Structural Vector Error Correction Modeling of Integrated Sportfishery Data

We demonstrate how to specify and estimate a time series model that can isolate the effects of changes in fishery policy and forecast the outcome of policy changes in the context of changing climate and economic factors. The approach is illustrated with data from the headboat fishery for red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico. The initial data analysis finds that effort and harvest are cointegrated series and that effort appears to respond somewhat to past changes in harvest. This suggested a structural vector error correction model specification. Model estimation results indicate that seasonal closures directly influence both harvest and effort, whereas bag and minimum size limits only affect harvest directly. Also, climate activity has a moderate influence on this fishery, mainly via changes in effort. Model forecasts are evaluated relative to a more naïve specification using out-of-sample data and the use of the model for policy analysis is demonstrated.Climate, Gulf of Mexico, red snapper, sportfishing demand, structural vector error correction, time series, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q22 Q26 Q28 C32,

On-Farm Costos of Reducing environmental degradation under risk

Farmers respond to environmental regulations by adjusting production practices so as to comply while minimizing their loss in expected income. Ultimately the cost of agro environmental regulation is determined by farm level adjust¬ments. Our farm level simulation framework assesses economic and environmental impacts of hypothetical pesticide restrictions in the context of continuing soil conservation efforts.

Optimal Crop-Insurance Strategies under Climate Variability: Contrasting Insurer and Farmer Interests

This study analyzes the potential synergies and conflicts of interest between farmers and insurers in the selection of an optimal crop insurance contract. Special attention is given to how climate information influences this decision-making process. To do so, we consider a representative 40 hectares, rainfed, cotton-peanut farm located in Jackson County in Florida. Our results show that year-to-year ENSO-based climate variability affects farmers income and insurers gains according to crop insurance contracts. Additionally, introduction of ENSO-based climate forecasts presents a significant impact on the selection of a particular contract. We conclude that insurers and farmers can bridge their divergent interests by improving their understanding of the effect of climate conditions on the development of sustainable business plans.Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices

We evaluate ENSO forecasts when prices are variable and ENSO is a portion of overall climatic variability. Forecast responses include crop mix, cultivar,fertilization, and planting date. Price changes reduce forecast value by excluding responses. Predictable income variability (ENSO-related), as a share of the total, evaluates forecast skill.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received.risk perceptions, learning, Bayesian learning, event markets, prediction markets, favorite-longshot bias, hurricanes

The economic value of climate information

Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Cerealicultura; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; ArgentinaFil: Letson, David. University Of Miami. Rosenstiel School Of Marine Atmospheric Science. Meteorology And Physical Oceanography; Estados UnidosFil: Podesta, Guillermo. University Of Miami. Rosenstiel School Of Marine Atmospheric Science. Meteorology And Physical Oceanography; Estados Unido

CONFINED ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND MANURE NUTRIENTS

Using data from the Census of Agriculture on animal inventory and sales, we estimate manure nutrient production on farms with confined livestock. Using reported on-farm production of crops on these same farms, we estimate the nutrient uptake for major field crops and pastureland. This enables us to examine the balance between manure nutrient production and nutrient need measured by crop uptake at a farm level. Examination at alternative spatial scales, shows that 75 percent of counties in the U.S. have farms that produce more manure nutrients than can be assimilated on the farm of production (excess nitrogen).The vast majority of the counties that produce excess nitrogen have adequate land in the county to spread the manure at agronomic rates. Thus, proposed policies that focus on land application have the potential to limit manure nutrient movement to waterways in most areas, if properly managed. However, moving manure to crop farms that formerly had not used manure will increase costs. There were about 5 percent of counties where the manure nitrogen production levels from confined animal production exceeded half the nitrogen assimilative capacity of all the cropland and pastureland in the county. These areas have the greatest need for mechanisms to encourage off-farm solutions to utilize manure as a feedstock for commercial enterprises or central processing.Livestock Production/Industries,

Do Surgical Margins Affect Local Recurrence and Survival in Extremity, Nonmetastatic, High-grade Osteosarcoma?

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival for all patients with osteosarcoma using current aggressive adjuvant chemotherapy and surgical resection is between 60% and 70%. In patients who present with nonmetastatic, high-grade extremity osteosarcoma of bone, limb salvage surgery is favored, when appropriate, over amputation to preserve the limb, because limb salvage may lead to a superior quality of life compared with amputation. However, concern remains that in the attempt to preserve the limb, close or microscopically positive surgical margins may have an adverse effect on event-free survival. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) Does a positive or close surgical margin increase the likelihood of a local recurrence? (2) Does a positive or close surgical margin adversely affect the development of metastatic disease? (3) What is the relationship of surgical margin on overall survival? METHODS: With institutional review board approval, we retrospectively evaluated 241 patients treated at our institution between 1999 and 2011. Exclusion criteria included nonextremity locations, metastatic disease at initial presentation, low- or intermediate-grade osteosarcoma, treatment regimens that did not follow National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines, incomplete medical records, and any part of treatment performed outside of Moffitt Cancer Center or All Children's Hospital. Fifty-one patients were included in the final analysis, of whom 31 (61%) had followup data at a minimum of 2 years or whose clinical status was known but had died before 2 years of followup. Margin status was defined as (1) microscopically positive; (2) negative ≤ 1 mm; and (3) negative > 1 mm. Margin status, histologic response (tumor percent necrosis), type of osteosarcoma, type of surgery, presence of local recurrence, metastatic disease, and overall survival were recorded for each patient. The mean age was 22 years (range, 12-74 years) and the mean followup was 3 years (range, 0.1-14 years). Margin status was positive in 10% (five of 51), negative ≤ 1 mm 26% (13 of 51), and negative > 1 mm 65% (33 of 51). RESULTS: Local recurrence was noted to be 14% (seven of 51) at 3.4 years. After controlling for relevant confounding variables, the presence of a positive margin compared with a negative margin > 1 mm was the only independent predictor of local recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 8.006; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.314-48.781; p = 0.0241). At a mean of 3.4 years, 29% (15 of 51) of the patients developed metastatic disease with no difference with the numbers available in the probability of developing metastatic disease among the three margin groups (p = 0.614). Overall survival at 3.8 years was 75% (38 of 51). After controlling for relevant confounding variables, we found that patients with positive margins were more likely to die from disease than those with negative margins (HR, 6.26; 95% CI, 1.50-26.14; p = 0.0119); no other independent predictors of survival were identified. CONCLUSIONS: With the numbers of patients we had, we observed that patients with extremity, nonmetastatic, high-grade osteosarcoma who had positive margins showed a higher probability of local recurrence in comparison to those with negative surgical margins. Given that positive margins appear to be associated with poorer survival in patients with high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremities, surgeons should strive to achieve negative margins, but larger studies are needed to confirm these findings. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study

CONFINED ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND MANURE NUTRIENTS

Census of agriculture data were used to estimate manure nutrient production and the capacity of cropland and pastureland to assimilate nutrients. Most farms (78 percent for nitrogen and 69 percent for phosphorus) have adequate land on which it is physically feasible to apply the manure produced onfarm at agronomic rates. (The costs of applying manure at these rates have not been assessed). Even so, manure that is produced on operations that cannot fully apply it to their own land at agronomic rates accounts for 60 percent of the Nation's manure nitrogen and 70 percent of the manure phosphorus. In these cases, most counties with farms that produce "excess" nutrients have adequate crop acres not associated with animal operations, but within the county, on which it is feasible to spread the manure at agronomic rates. However, barriers to moving manure to other farms need to be studied. About 20 percent of the Nation's onfarm excess manure nitrogen is produced in counties that have insufficient cropland for its application at agronomic rates (23 percent for phosphorus). For areas without adequate land, alternatives to local land application-such as energy production-will need to be developed.Manure, nutrients, manure nutrients, animal waste, confined livestock, confined animal feeding operation, CAFO, feedlot beef, dairy cows, swine, poultry, animal unit, manure nitrogen, manure phosphorus, water quality, Livestock Production/Industries,