Southern Ocean sea surface temperature synthesis: Part 1. Evaluation of temperature proxies at glacial-interglacial time scales

Quaternary interglacial climates are often used as analogues for how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to future climate warming. Southern Ocean marine sediments provide an important paleoclimate archive in this respect. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions in the Southern Ocean depend exclusively on the fossils or geochemical signatures of planktic organisms, but the strengths of these SST proxies remain poorly quantified in this region. To improve confidence in paleoclimate reconstructions, Part 1 of this two-part study evaluates the reliability of Southern Ocean SST proxies employed at Quaternary glacial-interglacial time scales, focusing on three key potential problems: advection/dispersion, seasonality, and non-thermal influences. We find that foraminifera assemblages and long-chain alkenones likely provide the most reliable SST reconstructions in this region. Diatom assemblages and the Globigerina bulloides Mg/Ca ratio are considered to be ‘moderately’ reliable. Both are subject to potentially significant non-thermal influences, and diatom assemblages are likely modified by species-dependent advection as they sink to the sea floor. Nevertheless, diatoms are valuable at higher latitudes, since alkenones and foraminifera assemblages lose sensitivity below ∼1 to 2 °C. Dinocyst assemblages, radiolarian assemblages, GDGTs and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma Mg/Ca are considered the least reliable in the Southern Ocean, due to weak calibrations, poorly-constrained non-thermal influences, and/or strong advection bias. We note that the seasonality of all proxies remains poorly constrained. Overall, Southern Ocean SST reconstructions using the recommended proxies and calibrations should be robust when averaging across multiple sites and proxy types, but should be treated with caution when analysing spatial variability, a small number of sites, or a single proxy type. Quantifying the effect of advection should be a priority for all planktic groups employed in Southern Ocean paleoclimate reconstructions.publishedVersio

Impact of seasonal fluctuations of ice velocity on decadal trends observed in Southwest Greenland

By tracking the feature displacement between satellite images spaced approximately one year apart, surface runoff has been shown to have a long-term impact on the average ice flow of a land-terminating sector of Greenland. In this study, we revisit the multi-year trends in ice flow by assessing more carefully the impact of seasonal fluctuation in velocity on the annual mean ice velocity. We find that, depending on the length and period used to measure displacement, seasonal fluctuations do have an impact on observed velocities on up to 15%, and can affect decadal trends. Nevertheless, the magnitude of this fluctuation is small enough to confirm the general slowdown observed during the 2000–2012 period. Between 2012 and 2019, we find significant re-acceleration of low-lying glaciers tongue but velocity trends elsewhere are generally insignificant and not spatially consistent. Finally, we propose a more selective approach to recovering velocity trends using satellite imagery that involves using only measurements where the image pair starting date is before summer, in order to have comparable measurements for every year, sampling a melt season and the following winter.publishedVersio

Simulated Cycles of East Asian Temperature and Precipitation Over the Past 425 ka

Records from a wide range of geological archives covering the last few glacial-interglacial cycles show large inconsistencies in the East Asian summer monsoon variability, which severely hampers our understanding of the evolution and potential mechanisms of the regional East Asian climate on orbital timescales. Here, we examine the simulated temperature and precipitation in East Asia based on a series of equilibrium simulations conducted for the past 425 ka, and we investigate the sensitivity of temperature and precipitation to potential forcings. Our simulations show that, in East Asia, the seasonal mean temperature is dominated by a ∼20-kyr cycle, and the annual mean temperature (AMT) is dominated by a ∼100-kyr cycle, which is consistent with previous modeling efforts and geological reconstructions. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the greenhouse gas concentration, in combination with the ice volume, is the dominant force for the variations of AMT in East Asia on orbital timescales. For the precipitation in East Asia, our equilibrium simulations and additional sensitivity experiments, together with comprehensive model-data intercomparison analysis, suggest that the cycles of simulated annual mean precipitation over East Asia are highly model-dependent, although the dominant ∼20-kyr cycle in summer precipitation appears to be a robust feature. Overall, the results highlight the large model uncertainty with regard to the relative roles of forcings in hydroclimate variations in East Asia on orbital time scales. There is, therefore, an urgent need to implement more realistic precipitation schemes in models in order to decrease the model spread in simulated precipitation.publishedVersio

How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

The last interglacial period (LIG, ~ 129–116 thousand years ago) provides the most recent case study for multi-millennial polar warming above pre-industrial level and a respective response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to this warming, as well as a test bed for climate and ice sheet models. Past changes in Greenland ice sheet thickness and surface temperature during this period were recently derived from the NEEM ice core records, North-West Greenland. The NEEM paradox has emerged from an estimated large local warming above pre-industrial level (7.5 ± 1.8 °C at the deposition site 126 ka ago without correction for any overall ice sheet altitude changes between the LIG and pre-industrial) based on water isotopes, together with limited local ice thinning, suggesting more resilience of the real Greenland ice sheet than shown in some ice sheet models. Here, we provide an independent assessment of the average LIG Greenland surface warming using ice core air isotopic composition (δ15N) and relationships between accumulation rate and temperature. The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C (+8 °C being the most likely estimate according to constraints on past accumulation rate) compared to the pre-industrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes. Moreover, we show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant firn shrinking by ~ 15 m. Climate simulations performed with present day ice sheet topography lead to much smaller warming but larger amplitudes (up to 5 °C) can be obtained from changes in sea ice extent and ice sheet topography. Still, ice sheet simulations forced by 5 °C surface warming lead to large ice sheet decay that are not compatible with existing data. Our new, independent temperature constrain therefore reinforces the NEEM paradox

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded

Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate

Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Ch1.2: Cryosphere tipping points.

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses