Opinion disparity in hypergraphs with community structure

The division of a social group into subgroups with opposing opinions, which we refer to as opinion disparity, is a prevalent phenomenon in society. This phenomenon has been modeled by including mechanisms such as opinion homophily, bounded confidence interactions, and social reinforcement mechanisms. In this paper we study a complementary mechanism for the formation of opinion disparity based on higher-order interactions, i.e., simultaneous interactions between multiple agents. We present an extension of the planted partition model for uniform hypergraphs as a simple model of community structure and consider the hypergraph SIS model on a hypergraph with two communities where the binary ideology can spread via links (pairwise interactions) and triangles (three-way interactions). We approximate this contagion process with a mean-field model and find that for strong enough community structure, the two communities can hold very different average opinions. We determine the regimes of structural and infectious parameters for which this opinion disparity can exist and find that the existence of these disparities is much more sensitive to the triangle community structure than to the link community structure. We show that the existence and type of opinion disparities are extremely sensitive to differences in the sizes of the two communities.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Tracking seasonal changes in North Sea zooplankton trophic dynamics using stable isotopes

Trophodynamics of meso-zooplankton in the North Sea (NS) were assessed at a site in the southern NS, and at a shallow and a deep site in the central NS. Offshore and neritic species from different ecological niches, including Calanus spp., Temora spp. and Sagitta spp., were collected during seven cruises over 14 months from 2007 to 2008. Bulk stable isotope (SI) analysis, phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) compositions, and δ 13CPLFA data of meso-zooplankton and particulate organic matter (POM) were used to describe changes in zooplankton relative trophic positions (RTPs) and trophodynamics. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that the RTPs of zooplankton in the North Sea vary spatially and seasonally, in response to hydrographic variability, with the microbial food web playing an important role at times. Zooplankton RTPs tended to be higher during winter and lower during the phytoplankton bloom in spring. RTPs were highest for predators such as Sagitta sp. and Calanus helgolandicus and lowest for small copepods such as Pseudocalanus elongatus and zoea larvae (Brachyura). δ 15NPOM-based RTPs were only moderate surrogates for animals’ ecological niches, because of the plasticity in source materials from the herbivorous and the microbial loop food web. Common (16:0) and essential (eicosapentaenoic acid, EPA and docosahexaenoic acid, DHA) structural lipids showed relatively constant abundances. This could be explained by incorporation of PLFAs with δ 13C signatures which followed seasonal changes in bulk δ 13CPOM and PLFA δ 13CPOM signatures. This study highlighted the complementarity of three biogeochemical approaches for trophodynamic studies and substantiated conceptual views of size-based food web analysis, in which small individuals of large species may be functionally equivalent to large individuals of small species. Seasonal and spatial variability was also important in altering the relative importance of the herbivorous and microbial food webs

Speech Communication

Contains reports on five research projects.C.J. Lebel FellowshipNational Institutes of Health (Grant 5 T32 NSO7040)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS04332)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 R01 NS21183)National Institutes of Health (Grant 5 P01 NS13126)National Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734)National Science Foundation (Grant BNS 8418733)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0254)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0341)U.S. Navy - Naval Electronic Systems Command (Contract N00039-85-C-0290)National Institutes of Health (Grant RO1-NS21183), subcontract with Boston UniversityNational Institutes of Health (Grant 1 PO1-NS23734), subcontract with the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmar

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world

On limitations of uniplex networks for modeling multiplex contagion.

Many network contagion processes are inherently multiplex in nature, yet are often reduced to processes on uniplex networks in analytic practice. We therefore examine how data modeling choices can affect the predictions of contagion processes. We demonstrate that multiplex contagion processes are not simply the union of contagion processes over their constituent uniplex networks. We use multiplex network data from two different contexts-(1) a behavioral network to represent their potential for infectious disease transmission using a "simple" epidemiological model, and (2) users from online social network sites to represent their potential for information spread using a threshold-based "complex" contagion process. Our results show that contagion on multiplex data is not captured accurately in models developed from the uniplex networks even when they are combined, and that the nature of the differences between the (combined) uniplex and multiplex results depends on the specific spreading process over these networks

On limitations of uniplex networks for modeling multiplex contagion

Many network contagion processes are inherently multiplex in nature, yet are often reduced to processes on uniplex networks in analytic practice. We therefore examine how data modeling choices can affect the predictions of contagion processes. We demonstrate that multiplex contagion processes are not simply the union of contagion processes over their constituent uniplex networks. We use multiplex network data from two different contexts -- (1) a behavioral network to represent their potential for infectious disease transmission using a "simple" epidemiological model, and (2) users from online social network sites to represent their potential for information spread using a threshold-based "complex" contagion process. Our results show that contagion on multiplex data is not captured accurately in models developed from the uniplex networks even when they are combined, and that the nature of the differences between the (combined) uniplex and multiplex results depends on the specific spreading process over these networks.Comment: Main text: 12 pages, 3 figures; Supporting information: 5 pages, 5 figure