Arid Area Development Project

Shocks, Sensitivity and Resilience: Tracking the Economic Impacts of Environmental Disaster on Assets in Ethiopia and Honduras

Droughts, hurricanes and other environmental shocks punctuate the lives of poor and vulnerable populations in many parts of the world. The direct impacts can be horrific, but what are the longer-term effects of such shocks on households and their livelihoods? Under what circumstances, and for what types of households, will shocks push households into poverty traps from which recovery is not possible? In an effort to answer these questions, this paper analyzes the asset dynamics of Ethiopian and Honduran households in the wake of severe environmental shocks. While the patterns are different across countries, both reveal worlds in which the poorest households struggle most with shocks, adopting coping strategies which are costly in terms of both short term and long term well-being. There is some evidence that shocks threaten long term poverty traps and that they tend to militate against any tendency of the poor to catch up with wealthier households. Policy implications are discussed in terms of access to markets and the design of government safety net programs.

Shocks, sensitivity and resilience: tracking the economic impacts of environmental disaster on assets in Ethiopia and Honduras

"Droughts, hurricanes and other environmental shocks punctuate the lives of poor and vulnerable populations in many parts of the world. The direct impacts can be horrific, but what are the longer-term effects of such shocks on households and their livelihoods? Under what circumstances, and for what types of households, will shocks push households into poverty traps from which recovery is not possible? In an effort to answer these questions, this paper analyses the asset dynamics of Ethiopian and Honduran households in the wake of severe environmental shocks. While the patterns are different across countries, both reveal worlds in which the poorest households struggle most with shocks, adopting coping strategies which are costly in terms of both short term and long term well-being. There is some evidence that shocks threaten long term poverty traps and that they tend to militate against any tendency of the poor to catch up with wealthier households. Policy implications are discussed in terms of access to markets and the design of government safety net programs." Authors' AbstractEnvironmental disasters, Economic situation, Impact evaluation, Droughts, Vulnerability, households, Livelihoods, Poverty, coping strategies, Safety nets, Government policy,

LIVESTOCK PRICING IN THE NORTHERN KENYAN RANGELANDS

This paper uses detailed, transactions-level data and a structural-heteroskedasticity-in-mean model to identify the determinants of livestock producer prices for pastoralists in the drylands of northern Kenya. The empirical results confirm the importance of animal characteristics, periodic events that predictably shift local demand or supply, and especially rainfall on the prices pastoralists receive for animals. Price risk premia are consistently negative in these livestock markets. The imposition of quarantines has a sharp negative effect on expected producer prices in the pastoral areas, revealing a distributionally regressive approach to animal disease control in Kenya.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Challenging Orthodoxies: Understanding Poverty in Pastoral Areas of East Africa

Understanding and alleviating poverty in Africa continues to receive considerable attention by a range of diverse actors, including politicians, international celebrities, academics, activists, and practitioners. Despite the onslaught of interest, there surprisingly is little agreement on what constitutes poverty in rural Africa, how it should be assessed, and what should be done to alleviate it. Based on data from an interdisciplinary study of pastoralism in northern Kenya, this article examines issues of poverty among one of the continents most vulnerable groups, pastoralists, and challenges the application of such orthodox proxies as incomes/expenditures, geographic remoteness, and market integration. It argues that current poverty debates homogenize the concept of pastoralist by failing to acknowledge the diverse livelihoods and wealth differentiation that fall under the term. The article concludes that what is not needed is another development label (stereotype) that equates pastoralism with poverty, thereby empowering outside interests to transform rather than strengthen pastoral livelihoods

Assessing the value of climate forecast information for pastoralists: Evidence from southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya

Climatic variability exerts tremendous influence on the livelihoods and well-being of pastoralists who inhabit the arid and semi-arid lands of the Horn of Africa. Recent advances in climate forecasting technologies have raised the intriguing prospect of reasonably accurate forecasts of coming seasons' rainfall patterns. Several donors and governments in the region are keenly interested in these technologies and in developing forecast delivery channels on the assumption that this information will prove valuable to the vulnerable populations it is meant to help not only indirectly, as an input into top-down early warning systems, but also directly, as a basis for improving choice under uncertainty. We explore the value of such external climate forecast information to pastoralists in a large study area spanning southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya using original data collected using both open-ended qualitative methods to identify and understand indigenous climate forecasting methods and quantitative data collected using survey instruments fielded in two rounds, one before and one after the long rains of 2001. The data show that pastoralists rely heavily on indigenous forecasting methods — in terms of having both access to and confidence in these methods — while external forecasts are less commonly received or believed. We elicited pastoralists' subjective, probabilistic expectations of the coming season's rainfall and find that neither use of nor belief in external forecasts causes any appreciable change in respondents' seasonal rainfall expectations. Moreover, relatively few pastoralists act on their own climate expectations, no matter how formed. In sum, climate forecast information does not seem a limiting factor at present in pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa, not least of which because of the existence of a vibrant and still-relevant tradition of indigenous forecasting

Electro-optically tunable microring resonators in lithium niobate

Optical microresonators have recently attracted a growing attention in the photonics community. Their applications range from quantum electro-dynamics to sensors and filtering devices for optical telecommunication systems, where they are likely to become an essential building block. The integration of nonlinear and electro-optical properties in the resonators represents a very stimulating challenge, as it would incorporate new and more advanced functionality. Lithium niobate is an excellent candidate material, being an established choice for electro-optic and nonlinear optical applications. Here we report on the first realization of optical microring resonators in submicrometric thin films of lithium niobate. The high index contrast films are produced by an improved crystal ion slicing and bonding technique using benzocyclobutene. The rings have radius R=100 um and their transmission spectrum has been tuned using the electro-optic effect. These results open new perspectives for the use of lithium niobate in chip-scale integrated optical devices and nonlinear optical microcavities.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

Investigating the missing data mechanism in quality of life outcomes: a comparison of approaches

Background: Missing data is classified as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). Knowing the mechanism is useful in identifying the most appropriate analysis. The first aim was to compare different methods for identifying this missing data mechanism to determine if they gave consistent conclusions. Secondly, to investigate whether the reminder-response data can be utilised to help identify the missing data mechanism. Methods: Five clinical trial datasets that employed a reminder system at follow-up were used. Some quality of life questionnaires were initially missing, but later recovered through reminders. Four methods of determining the missing data mechanism were applied. Two response data scenarios were considered. Firstly, immediate data only; secondly, all observed responses (including reminder-response). Results: In three of five trials the hypothesis tests found evidence against the MCAR assumption. Logistic regression suggested MAR, but was able to use the reminder-collected data to highlight potential MNAR data in two trials. Conclusion: The four methods were consistent in determining the missingness mechanism. One hypothesis test was preferred as it is applicable with intermittent missingness. Some inconsistencies between the two data scenarios were found. Ignoring the reminder data could potentially give a distorted view of the missingness mechanism. Utilising reminder data allowed the possibility of MNAR to be considered.The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate. Research Training Fellowship (CZF/1/31